JG: The Daily Kos is an interesting example. They decided over time that they wanted to hire professional writers. They went the opposite way of what The New York Times is trying to do. Did they do it because they needed it? Probably not, they were a pretty successful Web site before and there were a lot of people who would contribute content for free, but they wanted it.
I guess the main thing to realize about the history of newspapers is that The New York Times didn’t become important because it had great content. That may be the way The New York Times remembers it, but it’s not true. The reason The New York Times became important is because they controlled the printing presses and the unions; it was the means of distribution that mattered. Given that success, they obviously moved on to what they thought was important-investigative journalism.
It was the monopoly that created the journalism, not the journalism that created the monopoly.
DD: Given that it would be impossible for such a distribution monopoly to recreate itself on the Web, would you say that it was a mistake for newspapers to get involved in the Web in the first place?
JG: If I had to pick whether the newspapers should have invested heavily in television or the Web, I would have picked television. Just because it plays more to their strengths. And some did. Hearst has a very interesting portfolio in TV. The Times, unfortunately, got in on it too late. Many newspapers—because of their nature—bought into local broadcasts, which turned out to be irrelevant because everybody switched to cable. But, all things being equal, a cable channel turns out to be extraordinarily lucrative.
Creating television content is far more expensive than creating print content. So any place where the terms of engagement require cash favors the big guy over the little guy. The streaming of video content is very expensive. The distribution of content over cable is practically free- every incremental broadcast costs very little. Every stream that YouTube gives us costs them money. So television is, believe it or not, a more efficient way of distributing (visual) content, strictly from a cost perspective. Now from the user’s perspective it’s not. What the user really wants to do is do whatever they want whenever they want. That’s why people love YouTube.
Currently, the vast majority of content that people consume on the Internet is text. That is starting to change. We can’t know whether or not the YouTubes and the Hulus of the world will survive, because their business models are not viable. The Huffington Posts and the Daily Kos’s of the world will survive—at least for a while—because it doesn’t cost that much to distribute what they distribute.
In some way, a model that’s composed of mostly volunteers creating mostly crappy content is going to make some amount of money. Will it make great dollars? Probably not.
DD: What about advertising?
JG: Advertising on the Web is still massively overvalued. In general, the fact that it’s so incredibly inexpensive to create content is a big problem for the advertisers. We’re in a very difficult place with advertising. On the basis of sharing in whatever transactional profit the advertiser makes, there is a very healthy advertising market. The problem is that it’s very difficult to create any streams of revenue.
The main problem is that the banner ad model is just completely unviable. It’s just not valuable enough for the advertisers.
DD: Is there anything out there that could be of significant value to advertisers?
JG: It’s leads. If you have the vertical baby site and you go in and type in stroller and then you can get offers from stroller guys, that you can sell for a meaningful percentage.
DD: So, if selling leads is the way to make money with advertisers, is social media the place to do that?

Great interview.
Jonathan--where do you think the AP fits into this? In my opinion they provide a needed, high quality service, but their owners have to shoulder a lot of costs make things run, like putting people in dangerous places.
#1 Posted by Michael Mallin, CJR on Tue 28 Jul 2009 at 09:15 AM
There are many people more qualified to discuss the future of the AP than me.
My uneducated guess is that many of their members and customers will be under pressure to cut costs as they face increasing competitive pressure. I'd also propose that the value of a ubiquitous wire service is worth less to Internet-only businesses, where you can see the same exact story on hundreds of other sites and because search engines tend to 'punish' pages that feature non-unique content.
I'm not sure there's anything that can really take the place of the AP as it is. But I'm very confident that, after a period of disorienting dislocation, we'll see a ecosystem of individual experts, reporting teams, non-profit media (both local and international), and for-profit companies doing reporting from dangerous places.
Why am I so sure? Because all of the conditions for that ecosystem are already in place:
- plenty of readers of reporting on dangerous places (not as many as we may like, but the collapsing cost of access to the Web increases total global readership enormously)
- a meaningful subset of readers who will pay for this reporting (donations, online events and classes, premium content like books and movies, corporations and investors)
- plenty of passionate talented people who want to tell stories and share opinions about dangerous places
- steadily decreasing tech cost of gathering and producing interesting stories and opinions on dangerous places, and sharing that in interesting ways
What seems unlikely to me is:
- the domination of a small number of large reporter-employer organizations
- that many people will pay for today's newspaper article format
- that adjacency/banner advertising is a sufficient revenue model to support this content creation for all but the largest sites
#2 Posted by Jonathan Glick, CJR on Tue 28 Jul 2009 at 10:08 AM
Good interview. One thing I'd like to ask Mr Glick is this: in the future, will we be reading the news on paper surfaced products, real READING, or will we be screening these digital newspapers on PPS (plastic pixelated screens)? In fact, Jonathan, are you reading this right now or screening it. Your answer will say alot about the future of newspapers and journalism. Find out more at my blog: http://zippy1300.blogspot.com
#3 Posted by Dan BLoom, CJR on Fri 31 Jul 2009 at 09:59 AM
He makes great points about traditional news media. The average person doesn't want to be engrossed with an entire newspaper anymore. We just want what we want. If we are only wanting sports news, why would we buy a newspaper? It's a waste. We'd rather go online to our favorite blog or sports site and get exactly what we want.
footprints in the sand poem poem footprints in the sand
#4 Posted by Jimmy Soldier, CJR on Tue 4 Aug 2009 at 12:37 PM
Fascinating; thank you.
But how will the investigative journalists get paid? Will they have a "donate" button on their own websites?
And the lead time for feature films is months if not years. How can that work in news? Who will play the role of move executive producer in news? And if people aren't paying per story, like movie goers buy a ticket, where will the money come from?
#5 Posted by Dana Sterling, CJR on Mon 10 Aug 2009 at 01:29 PM
In my opinion, the AP has been incredibly behind the curve for better than a decade, still is, and isn't even fully cognizant of today.
It never leveraged its own version of vertical integration to charge Google, Yahoo et al sufficiently steep rates to reuse AP content to force them to paywall it.
I think it's still possible, but it's going to take more effort by AP, and someone with a different vision than its curent leadership. Dean Singleton is clueless.
Now, notes to other commenters above.
Jimmy Soldier, where does your blog get the news about which it blogs?
As for that sports site, if it had brains, it would charge you for it, if it has unique content.
That gets back to the AP.
Dana Sterling, I've raised that issue more than once, and most touters of "newspapers are dead" haven't directly answered it.
Beyond that, is the "new media" always better? Talking Points Memo, for example, referred to anonymous sources six times in a 750-word story earlier this week. It wasn't about national security; rather, it was the tussle over a public option between President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Reid. Just like old media.
http://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com
#6 Posted by SocraticGadfly, CJR on Sat 31 Oct 2009 at 12:40 AM