In the absence of a clear answer, several institutions—the National Environmental Education Foundation (NEEF), the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research among them—have decided that education is the problem, and have launched projects aimed at teaching the weathercasters the basics of climatology. All proceed from the assumption that unreachable skeptics like Coleman are few and far between, and that most meteorologists are more uncertain than adamant, lost amid the Internet’s slurry of fact and counterfact. “While there is a group that seems to have made up their mind about climate change, there’s still a substantial portion that’s interested in learning more,” says Sara Espinoza, a program director at NEET. The AMS—which finds its credibility threatened by its televised emissaries a second time—is working with NEEF on a do-it-yourself climate science education package for meteorologists that points them to government data and peer-reviewed research. It is part of the AMS’s broader “station scientist” program, which aims to give meteorologists the tools they need to become the go-to authorities in their newsrooms on all scientific subjects, not just the weather. In essence, it is a doubling down on the wager that the AMS made fifty-five years ago: if viewers are going to assume weathercasters are experts anyway, we might as well try to make them experts.
It remains a laudable goal. But in my own conversations with skeptical meteorologists, I began to think that that earlier effort had helped create the problem in the first place. The AMS had succeeded in making many weathercasters into responsible authorities in their own wheelhouse, but somewhere along the way that narrow professional authority had been misconstrued as a sort of all-purpose scientific legitimacy. It had bolstered meteorologists’ sense of their expertise outside of their own discipline, without necessarily improving the expertise itself. Most scientists are loath to speak to subjects outside of their own field, and with good reason—you wouldn’t expect a dentist to know much about, say, the geological strata of the Grand Canyon. But meteorologists, by virtue of typically being the only people with any science background at their stations, are under the opposite pressure—to be conversant in anything and everything scientific. This is a good thing if you see yourself as a science communicator, someone who sifts the good information from the bad—but it becomes a problem when you start to see scientific authority springing from your own haphazardly informed intuition, as many of the skeptic weathercasters do. Among the certified meteorologists Wilson surveyed in 2008, 79 percent considered it appropriate to educate their communities about climate change. Few of them, however, had taken the steps necessary to fully educate themselves about it. When asked which source of information on climate change they most trusted, 22 percent named the AMS. But the next most popular answer, with 16 percent, was “no one.” The third was “myself.”
The biggest difference I noticed between the meteorologists who rejected climate science and those who didn’t was not how much they knew about the subject, but how much they knew about how much they knew—how clearly they recognized the limits of their own training. Among those in the former category was Bob Breck, the AMS-certified chief meteorologist at Fox affiliate WVUE in New Orleans and a thirty-two-year veteran of the business. Breck rejected the notion of human-driven climate change wholesale—“I just find that [idea] to be quite arrogant,” he told me. Instead, when Breck talked to local schools and Rotaries and Kiwanis clubs about climate change, he presented his own ideas: warming trends were far more dependent on the water vapor in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, he told them, and the appearance of an uptick in global temperatures was the result of the declining number of weather stations in cold rural areas.

... except that the reason most meteorologists are skeptical of "climate science" is that they do understand meteorology and basic physics, and the overwhelming body of evidence at this time is that the fundamental drivers of weather -- solar variation and the hydrological cycle -- are in fact the fundamental drivers of climate change. While at the same time, the actual evidence for CO2 having even a minor role in the 1980-2000 warming spell remains, after two decades and $100 billion, zero.
Obviously Mr. Homans just doesn't understand the science.
#1 Posted by Craig Goodrich, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 02:09 PM
I’ll paraphrase some of my original comments from the January 2010 article.
Most meteorologist are skeptical of “climate change” because while they may not have as detailed a grasp of the work of climate modeling specifically they understand the limitations of computer modeling in general as it relates to forecasting and have daily interaction with its usefulness and limitations. As they have firsthand knowledge of the limitations of computer modeling in weather forecasting its not a stretch to apply that same experience to climate modeling.
An aspect of the story that I didn’t really notice originally was Homans’ rather backhanded dismissal of meteorologist or TV weathermen as unqualified to comment on the subject because they weren’t researchers and lacked graduate degrees. I’ll remember that the next time I read an article quoting Bill McKibben on climate change or Michael Pollen on agriculture.
#2 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 02:52 PM
Anyone ever hear of 'The Butterfly Effect" before? Guess what - it is based on the work of one Professor Lorenz, a meteorologist.
So "warming trends were far more dependent on the water vapor in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide" has been "debunked?" Uh, the claims about CO2 is that an increase may cause an increase of water vapor and thus the Greenhouse Effect.
Now, I agree that CO2 has an effect and that we humans are adding more of it. How much more and just how big an effect, and even whether a global increase of up to four degrees Centigrade is good or bad, lots of discussion - and generally I'd trust a meteorologist over a civil (railroad) engineer, and the historical record[s] over either.
#3 Posted by John A, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 04:27 PM
Weathermen, TV personalities--Americans generally--are optimists. We tend to believe that, even if we can't know for sure there won't be a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, in general things are getting better.
I think that's why so many reject environmentalism generally, and climate change specifically. The message of both is that things are, in fact, not getting better. Some people just refuse to believe it. It's kind of unAmerican.
#4 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 05:40 PM
Meteorology = Climatology
Accounting = Economics
Mom's chicken soup = Pharmaceutical Industry
#5 Posted by David Zimmerman, CJR on Wed 21 Sep 2011 at 04:29 PM
This is an oddly positioned article, written with such an obvious prejudice that it is almost laughable. Attempting to make such a distinction between meteorologists and 'climatologists' ignores that fact that it is only in the last 10 or 20 years that there has even been such a specialty offered by universities. Prior to that, those studying climate issues studied in the geography department! It like telling a GP that his general medical opinion doesn't count because he isn't a oncologist. Shessh! Any meteorologist certainly has a better handle on the science involved in climate issues than Al Gore. Since climatology depends more on physics than meteorology, then we should expect climatologists to listen to those physicists. Many of the leading skeptics are just that, PhD holding physics professors of our major universities. Odd, isn't it.
#6 Posted by Kip Hansen, CJR on Thu 22 Sep 2011 at 04:03 PM
The comments shown here are frightening, but they do show how anti-intellectualism is running rampant. Meteorology was not very distinct from Climatology until climate science began to be really physics-based, requiring more than describing and reporting (just as Astrophysics arose from Astronomy -- a really different mind-set). If most TV meteorologists aren't science-trained, it stands to reason they probably DO NOT have a basic idea of physics (neither do most liberal arts college professors). What meteorologists have to offer is important, but I know enough to realize some offer more than their expertise justifies. That's not "dismissing" them, it's using my discretion, based on my own knowledge and experience, to weigh what I'm told. For example, the statistics related to meteorological forecasting do not carry over simplistically into climatological models, so conclusions don't, either. It is not evil per se to have prejudice; it is impossible for me to judge science-based writing while forgetting that I have spent 30+ years as a Ph.D. scientist. Should I ignore that experience? Should I ignore the experience and record of the writer? Call that "prejudice" if you want, to slander facts and people you find inconvenient. Those facts are still facts.
Lorenz? Please don't mischaracterize his work. The major point is that Chaotic processes are deterministic (they have causes, even if we don't have a handle on all of them) but unpredictable (well, we don't -- can't -- know everything). As Climatology uncovers and understands more factors that influence climate, integrated models become more predictive, and the uncertainties smaller -- but they'll never be zero, just as meteorological models can't forecast the exact temperature on my deck at two AM.
And the world is in the hands of people like these, and like Inhofe. Sigh.
Thanks to Mr. Homans.
#7 Posted by Bel Campbell, CJR on Wed 5 Oct 2011 at 01:24 PM