In the thick of Jonathan Alter’s Newsweek cover story this week — headline, “The Race Is On. Obama & Hillary Are Already Squaring Off Over 2008. But is America Ready For Either One?” — comes this paragraph (emphasis ours):
It’s hard to assess the strength of anti-Hillary sentiment in the country. Her advisers point to her huge re-election victory in New York … The national polls sponsored by “Hillaryland” (as her universe is known) are similarly encouraging. But the gap between what voters say they would do and how they think their neighbors would react raises suspicions. “It makes me think these polls are phony as hell,” says former representative Pat Schroeder, who abandoned a possible presidential campaign in 1988. “There’s a hard core out there who won’t vote for a woman.”
Could it be that Newsweek, too, thinks “these polls are phony as hell” — including its own December 6-7, 2006 poll? Why else would the magazine have ignored much of its own polling data in this story — and the “newsiest” bits of their polling data at that (if, that is, you believe — as most in the media seem to — that a snapshot of what 1,000 Americans think right now about assorted hypothetical contests that are still over a year off qualifies as news).
Let’s back up for a moment. What is the purported purpose of Alter’s piece? Among the questions Alter ponders: Are we ready to elect a woman to the presidency? A black man? For which are we readier? And, can we really separate these abstract questions from the individuals themselves? (No, we can’t.) So when it comes to Clinton v. Obama, who has the better shot? In other words, this is as much a speculative piece about the outcome of an imagined Clinton v. Obama contest as it is a think piece about the question, Is America Ready for a Minority in the White House?
So, who is better positioned in the hypothetical face-off Newsweek Photoshopped onto its cover? Newsweek’s own poll offered one answer (a premature, moment-in-time and likely meaningless answer, but an answer of sorts nonetheless). The magazine’s poll showed Clinton leading Obama 50 to 32 percent among “registered Democrats and Democratic leaners.” (Of course, this poll pre-dated by a few days Obama’s Big New Hampshire Moment — a Moment that, combined with the media’s reaction to it, might have changed this poll’s results. Or not.) Oddly, this 50 to 32 data made it into Newsweek’s press release about the cover story, but not into the story itself. Why? Did it not fit into the “Race Is On” theme the magazine was going for?
There was plenty of other Newsweek polling data that didn’t make it into Newsweek’s story. In fact, people who put credence in polling of this sort might argue that Newsweek left out all the newsiest bits from its poll. For example, unlike other recent polls, Newsweek’s poll showed Clinton beating Sen. John McCain 50 to 43 among registered voters asked which candidate they’d vote for (Clinton or McCain) if the election were today. When the choices were Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, it was Clinton 48, Giuliani 47. The poll showed Obama, too, running competitively against both Republicans (McCain 45, Obama 43; Giuliani 47, Obama 44). Of course, most of these results are still within the 4 percent margin of error. That, and it’s only December 2006. Still, mightn’t this data contribute to a discussion of candidates Clinton and Obama and who might actually make it to the White House, if that is the discussion to which one purports to be contributing? (New York tabloids know from newsy — the New York Post and Newsday yesterday offered far more thorough reports of Newsweek’s poll findings than Newsweek did itself — a fact to which Newsday alluded in its piece but the Post did not, preferring instead to give “Clinton pollster Mark Penn” a couple of paragraphs to explain why Hillary is a formidable candidate — make that presumptive candidate.)