The Blogosphere has decamped to the Sunshine State (not a bad idea, frankly) and is busy chewing over the meaning of a poll published Sunday by the Miami Herald showing Sen. John Kerry ahead of President Bush in Florida. A second poll, conducted by the American Research Group, showed the two candidates neck-and-neck.

“It will be difficult for John Kerry to win this election without winning Florida,” writes Josh Marshall. “But it will be all but impossible for the president to win without winning there. I think most political professionals would agree that the significant number here isn’t Kerry’s relatively strong 49 percent, but Bush’s pretty poor re-elect number of 43 percent.”

Billmon at Whiskey Bar agrees. “Now this is obviously not good news for Bush. His brother is the governor, he’s spent a ton of time down there, and he still six points behind — and faring far worse among the independents.”

“In any case, it looks like Bush will have [to] divert time and resources into the state — time and resources that [Karl] Rove almost certainly would rather be spending in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan,” Billmon notes.

And the poll numbers have Pandagon speculating on the importance of Kerry choosing a Floridian for the VP’s job.

Speaking of vice presidents, Wonkette! offers us a critique of Dick Cheney’s appearance at Saturday’s annual Gridiron Dinner in Washington, a transcript of which was posted by the Weekly Standard. “Cheney’s routine was as fresh as Senate bean soup,” writes Wonkette!, “and proved that if there is a link from this administration to the neocons, it’s via Henny Youngman.” Okay: Take it away Dick:

Lots of familiar faces here tonight. I always feel a genuine bond whenever I see Senator Clinton. She’s the only person who’s the center of more conspiracy theories than I am …

Dave Broder: “How would you accurately describe your role in this administration? Be honest.

I would say that I am a dark, insidious force pushing Bush toward war and confrontation…

Wonkette’s punchline: “It’s funny because it’s true!”

Susan Q. Stranahan

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Susan Q. Stranahan wrote for CJR.