A recent CBS MoneyWatch piece titled “Social Insecurity” was one of those breezy, glib stories that seemed to telegraph important stuff, especially to the younger set, but actually typified the kind of shallow, incomplete coverage of Social Security we’ve seen in the last two years. That kind of reportage does a disservice to audiences and leaves them with misleading information. MoneyWatch did just that.
The story gave a brief history of Social Security asserting that “while Social Security started as a safety net, it morphed over time into one of the three streams of retirement income: Social Security, pension benefits and savings.” Social Security was intended to replace wages lost due to old age and death. It had much broader goals than simply providing retirement income, a rather modern-day term. Furthermore, as the program was gearing up in 1939, its actuaries predicted that it would replace certain percentages of income for beneficiaries. Paul Van de Water, a Social Security expert at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, points out that replacement rates today—the percentage of income Social Security replaces—has basically stayed the same over the years and are, in fact, beginning to decline as the retirement age gradually increases to sixty-seven. The idea that Social Security began as a tiny program and grew like Topsy just isn’t so, said Nancy Altman, co-director of Social Security Works, a progressive group that supports improving and protecting Social Security.
MoneyWatch also trotted out those shopworn—and scary—numbers about the shifting ratio of workers to beneficiaries, reporting that in 1940 there were forty-two workers per retiree; in 1950 there were sixteen workers for each retiree; now it’s 3.3, and in forty years, there will be only two workers per retiree. “Something has to give,” said MoneyWatch.
“The system’s actuaries understood very well people would live longer, and they took that into account with all their projections,” explained Altman. “Politicians have been using these misleading figures for a long time.” In 2004, when George W. Bush used them to build support for privatizing Social Security, Robert Ball, who served as Social Security commissioner under three presidents, sent me a note:
The plain fact of the matter is that Social Security faces an eminently avoidable long-range funding shortfall, not an inevitable collapse brought about by unmanageable changes in the historic ratio of workers to beneficiaries. Those who advance that argument are using an accurate statistic to make a highly inaccurate charge.
Altman said these ratios are crude measures that don’t tell you anything about affordability, which depends not just on the number of workers but also on productivity of those workers, which has been increasing. If such ratios have not influenced policy makers and are not good indicators of the nation’s ability to afford the program, why do the media keep using them? Because they are simple to understand and easily fit the dominant political narrative about Social Security—that we cannot afford it, and it must radically change it.
Altman and others believe there’s a better way to judge whether a particular program is affordable. That measure is the percentage of GDP the country spends on it. In the case of Social Security, spending is roughly 4.8 percent of GDP increasing to six percent in a few decades when the proportion of the population over age sixty-five increases from about twelve to twenty percent. It will remain there for the foreseeable future.
The question is whether we want to spend six percent of GDP on Social Security for everyone, which is less than many European countries now spend for old age pensions, or reduce it in favor of other programs? Or do we want to spend more and improve benefits? That is the political question on the table, which few in the media have directly addressed. MoneyWatch did not go there, but instead argued people will have to fend for themselves.

Right, Trudy. This kind of reporting is cliched, predictable and misleading.
There are some trends to watch though. SSI and SSDI, the "disability" part of social security, have "grown like Topsy" over the past few decades. That does two things to injure SS's viability long-term. 1, it draws more money out now. 2. it removes more people from the paying-in workforce. This is not the fault of SS or its actuaries, of course, but of policy-makers who have thrown blue-collar people overboard as their jobs have become "globalized."
The second big trend to watch is the reduction of the percentage of working-age people who pay into SS because they either work wholly within the shadow economy or join the ranks of desperate "entrepreneurs" running putatively legal "work from home" scams and other socioeconomic detritus. SS was predicated on a system in which most people had steady work at increasing pay, which was automatically dunned of taxes due. Compare a typical taxi cab company today with its 1970s forebears and see the effect certain business models have on the tax withholding system. The New Economic Order has less and less of that sort of thing, and it's going to matter quite a lot.
#1 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Wed 8 Feb 2012 at 03:20 PM
"The writer must be on another planet." Exactly. I have yet to hear any politicians or pundits or reporters or editorialists who advocate Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid benefit) cuts tell us how older Americans are supposed to replace the lost benefits and survive financially. It's a total disconnect. With rampant age discrimination in employment, the disappearance of defined benefit pension plans, declining real wages, and unaffordable/unavailable health insurance, how are older people supposed to wait longer for Social Security and Medicare and deal with long-term care needs? They don't address it because they can't answer it, certainly not with the social insurance cutbacks and privatization they propose). They resort to saying, well, we just can't afford those programs. More journalists need to push back and ask, "How can Americans afford NOT to have robust and well-funded Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid?"
#2 Posted by Harris Meyer, CJR on Wed 8 Feb 2012 at 08:15 PM
MoneyWatch regrets the error. LOL.
#3 Posted by Mark Elliot, CJR on Fri 10 Feb 2012 at 02:17 AM
I find your blog one of the more intelligent commentary available. I have a question you might investigate for a future column.
The big debate is about cutting the payroll tax which I understand pays into social security. Without getting into the merits or demerits of the policy, I can't help but speculate this is a popular way of scaling back the Social Security system via a seemingly popular equitable program.
I would be interested in your thoughts.
#4 Posted by David Reno, CJR on Fri 10 Feb 2012 at 02:03 PM
About this:
"The question is whether we want to spend six percent of GDP on Social Security for everyone, which is less than many European countries now spend for old age pensions, or reduce it in favor of other programs? Or do we want to spend more and improve benefits?"
I know I'm about to say something very stupid about econ stats but at times I have misread a statement like '6% of GDP' for Social Security, or '18% of GDP' for healthcare, as describing the flat-tax rates for payroll deductions, possibly combined with out of pocket expense. For example, early in health reform I heard Taiwan spends 6% of GDP on healthcare (something like that) and I thought that meant their payroll tax rate is 6%. I mention it because a big question I keep searching for an answer is exactly what are the proper proportions for Americans to spend/save on health and retirements benefits? We get mixed messages about that, such as the drumbeat about SS's imminent demise and then a big fight about reducing the payroll tax by a few percentage points as being great for the economy. Then there are the limits for tax-deferred savings in 401Ks that suggest greater than 10% of payroll income is the desired proportion.
At this point I see saving for retirement as a very good idea but ordinary Americans face jeopardy in our decisions about that. So I now regard the lectures about saving as admonishments that essentially shift blame to individuals for not being good enough. Yes, we should be sensible and responsible about financial decisions but the lectures reinforce the false assumption that this game is winnable by playing by those rules. When it comes to health and retirement benefits, I think most of are on a sliding scale of being stuck and most don't even realize it. So just wanted to mention that, curious about the relationships between GDP and individual rates for health & retirement and the similarities or differences in the effectiveness or pain points for those rates.
#5 Posted by MB, CJR on Fri 10 Feb 2012 at 03:10 PM
To David Reno:
Some Social Security experts do believe the payroll tax holiday could jeopardize Social Security in the future. We have commented on this from time to time. See
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/a_good_payroll_tax_piece_from.php
#6 Posted by Trudy Lieberman, CJR on Mon 13 Feb 2012 at 08:36 AM