
By now we’re accustomed to weak reporting about Social Security, but a piece on Yahoo Finance, part of its “Just Explain It” series, is a real doozey. It does not come within one centimeter of explaining Social Security, and instead misleads the 16,089 readers, as of mid-day Monday, who have weighed in with comments, plus thousands of others who didn’t. It’s a textbook example of scare mongering.
For starters, the writer, Samantha Wender, doesn’t seem to know what Social Security is. It is not a “social welfare program” as she calls it. It is social (or group) insurance that protects against lost wages in old age, from disability, and when a family breadwinner dies. It is like traditional employer group pension plans, and not like food stamps, which is indeed a means-tested welfare program.
Then Wender gives her audiences what she says is a “quick history lesson,” explaining that Social Security was “originally a retirement program—nothing more. Now the program distributes several social welfare and insurance benefits,” somehow implying that there is something wrong with this. And in fact, a small survivors’ benefit was part of Social Security from the beginning, and Congress quickly improved it. Disability benefits were added in 1956, and requirements for eligibility are very strict.
Wender describes the system’s pay-as-you-go feature: Current workers pay into the system and earn a right to a benefit later on, while their contributions finance benefits for today’s retirees. She reports that the number of current workers is declining relative to retirees, so thus the system is in a dire financial pickle. “As baby boomers continue to retire at a record clip, approximately 10,000 on any given day, this model becomes harder to maintain,” she writes. As proof, Wender says the ratio of workers to retirees was 7.11 in 1950; 4.5 today; and will be 2.6 in 30 years. Those numbers are wrong, by the way. In his corrective column Friday Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, gave the correct stats from the Social Security trustees report, showing that in 1950 the ratio was 16.5; today it’s 2.8; and is projected to be 2.2 in 30 years.
But more important: the focus on the ratios is misleading. Two weeks ago, we awarded a laurel to The Motley Fool for busting Social Security myths—including this pervasive one about declining ratio of workers to retirees. “A declining proportion of workers to beneficiaries doesn’t automatically mean Social Security can’t support its beneficiaries because workers become more productive over time,” reporter Ilan Moscovitz wrote. He noted that productivity has increased nearly 80 percent in the last 30 years. And we are a richer country than we were 30 years ago, one that can well afford to maintain Social Security benefits. The US spends 5 percent of GDP on Social Security. By comparison: In 2000, Germany spent nearly 12 percent of its GDP on old age, survivor, and disability benefits.
In a previous post, I noted that no less an expert on Social Security than the late Robert Ball, who served as commissioner for many years, explained the declining ratio this way to interested reporters a few years before his death in 2008:
The plain fact of the matter is that Social Security faces an eminently avoidable long-range funding shortfall, not an inevitable collapse brought about by unmanageable changes in the historic ratio of workers to beneficiaries. Those who advance that argument are using an accurate statistic to make a highly inaccurate charge.
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"It is social (or group) insurance..."
Why has the program been increasing the general deficit since the 2010 Obama-GOP tax deal if the FICA taxes are just insurance premiums?
"It is like traditional employer group pension plans..."
No, it isn't, because private sector pension plans are not "pay as you go." They invest in real assets, like property or the stock market, unlike Social Security.
"requirements for [disability benefits] are very strict."
Then why are the number of people on these benefits soaring? See this story:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/social-security-disability-program-reveals-budget-quagmire/2012/02/10/gIQA261V9Q_story.html
"A declining proportion of workers to beneficiaries doesn’t automatically mean Social Security can’t support its beneficiaries because workers become more productive over time"
Well, of course it doesn't mean SS can't support its beneficiaries. You can always support them by just soaking current workers for more. To say that the burden won't increase on the current worker because the current worker can be expected to produce more is pretty small comfort. That just means that workers can expect stagnant incomes.
#1 Posted by Brian Dell, CJR on Wed 14 Nov 2012 at 11:36 PM
"Why has the program been increasing the general deficit since the 2010 Obama-GOP tax deal if the FICA taxes are just insurance premiums?"
Two fold answer, one - republican obstruction won't support stimulus of any kind, even the kind they take credit for, unless it somehow starves the beast. Even with the economy sputtering after their 2000-2008 frat boy party, they can barely bring themselves to support this starve the beast stimulus because, unlike the bush tax cuts, the FICA reduction benefits the poors more than the rich.
Two - the program is going to take out of the general fund since Alan Greenspan and Ronald Reagan 'fixed' the programs premiums to contribute to the general fund to the tune of 2 trillion dollars (to offset the Reagan tax cuts for the rich). If you borrow twenty bucks from me on Monday and I ask you to buy me a five dollar sandwich on Wednesday, it takes a pretty lousy person to lecture me on on the cost of borrowing instead of just buying the sandwich and marking his tally down to fifteen owed.
"No, it isn't, because private sector pension plans are not "pay as you go." They invest in real assets, like property or the stock market, unlike Social Security."
Sorry, which type of pension plan are you talking about?
Because defined benefit plans, like social security, are one type of animal and defined contribution plans, like 401k's, are well...
http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=2F56BBA0-2AA6-11E2-825A-002128040CF6
Which is why we have to watch for democrat groups, like Simpson Bowles and the third way, who propose slowly shifting social security towards the defined contribution model.
"Then why are the number of people on these benefits soaring? See this story:"
Not a story, an op-ed by Robert Fricken Samuelson. (Really? him? What, was the heritage foundation too busy?)
DI costs have been going up because
a) baby boom people are getting older
b) women are doing harder work, getting similar workplace related conditions
c) disabled people have it tough getting gainful employment when times are good, since 2008 times haven't been good.
You'd be better off reading this:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3818
"Well, of course it doesn't mean SS can't support its beneficiaries."
Here's the thing people don't understand. Yes, the worker to retired ratio is swelling, but that is a temporary surge. After that, social security's costs stabilize and we can make small adjustments in funding to support beneficiaries at the required levels.
These adjustments should be happening at the top of the scale, by lifting the cap on payroll taxes and sticking a capital gains transaction tax, since - though Trudy's right in saying productivity of the worker has grown - the rewards of productivity have surged to the top and corporate where FICA was designed not to touch.
Therefore, there is a revenue problem which is very fixable. But there are people who are only interested in treating it as a spending problem because they don't like what the government is spending it upon.
We don't treat the military this way, we don't treat fiscal support for banks this way, we certainly don't ask questions about how badly tax cuts are going to hurt the generations of children to come, no this is how we treat social programs that support the most vulnerable.
And it's by how we treat the most vulnerable that we measure who we are as people.
#2 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 15 Nov 2012 at 02:39 PM
And if this old story of Marcus Stephens is any measure:
http://www.esquire.com/_mobile/features/era-big-government-marcus-stephen-0400
Americans, as a people, are pretty awful.
#3 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 15 Nov 2012 at 02:48 PM
"These adjustments should be happening at the top of the scale, by lifting the cap on payroll taxes and sticking a capital gains transaction tax, since - though Trudy's right in saying productivity of the worker has grown - the rewards of productivity have surged to the top and corporate where FICA was designed not to touch."
http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/11/16/mark-begichs-plan-to-stop-the-effects-of-inequality-on-social-security-finances/
"See, we have a payroll tax funding Social Security that gets capped at around $113,700 a year. That means that every dollar above that cap gets untaxed to pay for Social Security. When inequality widens, as it has, more and more compensation goes untaxed, draining the Social Security system of funds. Historically speaking, at least 90% of compensation gets captured by the Social Security system. Today that’s down to about 82%, the last I read.
So to the extent that Social Security needs to be fixed – and by “fixed” I don’t just mean brought into a 75-year balance, but made more adequate so less seniors slip into poverty – you need to raise that tax cap and capture more income. Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) has an excellent piece of legislation that would do just this."
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 16 Nov 2012 at 05:50 PM