NS: Yeah. And we’re going to try and provide more data to people on the Congress, so you can look up someone’s voting record, for example, in a way that we think is more interesting and intelligible than you might be able to find elsewhere right now. Maybe it’d be something where, if you have a vote in the House, you can try to map out and model, ‘Why did people vote for this bill? Are there any people that look like they should have voted for this bill, and didn’t? And, if so, why didn’t they?’ And then maybe you tie that in with, say, lobbying money. So there’s a lot of creative ideas we have. It’ll never be horse race stuff, I don’t think. But we have a midterm in 2010—I think it’s going to be really interesting—and we have some gubernatorial elections next year, and there’ll be special elections, and stuff like that. The news tends to make itself. During the Clinton administration, when the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, for example: We would have our ! own FiveThirtyEight way to cover that. Probably not talking about the gossip, but looking at his approval ratings and stuff like that. It’s a busy time in the world, and I think there’ll be no lack of things that we can lend our expertise to. Obviously, our bread and butter will probably be election years.
And, hey, there’s going to be a big fight going on in the GOP, as well. Just like you had a year-long Democratic primary this year, I think you’re really going to see a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican party, beginning early in 2011 and people positioning themselves in different ways. It’ll be fun, because, as we say on the Web site…I mean, I hope we have a reputation for being fair and balanced—maybe I shouldn’t use that particular phrase, but—I think it’ll be interesting, really, as a disinterested observer—and not really disinterested, I think it’s really interesting—to be able to cover that primary and say, ‘Who do I really think will win?’ I hope people can really trust my take if I say, ‘You know what? I think Mitt Romney’s really got it this year.’ I hope people can take that as authoritative and interesting when we get to 2011 or so.
We can also look at more everyday economic issues. Every time you pick up a newspaper, you can probably circle two or three items in every section where there’s some piece of quantitative or fiscal information reported that might not be reported all that smartly—so we can do a little of that, too. There was a book a few years ago, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, and we can make something like that a semi-regular feature: just things that amuse or annoy us about reporting—reporting in finance and medicine and certainly sports, which is part of my background, and pop culture—how it’s always like, ‘Well, the biggest box office gross…’ (well, but it’s not adjusted for inflation). Little things like that—the result of having a lot of English majors in the newsroom and not as many math majors.
MG: What’s your daily media diet? Do you have papers and sites that you read every day?

"Silver’s unique combination of accuracy with numbers and accessibility with narrative made FiveThirtyEight, founded in March 2008, the first blog ever to be selected as a Notable Narrative by Harvard’s Nieman Foundation."
And that distinction is well deserved!
My initial visit to his blog-site was shortly after its launch in March of this year, during the Democratic Presidential primaries, and I've never stopped going.
When the nominees were finally chosen and their Presidential campaigns really kicked off, FiveThirtyEight became THE place for me to go, nearly everyday, for in-depth and accurate polling information.
To the degree that I trust any polls or projections, Nate Silver is the man_and he's to be commended for a job well done!
Posted by Deb. J. on Wed 12 Nov 2008 at 08:47 AM
Count me among the frequent visitors to 538 during the past election season. It was really the only place which aggregated the polls in a sensible way.
With the huge increase in polling data this year, there was a lot of confusion in which ones to trust, and whose model would hold up.
What Nate did was to make all this very sensible, and for those of us with election-anxiety (and there were many!) this very rational approach was reassuring.
As a doctor, I share Nate's view that the same approach can be done with medicine and medical research reporting. Again, much public anxiety can be alleviated with reason, particularly in the area of infectious diseases and public health concerns.
Posted by dkarl on Wed 12 Nov 2008 at 11:00 AM
Nate had an amazing track record. But this article is off on the popular vote numbers. Its actually Obama 52.6, McCain 46.1.
Seems small, but George W. Bush's 50.7% was consistently rounded up to 51%, and yet Obama's is being rounded down to 52%. Its annoying (although CNN has corrected it).
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Posted by JoshA on Wed 12 Nov 2008 at 11:42 AM
@JoshA: Thanks for writing (and you make a good point about rounding). There are slight discrepancies in the popular vote count among various outlets -- partially because of Missouri's outstanding projections. Since CNN rounds its numbers, I'm curious: where are you getting the 52.6/46.1 breakdown?
For the post, I was relying on Nov. 5's popular vote count for the 52.4/46.3 breakdown...but the AP currently has its projection at 52.7 Obama to 46.0 McCain. I'm deferring to that, and have amended the post to reflect the most recent info.
Posted by Megan Garber on Wed 12 Nov 2008 at 07:01 PM
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah...Numbers, statistics, whatever. The real news is that Nate is hot! Super-geek-stud.
Posted by Joe on Wed 12 Nov 2008 at 07:07 PM