House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) visited Fox News Sunday this weekend and confirmed last week’s reporting suggesting a GOP budget proposal released tomorrow would strike a blow to Medicare. The 2012 budget proposal, Ryan said, would exceed the recommendations of the president’s fiscal commission and cut $4 trillion from the federal budget over the next decade. Medicare and Medicaid would come under the scalpel—or axe or buzz saw depending on your view of things.
The Wall Street Journal summed it all up in a story with a headline likely to set Republican faces smiling today: ”GOP Aim: Cut $4 Trillion,” with a subhead reading, “Budget Plan Would Transform Medicare, Reset Budget Debate; Democrats Balk.” In the report, Naftali Bendavid launches off from Ryan’s visit to the Fox News Sunday show to lay out the proposal, which centers on entitlement reform to the two big Medis.
The plan would essentially end Medicare, which now pays most of the health-care bills for 48 million elderly and disabled Americans, as a program that directly pays those bills. Mr. Ryan and other conservatives say this is necessary because of the program’s soaring costs. Medicare cost $396.5 billion in 2010 and is projected to rise to $502.8 billion in 2016. At that pace, spending on the program would have doubled between 2002 and 2016.
Mr. Ryan’s proposal would apply to those currently under the age of 55, and for those Americans would convert Medicare into a “premium support” system. Participants from that group would choose from an array of private insurance plans when they reach 65 and become eligible, and the government would pay about the first $15,000 in premiums. Those who are poorer or less healthy would receive bigger payments than others.
The proposal would also convert Medicaid, the health program for the poor, into a series of block grants to give states more flexibility. And it is expected to suggest significant cuts in Social Security, while proposing fewer details on how to achieve them.
The federal government expects to spend about $275 billion in 2011 on Medicaid, the program that provides medical care to the poor and disabled, up from $117.9 billion in 2000. The Congressional Budget Office projects Medicaid spending will roughly double by 2021.
And on taxes:
Conservative activists who are familiar with the Ryan plan said they expect it to call for a fundamental overhaul of the tax system, with a 25% top rate for both individuals and corporations, compared to the current 35% top rate. It is expected to raise about the same amount of money as the current system, however. Lawmakers already are considering ways to accomplish that by reducing or eliminating some deductions and other tax breaks.
The Journal’s fixation on numbers—look how much more expensive life’s going to be without a GOP plan like this!—and the complicated nature of the budget and health care debates make it easy to get lost in the weeds when trying to get a grip on what’s being proposed by Ryan and his committee. Here are some suggested places to go for clarification: