In Politico today, Ken Vogel has a very interesting and worthwhile article about the emerging internal conflicts—both philosophical and personal—within the Tea Party movement. Vogel writes:
The grass-roots activists powering the movement have become increasingly divided on core questions such as whether to focus their efforts on shaping policy debates or elections, work on a local, regional, state or national level or closely align itself with the Republican Party, POLITICO found in interviews with tea party organizers in Washington and across the country.
Disagreements over those issues have spawned personal and institutional rivalries, at least one highly contentious lawsuit and — perhaps most significantly — resulted in the splintering of local, regional and national groups into a patchwork of hundreds of smaller groups that occasionally seem to be working at cross-purposes.
One consequence of this splintering, according to several of the people with whom Vogel speaks, is a decline in enthusiasm. As the movement’s initial burst of activity yielded few concrete results, and no clear authority exists to direct people’s energy and reward their participation, some followers are becoming disaffected. This is a problem that has not escaped notice among the group’s leaders, Vogel writes:
The organizational chaos — combined with a widening apathy at the edges of the movement — has produced a growing consensus among local, state and national tea party leaders that in order for the movement to evolve from the loose conglomeration of fired-up activists who mobilized this summer to register their dissatisfaction with Obama and Congress at town hall protests and marches across the country into a sustainable block with the power to shape the GOP and swing elections, it will require the emergence of a national leader, group or structure.
As the article correctly notes, this period of existential searching isn’t surprising, and it doesn’t mean the tea partiers won’t stick around. This is exactly the sort of crisis you’d expect a political movement to be facing at this point in its development. Successful movements are the ones that find a solution to this challenge and develop lasting institutional structures (which are not necessarily the same thing as large bureaucracies).
While we can’t know yet what will become of the Tea Party movement, Vogel has helpfully outlined its current predicament. He’s also introduced some names that aren’t on the radar of many readers—such as Ned Ryun, president of the nonprofit organizer-training group American Majority—and pointed to potentially significant future events, such as February’s National Tea Party Convention. And he’s done it thanks to some serious reporting—not the showy variety that involves bringing to light something that would have been public in a matter of hours anyway, but the straightforward kind that involves talking to a lot of people and organizing what they have to say through an intelligent frame.
And the best thing about the piece? A certain former governor of Alaska—who is the “darling” of the movement but is, at least so far, not really engaged with efforts to organize it—gets only a parenthetical mention.

I WOULD LIKE TO BE APART OF THE FEB TEA PARTY WHERE WILL THE CONVENTION BE HELD TO TALK ABOUT POLITICAL ISSUES AND WHAT STATE AND WHO WILL BE THERE AS FAR AS SPEAKERS . I PLAN TO BUILD AND SOCIALLITE TEA PARTY ROOM LIKE THE ONE IN NEW YOUR . WAS RAISED GOING TO TEA ROOMS AS A CHILD WITH MY MOTHER ON READING MY FUTURE IS ANOTHER WHAT THEY DO THERE AND HOW YOU LEAVE IS FROM WHAT YOU HEAR THAT DAY . WE ATE EGG SALAD SANDWICHES THERE AND TUNAFISH SANDWICHES IS WHAT A TEA ROOM USED TO SERVE IN BOSTON WHEN I GREW UP AND MOST OF THEM WERE LOCATED IN THE DOWN TOWN AREA . AND ME AND MY MOTHER WENT ON THE REGULAR AND NEVER DID THEY JUST READ YOUR TEA LEAVES WHEN YOU ARE DONE DRINKING IT AND ALSO THEY READ YOUR PALM READING AND THEY ALSO CAN READ YOUR FOOD WHEN YOUR DONE IN WHAT YOUR TASTE IS IN FOOD RICH OR NEED TO IMPROVED IN THE AREA OF LIFE THAT YOU ARE GOING TO WORK IN AND I CLOSE ONE DOWN TO HELP ME WITH MY DISH AND DIRECT TELEVSION AND TO HELP WITH ME ONE DAY TELLING THE WORLD I AM A REAL PRINCESS AND IF THEY DID IT WRONG THEY WOULD SEE THEY WOULD NEVER BE A TEA ROOM AGAIN UNTIL IT WAS OPEN CORRECTLY BY SOMEONE LIKE ME OR A POLITICIAN THAT KNOWS THE HISTORY OF A REAL TEA ROOMS CONVERSTION AND WITH PEOPLE THAT KNOW HOW TO GIVE YOU A REAL READING SOME BACK IN THE DAY USED TO COMPAIR THEM TO SYCIAC ROOMS WHICH STILL EXIST IN BOSTON DUE TO THE SALEM WITCHES COMMUNITES IN SALEM MASSACHUSETTES WHICH IS ALSO A COMMUNITES I HELP TO BUILD, DUE TO I TRY TO TELL PEOPLE THERE ARE GOOD WICHES AND BAD ONES LIKE GLENDA THE GOOD WICHES FROM THE STORY OF THE WIZARD OF OZ AND GLENDA NORMALLY APEARS TO HELP PEOPLE WHEN SOME ONE IS IN NEED OF HELP FROM A BAD WITCH AND ALSO I GUESS SOME MIGHT COMPAIR GLENDA TO A SUPER HERO AND LIKE SOME ENTERTAINERS HOW WAS JANET JACKSON WHEN SOME THOUGHT SHE WAS CAST TO PLAY GLENDA THE GOOD WITCH IN HER ENTERTAINMENT CAREER WHEN ONES GETS CAST IN A GAME WITH OTHER FAMOUS PEOPLE WELL HER ENDED BY MAKEING HERSELF HAPPY BY DATEING AND TALKING ABOUT MARRY JAMINE DUPRE AND SO IT WENT BACK INTO THE HANDS OF A WHITE WOMEN CAST FROM THE WIZARD OF OZ . WHEN ONE DONT LIKE THE GAME . REQUEST TO GET OUT AND YOUR BE FINE. THAT IS FOR FAMOUS AND UN FAMOUS AND POLITICINA THAT WE FIND OURSELFS IN SITUATIONS WE DONT WANT TO BE IN . BEING A FILM MAKER AND SOMEONE WHO WORKS IN FRONT OF THE CAMERA AND BEHIND THE CAMERA I WOULD LIKE TO SAY I WILL BE OPENING UP A PRIVATE TEA ROOM IN THE FUTURE AND AND FOR MEMBERSHIP IT WILL BE ABOUT WHY DO YOU WANT TO BE APART OF THE TEA ROOM PARTY AND WHAT WOULD THE PERSON BRING FROM US TO BENIFIT FROM HAVEING YOU AN MEMEBER OF OUR SOCIETY IN OUR TEA ROOM WHILE RUNING FOR PRESIDENT AS FIRST PRINCESS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT . AND PLAN TO TURN IT INTO A MOVIE WITH RON HOWARD THE PROUDUCER WHO DID FROST NIXON . I LIKE THAT MOVIE WHICH LATER PLAYS CAME OUT AFTER THAT MOVIE IN MY HOME TOWN OF BOSTON .WHICH SOME SAY ME AND NIXON DID LIKE TO DRINK AND WATCH SOME OF THE SAME TELEVSION SHOWS AND HAD THE SAME ATTITUDE WHEN IT CAME TO PEOPLE SNORING WE HATED THEM , AND NIXON WIFE SNORE ALOT. REMEMBER HE RESING I DID THAT ALOT ON JOBS IN THE MEDICAL FIELD AND ALSO IN TEMP JOBS WHEN I DID NOT LIKE HOW THE CAMPANY WAS BEING RUN AND PLAN TO OPEN SOME MORE OF MY OWN COMPANYS AND ALSO MY OWN HOSPITALS AND TEMP AGENCEY DURNING MY CAMPAINGE RUN AND MY INTRODUCTION AS A REAL PRINCESS TO THE WORLD AND I AM ONE TO BRAG I MUST GET BACK INTO THE MEDICAL FIELD SINCE I DONT KNOW WHY OBAMA DID NOT KNOW THE ANSWER TO LOT THE THE AMERICAN PEOPLES HEALTH QUESTIONS OF HIS STAFF THAT HE HAS WORKING WITH HIM . THAT IS ANOTHER REASON I AM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AND NEED TO LET CONSTRUTION COPANYS KNOW I PLAN TO OPEN MY OWN AND ALSO TAKE JONNY CORCORANS TO COURT ON MONEY OWE TO ME IN JOINT VENTURES BESIDE METRO FILMS AND ISLAND AND COUNTRY AND STATE JOINT VENTURES IN BUILDING WITH MY CONTRACTS AND PERMITS AND ALSO IN COLABRATIONS SINCE 1970's AND I PLAN TO DO AN MOVIE ON HOW I BECAME AN PRENCESS WITH THE HELP OF KING GEORGE THE 6TH OF
#1 Posted by Marquita A Guerrant ,ENT NAME IS BABYFROM 1970 TO BABI 2009, CJR on Fri 20 Nov 2009 at 02:07 PM
The above post is a "moby,"
Now you open minded reporters study what that means.
Oh, did you hear the someone committeed an Ellsberg and released some emails showing that AGW was fake?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8370282.stm
If AGW is a lie, what else does the Left want to keep hidden or wrong?
Can we all say: Breitbart/ACORN. And he is looking to CJR. Why?
Who is holding Navasky accountable for using CJR's name in The Nation's fundraising cruise?
Anybody? Anybody? Bueller?
#2 Posted by JSF, CJR on Fri 20 Nov 2009 at 04:58 PM
Hey, where's that story on The NY Times refusal to post the hacked e-mails currently embarrassing the climate-change lobby - this, from a newspaper that posted Sarah Palin's hacked personal e-mails last year, and still celebrates its Pentagon Papers victory way back in 1971, which involved publishing stolen documents?
#3 Posted by Mark Richard, CJR on Tue 24 Nov 2009 at 12:50 PM
Embarrassing is not the same as disproving. You caught some scientists in the shower and laughed at their private parts, but that is not a counter theory to how the earth is going to handle excess carbon in our atmosphere.
I don't know why the right is confusing cheap humiliation with rebuttal, nor do I understand why this is under an article for tea party idiots nor do I understand what a moby is and why it has to be in ALL CAPS ALL THE TIME.
But if you got a alternative way of accounting for how accelerating rates of carbon gas emission will affect climate, do elucidate.
Tell us, what happens in your philosophy, to the earth when carbon dioxide levels double?
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 24 Nov 2009 at 08:34 PM
These emails confirm the fact that the anti-capitalist liberal wacko pseudoscientists who spoonfeed the global warming mythology to the U.N. and MSM have spent years:
1. Manipulating data to "hide" recent cooling and previous warming trends (their words).
2. Deliberately hiding (and possibly destroying) data to keep it from being reviewed.
3. Conspiring to attack and discredit peers who criticized them..
4. Breaking as many FOIA laws as they can.
The first simple fact of the matter is that the Earth has cooled for the last 10 years, contrary to the "model" these kooks concocted. That is just a F A C T.
The second simple fact of the matter is that the Earth has experienced previous periods of significant warming and cooling trends. Again... F A C T.
The third simple fact of the matter is that hiding data by "trick" (again, their word) is scientific fraud.
Why doesn't CJR send out a few of its "watchdogs" to nail down this story? HUH?
#5 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 09:31 AM
People like Fred Singer are not the peers of climate scientists. He's one of the original cigarette scientists and he's been on the pay of anyone who's got an issue they want to deny political action on. Sulfur, ozone, carbon dioxide, he's the one who is up front saying "Scientists? Why should we trust these guys? They lie and I should know. I am one."
It's funny how the discredited papers, bad science, and the stupid - if not intentionally deceptive - statements of the skeptic groups never impinges their credibility with their denialist crowd (these are the guys who argue solar forcing and claim that the rise in carbon dioxide is coming from the ocean. Awful awful science) but it takes a bad phrase in someone's private communique over a 10 year history to discredit the findings of the entire Climate Science field.
Again, if you are going to discredit the findings of Climate Science, you have to discredit the SCIENCE.
You can jibber jab about the scientists all you want but it doesn't matter because the character of the scientist does not disprove the validity of his work.
You can be the nicest scientist in the world and still publish rubbish work. You can be an adulterer and a serial bunny rapist and still publish high quality work.
You people are attacking scientists instead of attacking their work.
The first simple fact of the matter is that the Earth has cooled for the last 10 years, contrary to the "model" these kooks concocted. That is just a F A C T.
Nope. 1998 was not an average year. We had predicable rises in temperature until 1998 and then we got hit with El Nino. It's like if you have a head cold and an eye infection, for a couple of days you're really sick and then the eye infection clears up. That doesn't mean your head cold is gone.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/
For a while we had AGW forcing and a severe natural forcing likely made worse by AGW. Since then, we've had hotter years than any we've recorded with the exception of the freak El Nino year. The temperature has been fluctuating on an upwards scale.
And with all that reflective arctic sea ice melting, leaving dark ocean water beneath, that trend is going to continue upward.
The second simple fact of the matter is that the Earth has experienced previous periods of significant warming and cooling trends. Again... F A C T.
That "fact" is not relevant to this period. Other warming and cooling periods had their reasons, we have ours. Ours is the gas dumping we do.
The third simple fact of the matter is that hiding data by "trick" (again, their word) is scientific fraud.
Again, if we cared about scientific fraud then the Fred Singer and his skeptics would have been laughed out of the building a long time ago.
One paper mentions a trick.Fraud in one paper does not disprove the voluminous work of many.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 01:27 PM
Since we're making this the AGW email thread, instead of this one
http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/trains_planes_and_carbon_offse.php
I will repeat my challenge here.
A theory needs to be proved, not the other way around.
Wrong. Things have to be accounted for, not imagined they don't exist.
Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has risen 60 ppmv in the last 50 years and the oceans have become more acidic, indicating a rise in carbon dioxide in solution.
If you do not believe that humans are not responsible, the A part in the AGW you deny, then you have to account where it is coming from. When someone says "Human activity is causing a rise in Carbon Doxide" you can't give the monty python argument guy answer "No, it isn't." and pretend that's scientific. You have to account for the source.
But let's say you don't. Carbon dioxide levels are just floating in the air in increasing amounts, no one knows why, but it's there. Science says that carbon dioxide absorbs radiation that would normally reflect back into space and transforms it into heat, which is why our planet is warm enough to sustain life. If you deny that increased Carbon Dioxide doesn't cause increased heat, the GW in the AGW you deny, you have to explain how that happens. You have to account for effect.
"No it isn't" is not a rebuttal of the theory of Carbon Dioxide induced global warming nor is it a rebuttal of our emissions being the culprit in the sudden rise. You have to account for the source and the effects. That there is a rise is measured numbers and they don't lie.
So, where is your science, punks?
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 01:40 PM
Thimbles has his panties all up in a bunch:
Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has risen 60 ppmv in the last 50 years and the oceans have become more acidic, indicating a rise in carbon dioxide in solution.
So what?
If you do not believe that humans are not responsible, the A part in the AGW you deny, then you have to account where it is coming from.
So humans make CO2... So what?...
When someone says "Human activity is causing a rise in Carbon Doxide" you can't give the monty python argument guy answer "No, it isn't." and pretend that's scientific. You have to account for the source.
Again... So WHAT?.. So humans burn stuff... So WHAT?...
But let's say you don't. Carbon dioxide levels are just floating in the air in increasing amounts, no one knows why, but it's there. Science says that carbon dioxide absorbs radiation that would normally reflect back into space and transforms it into heat, which is why our planet is warm enough to sustain life.
Right... "Science says so..." The relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature is poorly understood. Certainly the models promulgated by the anticapitalist frauds (which call for continuously increasing temperatures) are absurd in the face of the cooling trend the Earth has seen for the last ten years.
Indeed the average global temperatures decreased from 1940 to 1980 despite increased carbon dioxide concentrations.
The biggest part of the problem is that natural annual cyclical fluctuation in CO2 concentrations is much greater than the average annual increase in the records we have. Much of the increase is attributed to a comparison of modern CO2 samples to CO2 samples taken from ice cores in polar areas of little or no terrestrial or aquatic plant growth.
Furthermore, even if CO2 levels have increased 35% since the 1820's... You are talking about an increase from a miniscule concentration to another miniscule concentration. There has never been a global warming model promulgated with any predictive value because the process is not understood.
Whatever the reason... The truth is that the "model" that the liberal pseudoscientists have foisted upon the UN and the MSM is completely at odds with the data. This is a little slice of reality that won't go anywhere just because it offends liberal sensitivities.
If you deny that increased Carbon Dioxide doesn't cause increased heat, the GW in the AGW you deny, you have to explain how that happens. You have to account for effect.
No we don't.. The earth is C O O L I N G and has done so for the least ten years. If you subscribe to the "AGW" religion, you need to explain to the nonbelievers why global average temperatures are falling as average atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase.
"No it isn't" is not a rebuttal of the theory of Carbon Dioxide induced global warming nor is it a rebuttal of our emissions being the culprit in the sudden rise. You have to account for the source and the effects. That there is a rise is measured numbers and they don't lie.
Numbers don't lie. But lying scientists sure can assemble numbers into false information. This is precisely what has happened here.
Dude.. You just need to absorb the reality.... Try repeating it over and over in your head until it sticks.. Here it is again:
These emails confirm the fact that the anti-capitalist liberal wacko pseudoscientists who spoonfeed the global warming mythology to the U.N. and MSM have spent years:
1. Manipulating data to "hide" recent cooling and previous warming trends (their words).
2. Deliberately hiding (and possibly destroying) data to keep it from being reviewed.
3. Conspiring to attack and discredit peers who criticized them..
4. Breaking as many FOIA laws as they can.
#8 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 02:14 PM
Indeed the average global temperatures decreased from 1940 to 1980 despite increased carbon dioxide concentrations.
That was because of sulfur aerosols from coal which we scrubbed in the 1980's. Sulfur dioxide has the effect of blocking radiation, which is why large volcanic eruptions can lower temperature.
Sulfur emissions also have the effect of causing acid rain and drought in Africa, so it's good we stopped emitting them, but they were responsible for the mid century cooling period.
And as I said before, the earth has not been cooling since 1998. It's been cooling relative to 1998.
Temperatures have stabilized for the last ten years at ultra high levels and that could be indicative of a threshold point. Imagine you have a pot boiler. in the top you have ice, in the bottom water. The bottom heats up quick and at a predicate rate until it hits a threashold where the heat starts to melt the ice in the top. The cold water from the top arrests the rise in the bottom, but the top is rising quickly and melting very quickly. When the ice is gone, the temperature rate it was holding back will resume with a vengeance and, meanwhile, the bottom has started to overflow.
Sure enough, the areas with the greatest temperature increases are in the Arctic zones and though you claim the temperature is not increasing, the process of heating can be physically observed as the ice sheets melt.
And that's a big f'in problem.
Now I'll await your, "So what." "No it isn't" answers.
And the lying has come from the skeptics side who have desperately tried to prevent the truth from being discussed and have used ANY opportunity they can find to discredit and humiliate legitimate climate scientists.
A few years back the Anti-AGW movement went crazy over this legitimate study
http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/roe/Publications/RoeBakerSOM_Science_07.pdf
because it had the words "Unpredictable" and "climate" which they took to mean "HA! Since climate is unpredictable, why even bither studying it? Gobal Warming isn't real! HAAHAH!"
When you have vulture scientists watching your every move, you tend to get pissed at them in private and attempt to avoid giving them opportunities to dishonestly attack you in public.
Or quote your out of context to support their position:
http://ocean.mit.edu/~cwunsch/papersonline/responseto_channel4.htm
In other words, if the cigarette scientists weren't such assholes (who fudge things constantly to confuse he overwhelming data) legitimate scientists could afford to be more candid in public as they are in their private correspondence.
As it is, every data point and every word is being scrutinized for weaknesses and people want to protect themselves from dishonest attacks.
What the emails show is that scientists do this a minority of the time.
What the emails show is that the whole discipline is a bunch of frauds. Your side has pretty much a monopoly on those guys.
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 10:15 PM
Thimbles plays fast and loose with the facts:
That (the cooling of the Earth from 1940 to 1980) was because of sulfur aerosols from coal which we scrubbed in the 1980's. Sulfur dioxide has the effect of blocking radiation, which is why large volcanic eruptions can lower temperature.
padikiller scofffs: Says who?
What does SO2 have to do with anything? What about the hundred years before 1940 when SO2 was being belched left and right?
Where is your "scientific"model that accounts for the non-existent "scrubbing" of SO2 that you claim? HUH?
Thimbles prattles on: Sulfur emissions also have the effect of causing acid rain and drought in Africa, so it's good we stopped emitting them, but they were responsible for the mid century cooling period.
padikiller asks: Again... Says WHO?
Thimbles continues: And as I said before, the earth has not been cooling since 1998. It's been cooling relative to 1998.
padikiller rebuts: Now THERE is a "distinction without a difference"!... Well, you need to read the emails from the climate Schmucks in England. These guys are well aware of the fact that their "model" does not account for the cooling data. And they buried the data. This is just the reality here.
Dude... One more time....
You need to address the simple reality here.
1. The anticapitalist pseudoscientists who puffed up the U.N. and the MSM used a "trick" (their word) to "hide" (also their word) the data that conflicted with reality in order to prop uo the "model" they concocted that they KNEW didn't account for the real data. This little slice of reality is simple matter of record now. You can either accept it or ignore it. But either way, it isn't going to evaporate.
2. These same pseudoscientists are on record conspiring to destroy data, evade scrutiny and to attack critics. This behavior is scientific fraud. PERIOD. Again, you can either acknowledge the reality, or drink the liberal Kool-Aid. Your choice. The reality isn't going anywhere.
3. Most importantly, from a scientific perspective.... THERE IS NO ACCURATE MODEL OF GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION. You can't link to one. You can't refer to one. You can't provide one. Such a model simply does not exist. And yet, the liberal kooks demand policy decisions nonetheless.
The charlatans who have dumped this global warming Chicken Little crapola on the world have done what all pseudoscientists do... They have created an agenda-driven "model" and then have set about to squeeze the data into it.
This is scientiific crime of the first order. Models follow data.... Not the other way around. If the data conflicts with the model, then it's time to ditch the model. This is science.
These frauds are on record doing the opposite. PERIOD.
#10 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 11:16 PM
Look, if you don't know the basics of SO2 emissions, you haven't studied the science enough to critique it,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_Rain_Program
"So what?" Is not an arguement.
Cooling is not what the earth has been doing since 1998. It has stabilized at a very high temperature which the climate scientists don't want to talk about until they are sure of the mechanism. These are cautious people.
You can find an isolated example of bad behavior in every discipline and you can take the words of scientists out of context to claim something they don't, like the earth has been cooling since 1998.
There are natural fluctuations that take place over a ten year period, but when the base of one ten year period equals the plateau of the previous, that doesn't mean the earth is cooling.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Again, if your only answer to any question is "So what?" you are not going to learn anything about the science. Your conclusions are based on your politics and that is a dangerous way to think.
That's how Russia thought and look how that turned out.
You can either believe A)the multitude records of public research which corroborate each other despite 10 years of skeptical scrutiny or B)the "Global Conspiracy" theories derived from a couple of emails and the spitballs of cigarette scientists.
If you believe B) there's an Alex Jones website I think you'll like.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhqUk28OwHs
#11 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 25 Nov 2009 at 11:58 PM
Look, if you don't know the basics of SO2 emissions, you haven't studied the science enough to critique it,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_Rain_Program
"So what?" Is not an arguement.
Cooling is not what the earth has been doing since 1998. It has stabilized at a very high temperature which the climate scientists don't want to talk about until they are sure of the mechanism. These are cautious people.
You can find an isolated example of bad behavior in every discipline and you can take the words of scientists out of context to claim something they don't, like the earth has been cooling since 1998.
There are natural fluctuations that take place over a ten year period, but when the base of one ten year period equals the plateau of the previous, that doesn't mean the earth is cooling.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Again, if your only answer to any question is "So what?" you are not going to learn anything about the science. Your conclusions are based on your politics and that is a dangerous way to think.
That's how Russia thought and look how that turned out.
You can either believe A)the multitude records of public research which corroborate each other despite 10 years of skeptical scrutiny or B)the "Global Conspiracy" theories derived from a couple of emails and the spitballs of cigarette scientists.
#12 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 12:05 AM
If you believe B) there's an Alex Jones website I think you'll like.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhqUk28OwHs
#13 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 12:06 AM
Thimbles dodges and weaves, but the fact of the matter is that the AGW kooks simply cannot produce a predictive climate model. PERIOD. Notice how he avoids dealing with this inconvenient truth?
The best he can do is some creative apologizing, by concluding that some "cautious", though remarkably unspecified, "climate scientists" are merely too temporarily hindered by ignorance to address thethe fact that their AGW "model" is broken.
Liberals honestly demand policy decisions founded upon a nonexistent model. This is just silly. Why not base our economy on astrology?
These nuts have crafted a pseudoscientific religion and these emails prove it.
#14 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 09:52 AM
Yeah, we can't produce an exactly predictive climate model. No why? See that paper I quoted. We don't know where the tipping points are and where every natural process that produces a feedback is.
We're not dealing with a test tube, it's the whole earth, comprised of a variety of vastly different regions, all with their own sorts of butterfly wings that we can't always observe, flapping.and affecting the results a little.
Imagine we were planing the first rocket to the moon. We do all the calculations covering millions of kilometers accounting for the gravity of three giant bodies: the sun, the earth, and the moon. We pinpoint the spot we are going to land and we launch the rocket. Unfortunately we forgot to account for the pull of Mars over that million mile journey and the astronaught is an analog controller and one of the pilots had a big meal the night before the journey and voice erupts, "OMG! We missed the predicted target by a meter! OMG Astro science is a dead pseudoreligion! You guys in your socialist space program suck ass! You can't make a predictive model for a moon trajectory!"
We hit the fucking moon, dumb ass.
The physical signs observed as far as glacial and ice shelf decay are exceeding predictions. 1998 to 2008 is the hottest decade we've recorded. Predicting climate change is vastly more complicated than sending men to the moon because of the countless variables involved, but because some of the variables are dominant, we have predicted a a trajectory for global climate and, mainly because of political pressures and scientific trepidation towards pressing the panic button, the actual trajectory has exceeded the predicted model.
But you're a skeptic, and skeptics can just say "so what?"
Well, I'm skeptical of skeptic science.
I say the skeptics have not produced an predictive model of carbon dioxide origination. Hell, they haven't produced an alternate model.
I say the skeptics haven't produced a predictive model of the effects of rising carbon dioxide levels. They have always understated the effects and claim it will be a boon to most people since everybody likes warmer winters.
I think the skeptics are pseudoscientists and hacks who want to deny the basic chemical properties of green house gases and pretend that their faith in free markets and doing nothing will prevent catastrophe. That is their model. "If we do nothing, nothing will happen because nothing is happening.
We don't believe in stuff, except for the belief in not believing in stuff. So what?"
Well, I don't know about you, but this denying basic chemical properties or basic scientific data or basic year to year experiences of agricultural changes or basic records of our emissions and the rise of concentrations of chemicals which happen to be in those emissions...
That sounds to me like a blind faith. That sounds very much like a pseudoscientific religion - minus the science.
Where's your predictive models, punk.
#15 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 12:26 PM
"Dumb ass"? "Punk"?
Thimbles is doing what liberals inevitably do when they hit the Wall of Triuth
... Namely, devolve onto a juvenile name-calling hissy fit.
Of course, his comparison of a moon shot to a global climate model is both false and disingenuous. The mechanics of motion and gravitation have been inderstod to a high degree of precision for more than 300 years.
The fact remains that there is no predictive global climate model. PERIOD. All we have are inaccurate, simplified models that have been deliberately crafted to hide contradictory data. This is fraud.
Even worse, the current models can't even incorporate past climatic events. It turns out that these emails document the charlatans' efforts to ignore the Medieval warming episode.
These poorly developed, inaccurate models do not provide a rational basis for any particular policy.
#16 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 04:04 PM
Buddy, you use Liberal as an insult. You accuse me of being loose with the facts. You don't want names? Don't be an asshole.
Conduct yourself in a less pretentious and more open minded manner and I will do likewise.
PS. The mechanics of motion and gravitation have been inderstod to a high degree of precision for more than 300 years. So have many of the principles of climate dynamics, but there are a lot more variables that need to be accounted for to get 100% entirely predictive, for instance non-uniform topography, that make climate science very difficult to model.
But we don't consider the standard model of sub atomic particles bunk because we haven't confirmed the higgs. The data from other research and experiments corroborate with the model so no, we search for the higgs.
But you ain't searching bud. You don't have a model, you don't have data, you don't even know the effect of sulfur dioxide emissions and how cap and trade eliminated them in the 1980's. You just have this pseudoreligion that "free market good" "carbon mean regulation" "regulation bad" "padkiller smash". You can't point at the research and argue it, you got to point at a couple of private cherry picked emails from a couple of climate scientists and argue the entire discipline does things the skeptic community says they do without basis.
Parrots don't have original thoughts you see. They don't understand sulfur's effect on the atmosphere either. They say "So what!?" a lot if you accidentally teach them.
Padkiller want a cracker?
#17 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 09:42 PM
Thimbles wrote: "Buddy, you use Liberal as an insult."
padikiller responds: I feel your pain. I would be insulted too, by such an aspersion. Should I refer to you then as a conservative?
Thimbles continues: "The mechanics of motion and gravitation have been inderstod to a high degree of precision for more than 300 years. So have many of the principles of climate dynamics"
padikiller reproaches: This is simply not the case. Long term climate dynamics are not understood to any reasonable degree of certainty. There is currently no real understanding of global heating or cooling trends, past, present or future. Nobody can explain why the Medieval Warming Period was followed by the Little Ice Age. Nobody can provide the "ideal" atmospheric concentration of CO2 necessary to have any particular effect on the average global temperatures. No current mathematical models exist to forecast climate conditions with any reasonable degree of certainty on even an annual basis.
Thimbles rambles on: "we don't consider the standard model of sub atomic particles bunk because we haven't confirmed the higgs. The data from other research and experiments corroborate with the model so no, we search for the higgs."
padikiller rebukes: The Higgs boson is a theoretical mathematical construct. It's existence is specifically P R E D I C T E D by a very precise set of mathematical equations (the "Standard Model") that has proven to be a very good approximation of the real subatomic world.
However, even so, there is a very real chance that the Standard Model is inaccurate. There very well could be heavy Super Symmetric particles that exist outside of the model. This is why we are testing. This is science. REAL science. We are testing the PREDICTIONS of our theory by ASSUMING THAT THEY ARE FALSE.
What the anticapitalist AGW loons are doing is the reverse. They are cherry-picking data and then crafting "models" to fit their agendas. This type of pseudoscientific chicanery works on a limited data set, but falls apart over time when conflicting data drifts away from the curves on their charts. The solution these frauds devised? Use "tricks" to "hide" the non-conforming data, burn the books to avoid scrutiny, and attack anyone who dared to criticize them. It's all there, in black and white, in their own words. Read it and weep.
As for your "sulfur dodge" - nice try, but no cigar. While SO2, is indeed nasty stuff (giving rise to acid rain), it has no apparent effect on global temperatures. The reductions in SO2 emissions in the US have been negated by the Chinese. Indeed, China now produces as much SO2 as the US did before reduction programs were implemented.
Finally, I will toll the Reality Bell once more. There simply is NO ACCURATE LONG-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL. PERIOD. Forming national policy on the basis of the kooky crap cooked up by the AGW loons is akin to using a psychic or a phrenologist. It is just silly and dangerous.
#18 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 10:17 PM
padikiller responds: I feel your pain. I would be insulted too, by such an aspersion. Should I refer to you then as a conservative?
Hey I don't care. I don't whine about it when I get called a name. But if you are going to object when one's labeling you, you shouldn't go about labeling others. You look like a wuss when you do.
padikiller reproaches: This is simply not the case. Long term climate dynamics are not understood to any reasonable degree of certainty. There is currently no real understanding of global heating or cooling trends, past, present or future. Nobody can explain why the Medieval Warming Period was followed by the Little Ice Age. Nobody can provide the "ideal" atmospheric concentration of CO2 necessary to have any particular effect on the average global temperatures. No current mathematical models exist to forecast climate conditions with any reasonable degree of certainty on even an annual basis.
Not true, but it's a true reflection of your beliefs, ""If we do nothing, nothing will happen because nothing is happening. We don't believe in stuff, except for the belief in not believing in stuff. So what?"
Do you have better models? You state that you don't believe in the current research of climate science indicating rises in Green House Gases which are causing accompanying rises in temperature. What do you believe? Why? Do you believe we have a climate? Show your research.
Dumb ass.
#19 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 26 Nov 2009 at 11:56 PM
In the meantime, as I said before the trajectory is correct, but the scientists undershot:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/copenhagen/
#20 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 12:03 AM
LOL...
Do I have a "better model" than the crazy, cooked up AGW nonsense?
Sure I do. I call it a ouija board.
But let's put the AGW model to the test, shall we? If this AGW "model" is reliable enough to form the basis for international trade and industrial policy redirection, then it should be able to answer the following questions:
1. What is the "ideal" average global temperature?
2. What atmospheric concentration of CO2 will allow the Earth to maintain this ideal temperature?
3. Why was the Earth warmer during the Medieval period than it was during the Little Ice Age that came later?
4. Why hasn't the Earth warmed during the last 10 years when reported CO2 concentrations have been increasing?
5. How did the polar bears manage to survive the Medieval Warming Period without UN intervention?
But seriously.... THERE ARE NO ACCURATE LONG TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS. PERIOD!
No scientist (nor any pseudoscientist) can predict with any degree of certainty whether the global average temperature will go up or down next year. Or in the next two years. Or in the next hundred. Nobody knows how much rain will fall in any particular city, on any particular state, on any particular continent, or in any particular hemisphere.
Sure, CO2 has a greenhouse effect (as do other substances), but there are a zillion other factors at play and the greenhouse effect is only one of them. Furthermore, CO2 is plant food. It gets eaten. The sky is not falling.
Should we study the climate? Sure. Maybe one day we'll end up with a useful scientific model that actually works. Should we make policy on the basis of anticapitalist pseudoscientific horseshit? NO.
#21 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 12:27 AM
I asked "What do you believe?" and you gave me "a ouija board."
Good, if a Ouija board is the model you use, you are neither informed nor informative and can be dismissed as a loon. You are a ouijite which is, according to the liberal loon dictionary I keep in my liberal loon pocket, synonym for moron or an complete fool.
You are dismissed now. Good day.
#22 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 12:58 AM
Well, golly gee....
Look what turned up in the news this morning!...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8381317.stm
Most climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the Earth will respond in an El Nino-like way to global warming.
But a few of the models do recreate this dynamic "La Nina effect", and suggest that that when you heat the Earth's surface, the climate system tries to offset and cool.
"If the response of the Earth in the past is analogous to the temperature increase caused by greenhouse gases... it could lend credence to this counterintuitive notion of a La Nina response to global warming," said Professor Mann.
But, he added, that the Earth's response to greenhouse-gas-induced global warming might be more complex than "natural" warming.
"What this gives us is an independent reality check," said Professor Mann.
"There is still a fair amount of divergence among the various models - in terms of how El Nino changes in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
So... Greenhouse gases could bring a cooling effect, a warming effect or do nothing.... Depending on feedback responses.
We don't know, because the the models aren't accurate enough... Which is exactly what I've been trying to tell this dingbat.
#23 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 09:03 AM
See, now this is what I'm talking about. A perfectly fine article which, if read by a perfectly rational mind, leads to perfectly rational conclusions.
But no, not the skeptic who lacks a rational mind. "I'll take random words out of the article, type a bunch of crap that was fed to me by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (which I'll pass off as my own insights) and SQUAWK SQUAWK! I'l have disproved climate science! AH HA! SQUAWK! MORE METHANE FOR ME!"
But yeah, it's kind of funny that a second ago, in your opinion, Michael Mann was dirt and garbage for being involved in your little Climategate scandal and climate research in general is sucky in general. But now you're using it and him as part of your argument.
Anyways, he's talking about El Nino events and how prolonged El Nino La Nina events caused periods of strange temperatures such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The article says
"He explained that the data allowed the team to estimate how natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Sun's output, altered the climate in the past.
"We then put these estimates into the climate models," he told BBC News.
The models revealed that these natural factors altered the Earth's surface temperature, which kick-started feedback mechanisms - El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). "
So what he's saying is that humans didn't drive climate change in the past, things like solar variability did.
That's been confirmed:
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=115207
pt 2 in a bit
#24 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 01:55 PM
Thimbles tells half the story: So what he's saying is that humans didn't drive climate change in the past, things like solar variability did.
That's been confirmed:
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=115207
pt 2 in a bit
padikiller fills in the rest: Er... Hello!...
The OTHER thing he is saying (in plain unambiguous English) is that the current models are in utter disagreement about the effect of greenhouse gas upon the global climate. An accurate predction is impossible, according to the article, because the feedback mechanisms are poorly understood.
"There is still a fair amount of divergence among the various models - in terms of how El Nino changes in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations."
What part of this statement do you fail to comprehend? Huh?
This is exactly the point I have been trying to squeeze between your ears in this thread. Again, try reading it until your lips stop moving, and then maybe it will stick.
Dude, you can dance around the reality all you want. It isn't going anywhere. You might as well man up and deal with it.
Thank goodness at least a sliver of the truth is finally coming out regarding this AGW fraud.
#25 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 02:22 PM
What he's saying is that we can use our records of the past naturally driven anomalies to make predictions about the ones produced by our Carbon Dioxide, since the mechanisms of change are similar.
And he says a couple of the models show a La Nina effect response to carbon forcing, but you have to read the actual article to see what the assumed variables for those models are:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5957/1256
Podcast
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/326/5957/1256/DC2
In the podcast he mentions that the Medieval Warming period had intense solar activity and that there was a feedback effect in the ocean that produced a La Nina. He's probably making similar MWP assumptions for variables in the models that produced la Nina.
But the majority of models predict a El Nino effect. This effect is often caused by abnormal warming usually during the solar maximum. Usually La Nina's occur during the solar minimum and it was the prolonged solar minimum Maunder Minimum, that was likely the cause of the little ice age.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
However, since 2000ish, we've been in a solar minimum. Think about that. The hottest decade on record was taking place during a time when we should have been colder.
And instead, we've been getting El Nino's more frequently.
Carbon Dioxide is becoming the dominant climate driver on our earth now. Whether that drives the temperatures up or produces a feedback that drives temperatures down, wait for it... SO WHAT?!
The implication of having carbon as the dominant variable is climate change. It's climate instability which leads to unpredictability.
And the implication of climate unpredictability is people don't know what or when to plant.
Global Warming is disruptive and disruptive by definition is unpredictable, which is why we should be cutting emissions yesterday because it becomes more difficult to live as unpredictable to live in.
Butt face.
#26 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 02:28 PM
What he's saying is that we can use our records of the past naturally driven anomalies to make predictions about the ones produced by our Carbon Dioxide, since the mechanisms of change are similar.
And he says a couple of the models show a La Nina effect response to carbon forcing, but you have to read the actual article to see what the assumed variables for those models are:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5957/1256
Podcast
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/326/5957/1256/DC2
In the podcast he mentions that the Medieval Warming period had intense solar activity and that there was a feedback effect in the ocean that produced a La Nina. He's probably making similar MWP assumptions for variables in the models that produced la Nina.
But the majority of models predict a El Nino effect. This effect is often caused by abnormal warming usually during the solar maximum. Usually La Nina's occur during the solar minimum and it was the prolonged solar minimum Maunder Minimum, that was likely the cause of the little ice age.
However, since 2000ish, we've been in a solar minimum. Think about that. The hottest decade on record was taking place during a time when we should have been colder.
And instead, we've been getting El Nino's more frequently.
Carbon Dioxide is becoming the dominant climate driver on our earth now. Whether that drives the temperatures up or produces a feedback that drives temperatures down, wait for it... SO WHAT?!
The implication of having carbon as the dominant variable is climate change. It's climate instability which leads to unpredictability.
And the implication of climate unpredictability is people don't know what or when to plant.
Global Warming is disruptive and disruptive by definition is unpredictable, which is why we should be cutting emissions yesterday because it becomes more difficult to live as unpredictable to live in.
Butt face.
#27 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 02:32 PM
sentence should have read: "which is why we should be cutting emissions yesterday because it becomes more difficult to live as the world becomes more unpredictable to live in.
Stupid, post blocking, 2 links nazi, software.
#28 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 02:35 PM
Thimbles is all over the road: "Whether that drives the temperatures up or produces a feedback that drives temperatures down, wait for it... SO WHAT?!"
padikiller responds: LOL!
So what difference does it make whether the temperature goes up or down?
After fifty zillion idiotic posts claiming that AGW is real and provable, THIS is you latest dodge? You now claim that atmospheric CO2 creates UNPREDICTABILITY in climate modeling?
What happened to your AGW "models"? What happened to "science" that you claimed proved unequivocally that CO2 is causing the global temperature to increase? Huh?
You are falling apart at the logical seams and revealing your anticapitalist roots. So if temps go up, CO2 is bad. If temps go down, CO2 is bad. CO2 is just bad, bad, bad...
Tell us then, oh pundit of pundits.... What exactly is the "right" concentration of atmospheric CO2? HUH? I mean, if we take it down to zero, all plant life on the planet dies. So where do we set the global CO2 level?
What a damned hoot! This whole crock of crap is nothing but a anticapitalist orgy of stupidity.
#29 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 03:25 PM
Yea it doesn't matter whether temperatures go up or down because either cause disruption, which is what us science people are pissy about.
And in the la nina feedback effect, which you are suddenly hanging your hat when it half confirms your bias - like every good skeptic does, would only be temporary in the face of a continuous green house effect.. The feedback is a response to excess thermal energy (some how, in some of Mann's models, a la Nina effect produces a heat sink). There is a threshold to how much thermal energy this feedback effect can absorb until it breaks.
The decision is do we take a disruption now; and advance our science and industry based on new, efficient, non-catastrophic technologies that we have the potential to do and have to do anyways since our fossil fuel energy reserves do have their limits; or do we procrastinate and wait for nature to make the disruption for us by changing the fundamentals of the earth upon which we live. In one scenario we get a sustainable society powered by free energy which is limited only by the longevity of our yellow sun.
In the other scenario, we have the dessicated corpse of our oil society, tanks empty as once plentiful fuel has been used up, laying in the deserts of its own making.
But at least it's not communism.
This is why the Anti-AGW debate is so stupid. They aren't fighting unnecessary change, they're fighting changes we absolutely require anyways, eventually. It's a big reality avoidance excercise in which the reality is the stability life depends on is breaking and we always seem to find better things to do than attempt to stop it.
And part of the reason is because silly people want to believe nothing is happening unless it involves Sarah Palin and ACORN.
The sky is not falling, it's heating, and we are responsible. Even your Ouija board said so.
#30 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 10:15 PM
Thimlbes wrote: "Yea it doesn't matter whether temperatures go up or down because either cause disruption, which is what us science people are pissy about."
padikiller inquires: The "science people" get pissy over "disruption"?
How exactly does "disruption" engender increased urine production among the "science people"? Huh? This "disruptive" process needs a little peer review, in my estimation.
So we have only two choices? Either forsake all for the power of the "yellow sun" or face the future of dealing with the "dessicated corpse" of all human endeavor in buring fossil fuels? Egads!.... The Horror!...
Without intending to seem unalarmist, we seem to have moved the goalposts once again.
When we first began this debate, you insisted that the AGW models were accurate and that "science" had "proven" that global warming was the inevitable outcome of increased CO2 levels.
Later you changed your tune and acknowledged (finally) the reality, namely that the climate models are too unrefined to account for the effect of greenhouse gases upon the average global temperature. Nonetheless, you insisted that CO2 emissions needed to be cut, even though you admitted that you have not the slightest idea (to within any degree of scientific precision) of the effect of greenhouse gasses on the climate.
Now we seem to moved on to a Whole Earth-inspired "stability" argument, that presupposes that "life" cannot endure without anthropogenically imposed "stability".
Well, here's some news... There never has been any "stability"! Why don't you do us all a favor? Read up on your Darwin and let the reality settle in before you reply.
Dude, I'll ask you again (for the bazillionth time).....
If "anthropogenic" CO2 is "bad" as you claim it is.... Why don't you give us the ideal atmospheric CO2 concentration (in parts per million of volume)? HUH?
How about it, Sport?
What's the ideal concentration? What percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere will do right by the planet?
If you can't answer this question (and you can't) you need to ask yourself why you keep drinking the AGW Kool-Aid...
#31 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 27 Nov 2009 at 11:36 PM
How exactly does "disruption" engender increased urine production among the "science people"? Huh? This "disruptive" process needs a little peer review, in my estimation.
When land locked ice melts and rivers flood because the snow packs don't hold their water like they used to, scientists wet their pants.
When we first began this debate, you insisted that the AGW models were accurate and that "science" had "proven" that global warming was the inevitable outcome of increased CO2 levels.
Yes, the models had predicted temperature changes and physical changes that manifested themselves in the years to come, many of the actualities realized in the upper bounds scenarios of the predictions. The scientists were too cautious.
Without intending to seem unalarmist, we seem to have moved the goalposts once again.When we first began this debate, you insisted that the AGW models were accurate and that "science" had "proven" that global warming was the inevitable outcome of increased CO2 levels.
Yes an increase of thermal energy retained is the result of increased levels of GHG. That is science. The effects of this increased thermal energy can manifest itself as ice melting, temperatures increasing, invasive species like pine beetles moving into formally too cool regions, permafrost melting, sea levels rising, etc. Furthermore, the effects of rising GHG concentrations are new equilibrium of those gases in solution in the ocean which is a large carbon sink. These gases in solution produce ocean acidification.
So there are thermal effects and there are chemical effects, and there are chemical effects affected by thermal effects such as the amount of gas a heated ocean can hold in solution versus a cold one and how much methane melting permafrost releases when the arctic gets hot.
Now we seem to moved on to a Whole Earth-inspired "stability" argument, that presupposes that "life" cannot endure without anthropogenically imposed "stability".
No nature imposes that stability. Natural systems find equilibriums when factors in the environment change within tolerable levels. Disruptions that occur beyond tolerable levels cause mass extinctions. If human activity causes a big enough disruption, nature will find it's own equilibrium which will likely not be one where we can live well, if at all.
If "anthropogenic" CO2 is "bad" as you claim it is.... Why don't you give us the ideal atmospheric CO2 concentration (in parts per million of volume)? HUH?
A little above preindustrial levels should be fine as it suited us throughout the development of human civilization.
As long as it's cold enough to keep the methane in Siberia cold, I'm ducky.
But that is not what is happening. And before you complain about my models, Mr. Ouija board, come up with your own.
How about enough so
#32 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 28 Nov 2009 at 12:48 AM
How about enough so
A bugger. Disregard and delete that last sentence before the FOI guys see it. I was in a rush for the can because of some news I read about the albedo levels of sea ice versus the albedo levels of melted sea ice and I forgot to delete it.
I tried to use the old "undo" trick but that feature is broken on my browser. I don't want Lord Monckton reading incomplete sentences, he might try to disprove Carbon Dioxide with it. We should ban that guy from our journal. He's a douche.
#33 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 28 Nov 2009 at 01:31 AM
OMG! I typed that into my post window?! I thought I was typing into my chat window to Victor Navasky!
I'm so pwned.
#34 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 28 Nov 2009 at 01:35 AM
Since you're using Michael Mann's work as an authority on global cooling as a result of GHG, you might as well use him as an authority on the Climategate emails.
http://www.desmogblog.com/michael-mann-his-own-words-stolen-cru-emails
#35 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sat 28 Nov 2009 at 09:49 AM
padikiller queried: "If "anthropogenic" CO2 is "bad" as you claim it is.... Why don't you give us the ideal atmospheric CO2 concentration (in parts per million of volume)? HUH?"
Thimbles dodged to avoid numerical integrity: "A little above preindustrial levels should be fine as it suited us throughout the development of human civilization."
pakiller scoffs: First of all... Give us a number. Run your "model" and tell us, oh Climate Exper Emeriust, what precise concentration (or range of concentrations) we should maintain in the earth's atmosphere. Are we going to use the 330 ppm values from the preindustrial warming periods in medieval times? Or why not use the 760 ppm values (twice the current concentration) that existed 28 million years ago?
This simple truth of the matter is that you are just running off at the mouth and that you have no way to actually calculate an "ideal" atmospheric CO2 concentration. You only wish to see CO2 concentrations reduced to "preindustrial"caveman levels, because in your anti-capitalist mindset, industry is evil.
Thimbles prattled on: As long as it's cold enough to keep the methane in Siberia cold, I'm ducky.
padikiller: Now hold on there! You just admitted that CO2 concentrations are not correlated (at least not scientifically) to any particular temperature change. Given this admission, what (aside from a ouija board) makes you think that lowering CO2 concentrations will ice down your Siberian methane?
Thimbles just won't quit: And before you complain about my models, Mr. Ouija board, come up with your own.
padikiller" LOL!
In the interest of maintaining an honest debate here, let's substitute the phrase "anticapitalist, pseudoscientific nonsense" for "models" in your demand and see what happens...
"And before you complain about my anticapitalist, pseudoscientific nonsense, Mr. Ouija board, come up with your own [anticapitalist, pseudoscientific nonsense]."....
Too funny!... Let's try it with Bigfoot...
"And before you complain about my Bigfoot, Mr. Ouija board, come up with your own [nonexistent legendary primate]."....
How about invisible pink unicorns?
"And before you complain about my Invisible Pink Unicorns, Mr. Ouija board, come up with your own [Invisible Equines]."....
#36 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 28 Nov 2009 at 01:24 PM
pakiller scoffs: First of all... Give us a number. Run your "model" and tell us, oh Climate Exper Emeriust, what precise concentration (or range of concentrations) we should maintain in the earth's atmosphere. Are we going to use the 330 ppm values from the preindustrial warming periods in medieval times? Or why not use the 760 ppm values (twice the current concentration) that existed 28 million years ago?
Hey, I don't have a problem with 760 ppmv 28 million years from now. If carbon increases or decreases at a slow rate, nature can adjust with minor tweaks to find the new equilibrium. We're on a pace to double carbon dioxide within a century.
That's a big disruption. That doesn't give our current equilibriums, the natural systems we've relied on since humans built huts and traded seashells, time to adjust. A -60 ppmv of today would be a good level to restore so that, I say it again, methane from melting Siberian permafrost doesn't take over.
So that carbon and methane emitted from a heated carbon saturated ocean doesn't take over.
This is not about anti-capitalism, since it will take industry, technology, and investment to produce a society that is capable of meeting our wants while respecting our and the environment's needs. This isn't a step backwards. A step backwards would be pretending that the information within science is wrong because of your religious belief in exploitative capitalism where environmental costs are free. The environment cannot be, as they say in economics, an externalized cost. The environment is not external. It is not free. We cook the golden goose at a cost.
It is a step backwards to pretend there is no cost. The cost will be billions of dollars, if not lives.
Now hold on there! You just admitted that CO2 concentrations are not correlated (at least not scientifically) to any particular temperature change.
No I didn't. I said specifically that GHGs, by definition, increase the retention of energy by converting solar radiation to thermal. GHG increases cause thermal energy increases.
The effects of this increased thermal energy are increased temperatures, melting ice, possible temporary decreased temperatures in the ocean because of melting ice and other feedbacks, etc.. It's a complicated planet. If you put a bunch of thermal energy in the system, things get unpredictable.
But the reason why things get unpredictable is because things are getting warmer as a whole. There is more heat energy in the system.
And, right now, we are in control of the drivers in this system. We can increase or decrease atmospheric GHG if we choose. If we allow the heat energy to build to the point where carbon sinks start to empty, then we won't be in control. We are screwed.
Which puts us back to by original point, what Anti-AGW folks advocate is not a choice between change and not change, what they advocate is a choice between voluntary/preventative change and inescapable change. There are limits to our fuel reserves and dips in that supply cause giant fluctuations in price. These fuels are what we use to grow our food, make our plastics, and drive our cars. If the essential lubricant of our economies is subject to dips in supply as the planet's limited reserves are used up, then we don't have the choice of non-change.
Adapt or die; that's evolution. If we do not adapt to our supply problems or our waste problems then we will have earned our demise. We will be forced to go back to cave man tech if we use up the essential ingredient of our current industrial tech - oil. We have a choice to adapt. You advocate sticking your head in the soon to be desert sand, Mr Ouija.
Which brings me to my final point, don't confuse the issue. I said I wanted models and I meant it. Give me models, preferably Eva Green-like if you can manage.
#37 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 01:29 AM
Brother Thimbles reads from the AGW Bible: "We're on a pace to double carbon dioxide within a century. That's a big disruption. That doesn't give our current equilibriums, the natural systems we've relied on since humans built huts and traded seashells, time to adjust"
padikiller responds: Says WHO?... What scientific basis do you have for making this claim?... (HINT: The answer is "none")
Thimbles pulls a number from his hinter regions: " A -60 ppmv of today would be a good level to restore so that, I say it again, methane from melting Siberian permafrost doesn't take over."
padikiller chimes the Reality Bell once again: SAYS WHO?
#38 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 09:44 AM
Says the paper I quoted above in which the author states we can't predict how severe doubling carbon dioxide will be on us; the range is slightly severe to really really badly severe.
Look, I haven't failed to supply the science which has been well known and studied for a century.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius#Greenhouse_effect
Your argument is a bunch of "Says who?" "So What?" garbage in the face of facts.
"If you drop a ball on earth, it will accelerate towards he earth. This is known as the gravitational effect."
"SAYS WHO?"
"The guy who observed gravity and created a mathema..."
"SO WHAT?!"
"Well, if you're interested in gravity."
"Gravity is just a socialist conspiracy! You don't know how it works! You just create models and then record data to reinforce those models!"
"Well we do experiments and record observations to..."
"See? The reason why you have to do experiments is because you're not sure! You don't know! If you had a model that was 100% predictive you wouldn't need to experiment."
"Wha..."
"You just want to tie people to earth because you want to enslave them! You're a fraud! A kook! A..."
"What the hell is the matter with you, you moron?"
"HE CALLED ME A NAME! THE JUVENILE FRAUD CALLED ME A NAME! YOU ALL HEARD THE LYING LIB! EVERYONE HEARD YOU!"
"Look, gravity is so obvious that it can be proved outside your door..."
"No, it can't"
"Yes, it can. If you toss a ball out your 2nd story window., it accelerates towards the.."
"No, it doesn't."
"Yes it does."
"SAYS WHO?"
"SAYS THE GODDAMN BALL THAT IS ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE EARTH!"
"Oh, is that one of your experiments? Socialist. I have an Ayn Rand signed Ouija that tells the truth while you drink the gravity kool-aid, fool."
These are the best the skeptics can do, folks. You are looking at a simplified version of the same arguments all the skeptic, Fred Singer/Ted Lindzen-like, "academics" use.
And they are chaff in the wind when you dig into the actual science and the look at current observations of planetary data. They fear "socialism" more than they fear extinction and they think that gives them the right to impede our decisions based on a rational reading of the data.
Remember, our decision when it comes to energy and fossil resources is not choice between change and not change, it's between voluntary action by us or involuntary action by us and our children.
We have to choose between adapting now to preserve the riches of our planet or adapting later because our riches are either exhausted or destroyed by processes no longer in our control.
There are some who want to pretend that extinctions aren't occurring, that changes aren't in progress, and that - even if they are "SO WHAT? The changes are minimal. Life doesn't die. You're just quoting passages from your AGW Bible".
It's true. Life, so far, hasn't died. But it's been on the ropes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
An extinction event brought on by change of just 6°C over 20,000 years.
According to current data, we're likely on course to 6° change by the end of the century.
"SAYS WHO?!"
Shut up. Tell us who says it isn't and let them explain why with clear science. Some people are too woried about their taxes to worry about their children or their future.
Don't be these people, don't listen to these people. They are stupid and they will likely not thank you for saving their asses from extinction.
They will always complain about their taxes because that is the only real issue to them.
To us, the real issue is 6°C. Is that an
#39 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 01:37 PM
Brother Thimbles spins up: " Says the paper I quoted above in which the author states we can't predict how severe doubling carbon dioxide will be on us; the range is slightly severe to really really badly severe."
padikller responds: " We can't really predict" what CO2 does, but we need to knock the CO2 concentration down 60 ppm.?.. Right!.... Such utter, utter silliness eludes rational discourse.
Brother Thimbles sings the Third Psalm from the AGW Old Testament: Remember, our decision when it comes to energy and fossil resources is not choice between change and not change, it's between voluntary action by us or involuntary action by us and our children. We have to choose between adapting now to preserve the riches of our planet or adapting later because our riches are either exhausted or destroyed by processes no longer in our control.
padikiller: Brother Thimbles is damned good on the pulpit. Now it's all about the CHANGE and the CHILDREN!....
We have to "adapt" now in order to thwart the dreaded " Unspecified Involuntary Processes of Doom" lest our loin fruits be done out their "riches"!....
Preach on it, Brother! So what if man-made CO2 only accounts for less than five percent of atmospheric CO2? Damn the science, full speed ahead!....
#40 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 03:20 PM
Since the thread here seems to have hijacked completely, here is an interesting excerpt from an article on the Climategate fiasco in The Telegraph:
But the question which inevitably arises from this systematic refusal to release their data is – what is it that these scientists seem so anxious to hide? The second and most shocking revelation of the leaked documents is how they show the scientists trying to manipulate data through their tortuous computer programmes, always to point in only the one desired direction – to lower past temperatures and to "adjust" recent temperatures upwards, in order to convey the impression of an accelerated warming. This comes up so often (not least in the documents relating to computer data in the Harry Read Me file) that it becomes the most disturbing single element of the entire story. This is what Mr McIntyre caught Dr Hansen doing with his GISS temperature record last year (after which Hansen was forced to revise his record), and two further shocking examples have now come to light from Australia and New Zealand.
In each of these countries it has been possible for local scientists to compare the official temperature record with the original data on which it was supposedly based. In each case it is clear that the same trick has been played – to turn an essentially flat temperature chart into a graph which shows temperatures steadily rising. And in each case this manipulation was carried out under the influence of the CRU.
#41 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 03:47 PM
Cite and link, please.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html
Oh goody. A Christopher Booker article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker
How's Booker's evolution is bunk, asbestos is talcum powder, war of words going?
I don't suppose he's discredited for making stupid wrong statements, is he?
#42 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 04:21 PM
I don't know anything about the columnist, I'm not vouching for him or even taking him at his word... However, he mentions some events that should be fairly easy to verify or refute-- It appears that "Dr." Hansen got caught with his hand in the cookie jar of academic fraud and was forced to come clean.
It also appears that there are allegations of fraud in Australia and New Zealand that should be easy enough to examine.
#43 Posted by padikiler, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 04:52 PM
"I don't know who this guy is or what he says, but I'm going to quote his words to people as if it's credible news because his words match my own cookie cutter views. And if it turns out he's less credible than a rodeo clown shock jock, never mind people in the peer reviewed scientific community, I'll just tell people to refute what he says because even a broken clock is right twice a day. In other words, you know what we do with science? It's important you do the opposite with skeptics."
You guys have such chutzpah.
#44 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 09:38 PM
Take a chill pill, Dude...
I don't run the bio on every news reporter who writes an article I find on the internet. Like I said, I'm not vouching for the guy - but the allegations are specific and intriguing.
He could be thre craziest loon in the world - but if he's right, then the AGK kooks will have some 'spainin' to do...
#45 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 10:18 PM
It looks like we'll never be able to fact-check the CRU
Gone Data Gone:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece
#46 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 29 Nov 2009 at 10:43 PM
I learned a lot form that link padkiller. For instance. I learned that in the Timor Sea, they've had an ongoing derrick leak which spewed out an estimated 500 million liters of oil, until the company sealed it on November 3. It's a leak they've had since the end of August.
Nearly 3 months of trying and they couldn't shut the thing down. 500 million liters? That's over ten beached Valdezes.
And I would not have heard a thing about it had I not followed your link because it's a pretty dead story outside Australia and a couple of mentions in the British press.
If I was a reporter in a country getting ready to stick deep sea straws into coastline waters because of a desired "drill here, drill now" policy, I'd be interested in finding out how that accident occurred and what safeguards do the oil extractors here have to prevent the 3 month - can't seal the leak disasters going on over there.
Looks like some senators are making connections between here and there:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6730185.html
One senator is calling for an investigation into Seadrill which runs a rig in the Gulf of Mexico:
http://menendez.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/?id=23181D1C-BF9C-4C78-9120-762B25FEBDED
Anyways, never would have learned about any of that if I didn't use your link. Thanks.
#47 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 30 Nov 2009 at 01:12 PM
http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/environment/article/732009---permanent-arctic-ice-vanishing
One of Canada's top northern researchers says the permanent Arctic sea ice that is home to the world's polar bears and usually survives the summer has all but disappeared.
Experts around the world believed the ice was recovering because satellite images showed it expanding. But David Barber says the thick, multi-year frozen sheets crucial to the northern ecosystem have been replaced by thin "rotten" ice that can't support weight of the bears. "It caught us all by surprise because we were expecting there to be multi-year sea ice. The whole world thought it was multi-year sea ice," said Barber, who just returned from an expedition to the Beaufort Sea.
"Unfortunately, what we found was that the multi-year (ice) has all but disappeared. What's left is this remnant, rotten ice."...
The ice is unable to withstand battering waves and storms because global warming is rapidly melting it at a rate of 70,000 square kilometres each year, he said.
Multi-year sea ice used to cover 90 per cent of the Arctic basin, Barber said. It now covers 19 per cent. Where it used to be up to 10 metres thick, it's now 2 metres at most...
Although northern sea ice hit a record low in 2007, researchers believed it was recovering because of what they were seeing on satellite images.
But the images the experts relied on were misleading because the rotten ice looks sturdy on the surface and has a similar superficial temperature, Barber explained.
Global cooling.
#48 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 30 Nov 2009 at 09:18 PM
What about the BEARS?
Who will thing about the BEARS?...
Stop the Madness!.....
It's a wonder the poor polar bears somehow managed to survive the Medieval Global Warming Period, when Greenland was warm enough to colonize!
#49 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 30 Nov 2009 at 09:50 PM
Hey, it was you who mentioned "The earth is C O O L I N G" and put it in ALL CAPS for everyone to see.
I'm talking about ice, not bears.
#50 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 30 Nov 2009 at 10:16 PM
Thimbles wrote: I'm talking about ice, not bears.
padikiller responds: What about the BEARS? Who will save the BEARS when the ice melts under their fluffy paws?
Where is your bear sensitivity, you cruel, anti-ursine?
#51 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 30 Nov 2009 at 11:35 PM
Bears eat cute little harp seals so my protest sympathies are divided.
#52 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 1 Dec 2009 at 12:25 AM