TL: Does that mean we shouldn’t use them?
LR: Not necessarily. It is perfectly legitimate to decide that the better health gained from statins is worth the expense. But it does mean that we need to realize that prevention is not going to help reduce the growth of medical spending.
TL: Some people say, “Yes, but if one life is saved, it’s worth it.” Is there another way to think about the individual vs. the population question?
LR: That’s a choice people can make. But they might want to think about it a little differently. If you think about how many years of good health you can buy for a million dollars, studies show that some interventions buy a lot, others very few. For example, flu shots for the elderly buy a lot of years of good health, but annual Pap smears—as opposed to screening less often—buy very few. The comparison suggests that it’s important to make sure that we do the most effective things first, like the flu shots.
TL: But what about the studies that claim there are savings?
LR: Some studies claim savings but they are usually not just looking at medical costs and savings. You will see studies claiming that a preventive intervention saves five dollars for every one dollar spent. What they are doing is valuing every life saved at the future earnings of the person and including those dollars along with medical costs and savings.
TL: Is that valid?
LR: Not if the point at issue is whether prevention will reduce medical spending.
TL: Does self-management of a disease save money? It’s been promoted as a way to cut costs.
LR: Probably not. And I think it’s important to remember that some things that might reduce medical spending do so by increasing costs outside the medical sector, so they are a kind of cost shifting. This is often true of self-management, which can require considerable time, effort, and cost on the part of the patient, and the patient’s family and friends.
TL: Are people being misled about preventive care ?
LR: It’s so easy for people to misunderstand the issue. I hesitate to think that people who say preventive care saves money are deliberately misleading. I think most of them don’t understand it.
TL: What is cost effectiveness analysis?
LR: It projects the costs and health outcomes from different medical choices. It’s a way of comparing costs and health outcomes for different ways of dealing with a disease, such as preventing it before it happens or waiting until it happens and treating it.
TL: Is the term “cost effective” misused ?
LR: The term once meant cost savings, because it was used in situations where you were getting exactly the same result either way and just wanted the cheapest way to get that result. It still carries that connotation, but now we are looking for the most effective way to spend money. If it costs $5000 to save one year of life with smoking cessation programs, and $200,000 to save one year of life with statins, then we say smoking cessation is more cost effective than statins. But neither one saves money.
TL: What is the conflict between making such choices and marketing new products?
LR: If you make a new product, you want to sell it, but it may not be the most effective thing for peoples’ health, or the most important thing to spend money on. The conflict is between the seller and the health policy maker who wants to make sure that people’s health is well served.
TL: Are we spending our prevention dollars inappropriately?

But "medical spending" is a vague term.
How do you get a number for the cost of our private insurance system? It's been reported that the U.S. spends far more on administration of healthcare than do Canada and other indistrialized nations.
Don't we need to isolate "cost of administering and operating private insurance" and pull that out of "medical spending"? When a 1- or 2-physician office has to hire 2-3 staff people just to handle insurance claims, including repeat submissions and appeals (not to mention the insurers own staffing, administration, advertising, etc.), each with multiple plans and levels -- I suspect this cost might be a big part of medical spending. How can we isolate the cost of our for-profit medical insurance system?
#1 Posted by SB, CJR on Tue 16 Jun 2009 at 05:19 PM
Interesting interview but both parties are speaking from a strictly one sided viewpoint. Numbers. Neither works in the medical field and this should be made very clear.
Prevention, like solar panels, will save money, save lives and possibly save the planet, it just wont do it, on an epidemilogical scale in the near future, certainly not in the short attention spans of those studies quoted.
Any cardiologist will tell you that they rush in to the ER or cath lab so much less often for the mid night heart attack today than when they were in training a short 10 years ago, ditto for diabetic coma, status asmaticus, full blown eclampsia, ARDS and many other preventible emergencies. Thes are generic examples and in each case the admission and weeks of hospital in intensive care would have cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Cost savings up front!! These are only a few examples of daily events prevented around the world that dont enter those studies. Where I agree with the professor is that the extant system of prevention is subject to much misuse, over use and mostly inappropriate use. Any criticism of preventive care should include a recognition of why prevention gets so expensive, the greed and malfeasance of the Health In dustry, Big Phrma with DTCA, careless media (in a great hurry to make copy with the latest miracle drug) and unscrupulous doctors. Anything less is indeed throwing out swimming pool when all you need is to remove a few floating leaves and a good vacuuum.
#2 Posted by Dr Wilbur larch, CJR on Tue 16 Jun 2009 at 10:28 PM
To SB: "Medical spending" means the goods and services valued in the National Health Expenditure Accounts, which are produced by the US Department of Health and Human Services. Their estimates have been the definitive information on how much the US spends on medical care for more than 50 years and can be found at http://www.cms.hhs.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/. The administrative costs of our system are a fair point, but not an issue on which I have any special expertise .
Dr. Larch may be thinking of 'business case' analyses when he refers to the "short attention spans" of studies. He will be glad to know that cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), on which I base my conclusions, estimate costs and savings over the lifetimes of a cohort of patients, from the beginning of a preventive intervention until all the patients have died, often a span of 60-80 years or more.
CEAs do count those hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings, but they also count the drip-drip-drip of the millions of doctors' visits, millions of prescriptions, millions of monitoring tests, and whatever else is necessary to prevent disease. Added up, those individually-small costs are greater than than the more impressive savings for some patients.
And the savings don't come up front. They can't. Prevention has to start years before the person would develop heart disease. It would be nice if it could start the day before that expensive admission and prevent it then, but we're not there yet.
#3 Posted by Louise Russell, CJR on Wed 17 Jun 2009 at 12:50 PM
It's "preventive," not "prevenative."
You can take the copy editor out of the newsroom, but he stays a copy editor forever.
#4 Posted by Stephen G. Esrati, CJR on Wed 17 Jun 2009 at 01:48 PM
Societal health care costs are typically calculated as a percentage - 100 x health care costs/GDP. Some preventable illnesses not only incur medical expenses but also contribute to a loss of productivity, and thus presumably reduce GDP to some discernible extent. To what extent would many elements of preventive care that increase costs in absolute terms reduce them in relative terms by amplifying the denominator of the fraction more than the numerator?
#5 Posted by Fred Moolten, CJR on Wed 17 Jun 2009 at 09:06 PM
Although the concept of disease causation ergo prevention is ancient, prevention as an epidemiologic stratergy is not. I am curious as to what proven preventive approach has been studied over a 60 to 80 year period (Prof Russell). To the lay reader all they need to do is to follow the various battles of the last few U.S. Surgeons General nearly all embraced their own favourite prevention of the day. Tobacco, Obesity, HIV, lack of Exercise etc. Keep in mind that prevention is a cornerstone of Public Health and clinical medicine, which, whether cost analysis approves or not, has always worked.
Prevention in medicine as a universal medical concept has to be effective, cheap, widely applicable and acceptable to the public (from an old medical text book), the same with screening (if you talk of secondary prevention). I dont believe that this has been tested and shown to be cost ineffective.
What passes for prevention today and over the last decade or two are myriad add-on, me- too, wanna be, unproven or half proven stratergies which I think have contaminated the data. I will mention some examples, keep in mind the usual suspects (perpetrators) I listed in my previous note.
A colonoscopy showing a large polyp (>1 cm) done in a person over 50 with a family history of colon cancer (first degree family) will prevent colon cancer, hospitalizations, surgery, chemo etc, cost of colonoscopy $200, but in the last 10 years the gastroenterologist found it less of a bother if he got an anesthesiologist to join in and do it under anesthesia, do it on every one once they cross 50, and repeat every few years, cost goes up to a recurring $200 +$600 and a low yield of people with the cancer (this is not medicine, its business).
Other examples are Gov Rick Perry trying to make HPV vaccine mandatory, doing stress tests, Holter monitors, and cardiac MRI's with no indication or the doctor owns the technology, carotid Dopplers in people without a stroke history, testing Vitamin D levels and indiscriminate Bone Scans, CT angiogram of the heart in low risk patients (egged on by a Dr. Gupta specials on CNN).
The same thing for prescribing expensive name brand Statins and blood pressure drugs, this is more drug rep than evidence based. Even if the JNC VII / WHO ISH and NCEP II Guidelines say so, remember the panels are replete with the Industry point men and women.
As the French General said of the Charge of the Light brigade, C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre." ("It is magnificent, but it is not war.") this is the buiness end of medicine, a commodified entrepreneurial abuse, it is not a failure of preventive medicine.
#6 Posted by wilbur larch, CJR on Thu 18 Jun 2009 at 12:23 AM
Louise Russell, thank you for the clarification on "medical spending."
#7 Posted by SB, CJR on Thu 18 Jun 2009 at 11:17 AM
As a followup to my brief comment yesterday, the link that follows is to an analysis that emphasizes the significant savings potentially available from effective preventive strategies aimed at common chronic illnesses - savings exceeding $1 trillion in the costs of lost productivity annually:
http://www.aafp.org/online/en/home/publications/news/news-now/health-of-the-public/20080604milken-report.html
If the link doesn't work, the article is from AAFP and is entitled "Chronic Diseases Spark Dramatic Increases in Treatment Costs While Lowering Productivity, Study Says".
As I suggested yesterday, the typical means of calculating health care costs is not in absolute dollar terms, but as a percentage of GDP. This makes sense, because what is most important is how we allocate society's total capital among competing demands. Lost productivity increases costs calculated by this method by reducing GDP (the denominator), and if prevention is implemented wisely rather than wastefully, the productivity savings could substantially reduce health care costs in the sense of the term that most affects our economy.
#8 Posted by Fred Moolten, CJR on Thu 18 Jun 2009 at 09:48 PM
I've always calculated the cost of our current for-profit system at 22% of current health care costs (the 31% that we use for the insurance bureaucracy LESS the 9% that I think a single payer system would cost). Both numbers include billing staff at hospitals and clinics. We also say that a pure Medicare-for-all system would save $400 billion per year. Could that all be the elimination of the insurance industry?
#9 Posted by Jack Lohman, CJR on Thu 23 Jul 2009 at 07:47 PM
In response to Fred Moolten's point, it is important to remember that effective treatment also boosts productivity. The argument that prevention or treatment can make us more productive is true, but does not solve our cost problem. We do lots more of both now than we did 50 years ago, when we spent about 5 percent of GDP on medical care. Today we spend more than 16 percent.
#10 Posted by Louise Russell, CJR on Fri 4 Sep 2009 at 12:01 PM
If you want to buy a house, you will have to receive the business loans. Moreover, my sister always takes a term loan, which is really useful.
#11 Posted by IMOGENE23Ballard, CJR on Thu 15 Sep 2011 at 10:01 AM