Campaign Desk noted yesterday how the actual results in Arkansas’s Senate primary complicate the national narratives about an anti-incumbent wave and the rise of political activists. So it’s only fair to note that some national outlets are offering a fuller picture of the outcome there.
For example, the initial story from the Associated Press declared in its lead that Arkansas voters had delivered “a muddled verdict on establishment politicians.” It’s a fair point: after all, Bill Halter, the Democratic challenger who pushed incumbent Blanche Lincoln into a run-off, was an aide in the Clinton administration. Halter may have claimed the “outsider” mantle, but he’s no neophyte. Meanwhile, in the GOP Senate primary—which has been almost entirely neglected by the national media—voters went resoundingly for Rep. John Boozman, a five-term congressman who’s as plain-vanilla D.C. establishment as you can get. No Tea Party insurgency here.
Then, a good, short dispatch by Shaila Dewan in today’s New York Times took note of the key fact about the Democratic contest: at least some of Halter’s supporters turned out to be not who we thought they were:
When word circulated early Tuesday evening that Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas had won the early and absentee vote in Pulaski County, the county that includes Little Rock, her supporters took it as a sign that she would pull off a decisive win in the Democratic primary.
Little Rock and other urban areas were supposed to belong to her rival, Lt. Gov Bill Halter, who was enthusiastically supported by labor unions and national liberal groups. Rural counties, with more conservative voters, were supposed to go to Mrs. Lincoln, a moderate who is the chairwoman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. If Mrs. Lincoln had prevailed in her adversary’s territory, the thinking went, she must have prevailed everywhere.
But the final vote count upended all that careful reasoning…
Mrs. Lincoln won in urban areas like Little Rock and Fayetteville. While some analysts predicted that she was in trouble with black voters, she won in seven of nine Arkansas counties that are more than 40 percent black, perhaps aided by radio advertisements by Mr. Obama that were in heavy rotation on black-oriented stations.
But she lost 20 of 26 largely white, rural counties that stretch diagonally across the state. Those counties, which went strongly for John McCain in 2008, are considered decisive swing counties, Ms. Parry said.
(Ms. Parry would be Janine Parry, a political scientist at the University of Arkansas, who tells the Times that she is “still trying to figure out what happened.”)