The Drudge Report picked up Coleman’s essay, and within days its author was a cause célèbre on right-wing talk radio and cable television, beaming into Glenn Beck’s TV show via satellite from the KUSI studios to elaborate on the scientists’ conspiracy. “They all have an agenda,” Coleman told Beck, “an environmental and political agenda that said, ‘Let’s pile on here, we’re all going to make a lot of money, we’re going to get research grants, we’re going to get awards, we’re going to become famous.’”
Along with the appearances on Beck’s and Rush Limbaugh’s programs came speaking offers, and soon Coleman was on the conference circuit, a newly minted member of the loose-knit confederation of professional skeptics. (Coleman insists his views on climate change are apolitical, and says he has turned down offers to speak at Tea Parties and other conservative events.) His interviews and speeches that have been posted to YouTube have, in some cases, been viewed hundreds of thousands of times.
None of it would have had much of an impact, but for Coleman’s résumé. For the many Americans who don’t understand the difference between weather—the short-term behavior of the atmosphere—and climate—the broader system in which weather happens—Coleman’s professional background made him a genuine authority on global warming. It was an impression that Coleman encouraged. Global warming “is not something you ‘believe in,’” he wrote in his essay. “It is science; the science of meteorology. This is my field of life-long expertise.”
Except that it wasn’t. Coleman had spent half a century in the trenches of TV weathercasting; he had once been an accredited meteorologist, and remained a virtuoso forecaster. But his work was more a highly technical art than a science. His degree, received fifty years earlier at the University of Illinois, was in journalism. And then there was the fact that the research that Coleman was rejecting wasn’t “the science of meteorology” at all—it was the science of climatology, a field in which Coleman had spent no time whatsoever.
Coleman’s crusade caught the eye of Kris Wilson, an Emory University journalism lecturer and a former TV news director and weatherman himself, and Wilson got to wondering. He surveyed a group of TV meteorologists, asking them to respond to Coleman’s claim that global warming was a scam. The responses stunned him. Twenty-nine percent of the 121 meteorologists who replied agreed with Coleman—not that global warming was unproven, or unlikely, but that it was a scam.* Just 24 percent of them believed that humans were responsible for most of the change in climate over the past half century—half were sure this wasn’t true, and another quarter were “neutral” on the issue. “I think it scares and disturbs a lot of people in the science community,” Wilson told me recently. This was the most important scientific question of the twenty-first century thus far, and a matter on which more than eight out of ten climate researchers were thoroughly convinced. And three quarters of the TV meteorologists Wilson surveyed believe the climatologists were wrong.

... except that the reason most meteorologists are skeptical of "climate science" is that they do understand meteorology and basic physics, and the overwhelming body of evidence at this time is that the fundamental drivers of weather -- solar variation and the hydrological cycle -- are in fact the fundamental drivers of climate change. While at the same time, the actual evidence for CO2 having even a minor role in the 1980-2000 warming spell remains, after two decades and $100 billion, zero.
Obviously Mr. Homans just doesn't understand the science.
#1 Posted by Craig Goodrich, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 02:09 PM
I’ll paraphrase some of my original comments from the January 2010 article.
Most meteorologist are skeptical of “climate change” because while they may not have as detailed a grasp of the work of climate modeling specifically they understand the limitations of computer modeling in general as it relates to forecasting and have daily interaction with its usefulness and limitations. As they have firsthand knowledge of the limitations of computer modeling in weather forecasting its not a stretch to apply that same experience to climate modeling.
An aspect of the story that I didn’t really notice originally was Homans’ rather backhanded dismissal of meteorologist or TV weathermen as unqualified to comment on the subject because they weren’t researchers and lacked graduate degrees. I’ll remember that the next time I read an article quoting Bill McKibben on climate change or Michael Pollen on agriculture.
#2 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 02:52 PM
Anyone ever hear of 'The Butterfly Effect" before? Guess what - it is based on the work of one Professor Lorenz, a meteorologist.
So "warming trends were far more dependent on the water vapor in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide" has been "debunked?" Uh, the claims about CO2 is that an increase may cause an increase of water vapor and thus the Greenhouse Effect.
Now, I agree that CO2 has an effect and that we humans are adding more of it. How much more and just how big an effect, and even whether a global increase of up to four degrees Centigrade is good or bad, lots of discussion - and generally I'd trust a meteorologist over a civil (railroad) engineer, and the historical record[s] over either.
#3 Posted by John A, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 04:27 PM
Weathermen, TV personalities--Americans generally--are optimists. We tend to believe that, even if we can't know for sure there won't be a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, in general things are getting better.
I think that's why so many reject environmentalism generally, and climate change specifically. The message of both is that things are, in fact, not getting better. Some people just refuse to believe it. It's kind of unAmerican.
#4 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 05:40 PM
Meteorology = Climatology
Accounting = Economics
Mom's chicken soup = Pharmaceutical Industry
#5 Posted by David Zimmerman, CJR on Wed 21 Sep 2011 at 04:29 PM
This is an oddly positioned article, written with such an obvious prejudice that it is almost laughable. Attempting to make such a distinction between meteorologists and 'climatologists' ignores that fact that it is only in the last 10 or 20 years that there has even been such a specialty offered by universities. Prior to that, those studying climate issues studied in the geography department! It like telling a GP that his general medical opinion doesn't count because he isn't a oncologist. Shessh! Any meteorologist certainly has a better handle on the science involved in climate issues than Al Gore. Since climatology depends more on physics than meteorology, then we should expect climatologists to listen to those physicists. Many of the leading skeptics are just that, PhD holding physics professors of our major universities. Odd, isn't it.
#6 Posted by Kip Hansen, CJR on Thu 22 Sep 2011 at 04:03 PM
The comments shown here are frightening, but they do show how anti-intellectualism is running rampant. Meteorology was not very distinct from Climatology until climate science began to be really physics-based, requiring more than describing and reporting (just as Astrophysics arose from Astronomy -- a really different mind-set). If most TV meteorologists aren't science-trained, it stands to reason they probably DO NOT have a basic idea of physics (neither do most liberal arts college professors). What meteorologists have to offer is important, but I know enough to realize some offer more than their expertise justifies. That's not "dismissing" them, it's using my discretion, based on my own knowledge and experience, to weigh what I'm told. For example, the statistics related to meteorological forecasting do not carry over simplistically into climatological models, so conclusions don't, either. It is not evil per se to have prejudice; it is impossible for me to judge science-based writing while forgetting that I have spent 30+ years as a Ph.D. scientist. Should I ignore that experience? Should I ignore the experience and record of the writer? Call that "prejudice" if you want, to slander facts and people you find inconvenient. Those facts are still facts.
Lorenz? Please don't mischaracterize his work. The major point is that Chaotic processes are deterministic (they have causes, even if we don't have a handle on all of them) but unpredictable (well, we don't -- can't -- know everything). As Climatology uncovers and understands more factors that influence climate, integrated models become more predictive, and the uncertainties smaller -- but they'll never be zero, just as meteorological models can't forecast the exact temperature on my deck at two AM.
And the world is in the hands of people like these, and like Inhofe. Sigh.
Thanks to Mr. Homans.
#7 Posted by Bel Campbell, CJR on Wed 5 Oct 2011 at 01:24 PM