Nationwide, America appears to be almost equally divided, with Democrats and Republicans in a 50-50 balance. If nothing else, that ought to lead to plenty of spirited back-and-forth among friends and neighbors, right?
Nope. Look closer and that balance goes up in smoke.
That’s the conclusion of an exceptional analysis of national election returns since 1948, published in yesterday’s Austin American-Statesman (subscription required).
The truth is, the American-Statesman‘s Bill Bishop writes, Americans are living in politically segregated communities more than ever, which contributes to deep polarization, increasingly extremist ideology, and an absence of debate over issues — once the cornerstone of the electoral process. (After all, what is there to debate when all your neighbors and colleagues agree with you?)
Along with statistical consultant Robert Cushing, Bishop analyzed voting patterns in the nation’s more than 3,100 counties. At that level, he concludes, communities have become more lopsidedly Republican or Democratic than at any time in the past half-century.
As a result, the give-and-take dialogue that once helped shape voters’ views has disappeared. When like-minded people cluster, writes Bishop, “[t]hey tend to become more extreme in their thinking. They polarize.” And they push their elected representatives in state houses and the Congress to adopt more extreme positions, making compromise more difficult.
“This country-wide sorting of people and ideas is the unexamined backstage story of the nation’s increasingly rancorous politics,” Bishop writes.
Campaign Desk was beginning to fear that this kind of insightful, in-depth and thoroughly researched political analysis had gone the way of the snail-darter. Bishop’s article stands head-and-shoulders above the rest as a lonely example of what can be produced when a newspaper is willing to invest time and effort on an issue of not just local, but national, significance.
Among other things, Bishop’s effort shows that it isn’t necessary to be headquartered in New York or Washington to produce thought-out, memorable coverage of the electorate. (In fact, from what we’ve been reading lately, it may hurt.)
We’re hoping it’s not too late for the rest of the campaign press to take the cue.
–Susan Q. Stranahan
Susan Q. Stranahan wrote for CJR.