TM: Social Security is based on two competing concepts—the adequacy of benefits and the fairness of the benefits in light of the contributions made. Those who have earned lower incomes get a higher portion of their pre-retirement income and a higher portion of their contributions (what they paid into the system). Those at the top of the income distribution get a higher benefit in absolute dollars. But their benefits are a lower proportion of their previous wages and salaries than is the case for lower income pensioners.
Raising the wage base will produce additional revenues, of course, but the net effect on Social Security’s finances will depend on whether benefits are proportionately raised. To the extent they are not raised, this would redistribute income from higher wage and salary earners to lower wage and salary earners while reducing Social Security’s projected gap between revenues and benefits. A few decades ago, Social Security’s wage base covered about 90 percent of Americans’ wage and salary income. Today it covers 84 percent. To return to that proportionate coverage of wage income would be another step we could take.
TL: What’s the rationale for this redistribution?
TM: In any insurance, private or social, there’s always redistribution from those who don’t suffer a risk to those who do. It’s pooling on the financing of insurance and paying out when the risk is experienced. In a private pension plan, someone who paid in twice as much would get twice the benefit. But that is not so with Social Security.
Simply put, paying more in Social Security taxes than someone else means generally you will receive a higher pension. But it does not mean your higher pension will be proportionately increased by the percentage difference in contributions. Social Security pensions, as noted above, are more generous to the less wealthy, and in that sense redistribute income in the name of more generous pensions for the less lucky. Since we don’t know how our incomes will turn out at the end of our careers, Social Security compensates at the end for those whose incomes have been in the lower half of the distribution. The idea behind Social Security is to insure a more adequate insurance benefit to those at the lower part of the income scale, but at the same time not to reverse the rank order of the income of pensioners.
TL: Doesn’t everyone get Social Security disability and survivors’ benefits? How does the redistribution work here?
TM: Every family with a worker who has worked at least ten quarters is eligible for benefits if the worker becomes permanently disabled or dies.
TL: Would means testing be one way to address the projected gap after 2039?
TM: The short answer is no. If those with incomes over $250,000 were denied benefits, you could not find that effect in the accounts of Social Security. It would make no difference in the program’s future fiscal circumstances, because such a small proportion of American families enjoy incomes that high.
TL: What would means testing ultimately do to the program?
TM: It would reduce the interest of upper income Americans in the fate of Social Security, and in that respect reduce its political support.
TL: Is means testing a way to privatize the system through the back door?
TM: I don’t think this is a useful way of evaluating means testing. Means testing is the opposite of Social Security’s principles. Tests of means suggest that one receives benefits if and only if one is in trouble. Benefit promises of pensions—with public support so strong—are much more like a secure guarantee, one closer to a platform than a safety net. Safety nets have holes, large or small, and their level can be lower or higher from the ground. Social insurance, when widely supported, is much closer to an assurance rather than a charitable gift.
TL: Are there groups who do not believe in social insurance?
Trudy, your talking points on Social Security are getting tired and played out: Social Security is fiscally sound, the “trust fund” will save it, benefit cuts will force the elderly to eat cat food and conservatives are hell bent on destroying Social Security because it works. Lather, rinse, dry, and repeat as needed. Little surprise that you brought an expert, Ted Marmor, to buttress this ridiculous line of argument.
As in your previous article, however, this one has some rather glaring errors that are just too substantive to not address.
Social Security in 2010 reduces the deficit from what it otherwise would be; more FICA taxes are taken in than pension benefits paid out. But then revenues will be less than taxes paid until 2016. But that doesn’t mean people won’t get their benefits.
Uhh, that’s not going to happen in 2016, its happening today. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/25/business/economy/25social.html?_r=1
#1 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Wed 21 Jul 2010 at 07:28 PM
Pollyannish views to support a political point of view. As the professor alludes to, but glosses over, people are living longer increasing the amount of benefits that have to be paid out if the retirement age isn't raised. As neither he or Trudy mention, the birth rate is down so fewer workers (in relative terms) will be contributing to the system to fund payments to the retired. It is correct that this doesn't become an actual funding issue for quite some time, but waiting for the crisis to hit isn't exactly good policy. At some point (assuming longevity doesn't suddenly deteriorate), benefits will have to be cut in some fashion (such as delaying the retirement age or means testing, or absolute cuts) or taxes will have to be raised.
#2 Posted by Jerry, CJR on Wed 21 Jul 2010 at 08:33 PM
I just re-read your Nytimes article and a couple of things popped out. First, the report cited by the times is not from the Social Security Agency. Here is the trustee report:
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TRSUM/
it says "First year outgo exceeds income excluding interest" is 2017.
Your NYtimes articel references this link:
http://www.cbo.gov/budget/factsheets/2010b/OASDI-TrustFunds.pdf
Which says "the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes," but that's not all it says.
It has other revenues which exceed total outgo until, golly gee, past the time frame of the cbo report ending in 2020. You only have a small shortfall if you exclude interest from the trust fund surplus. Mind you, that's not the same as tapping the surplus, that's just including the interest. The biggest shortfall? In 2010 the shortfall will be 28 billion because of the recession, which translates into a 91 billion surplus if you include trust fund interest.
From 2016 to 2020 there are shortfalls. 2018 -36 billion, 2019 -57 billion, 2020 -78 billion.
Including interest those translate into surpluses of 124 billion, 113 billion, and 102 billion respectively.
These are using your cbo numbers.
So where is your crisis now? At worst, excluding trust surplus income, you have -236 billion more paid out than take in by 2020. Including that income, by your numbers, you have a 1.4 trillion surplus.
Who's got empty talking points again?
#3 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 21 Jul 2010 at 09:13 PM
Oh Thimbles! What am I going to do with you!
It has other revenues which exceed total outgo until, golly gee, past the time frame of the cbo report ending in 2020.
Herds of unicorns don’t fly over a clover filled pasture in Pennsylvania and defecate their magically laced manure to fertilize lush orchards of money trees. This “other revenue” is in the form of interest payments on bonds issued to the federal government. In other words, its money that comes from general revenues to pay for any shortfalls in Social Security. Just like we have now, not in 2017 or 2020.
These interest payments are not “taxes paid” as was said in the article.
Our “crisis now” is that there is no extra money in the discretionary budget to cover these interest repayments to the Social Security administration.
But I wont wait for Trudy to mention that …. just doesn’t jive with the story she wants to write.
#4 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Wed 21 Jul 2010 at 09:44 PM
The money exists to cover the interest payments, the Bush tax cuts will expire and there are plenty of revenues to be gotten in a 14 trillion dollar economy if the will to do so is applied. Even if the money didn't exist, it would cause a shortfall of 240 billion over ten years, according to your source... that's 1.7% of an annual 14 trillion dollar economy, never mind the revenues of that economy spread over 10 years.
That's NOTHING to hyperventilate about.
There are other fallacies of common wisdom worth trashing:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2010/07/killing-zombie-lies-and-exploding.html
But the major one is that social security has an immediate crisis. No, it has bonds that pay out interest. It has bonds that it can cash in. It has other revenues other than payroll taxes. It has a base income which could be raised and I don't give a damn whether you don't like it or not, bare bones benefits should not get cut to preserve the income disparity of the complaining greedy few, who got tax cuts during the 8 years of Bush paid from FICA revenues. You keep defending that for some reason. I say fine, keep it up. You're going to get your income tax cut revoked and pay extra on top to top up fund shortfalls anyways.
A whole 240 billion over ten years, how will you survive.
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 21 Jul 2010 at 11:11 PM
the gap in understanding and policy commentary between Mike H and Timbles/Jerry is worth noting even though no amount of dialogue is likely to bring their views closer together. One side regards interest owed to the Social Security system as a fiscal drain that is worrisome; the other side notes that this is owed the pension system because cohorts of workers paid taxes to fund pensions at the time in exchange for promises to have their pension financed in the future.
References to birds shitting in Pennsylvania does not add anything but an unfortunate odor to what should be serious commentary.
Ted Marmor
#6 Posted by Ted Marmor, CJR on Thu 22 Jul 2010 at 10:54 AM
One side regards interest owed to the Social Security system as a fiscal drain that is worrisome; the other side notes that this is owed the pension system because cohorts of workers paid taxes to fund pensions at the time in exchange for promises to have their pension financed in the future
These two items are not mutually exclusive. The interest owed to Social Security is both legally owed to the fund and a fiscal drain.
And Ted, it was a unicorn, not a bird.
#7 Posted by Mike H, CJR on Thu 22 Jul 2010 at 11:44 AM