The Republicans have put the gold standard (or at least a commission to study the idea) back in their party’s platform.
Paul Krugman writes about why this is nuts:
There is a remarkably widespread view that at least gold has had stable purchasing power. But nothing could be further from the truth…
So if we’d had a gold standard operating in this crisis, there would have been powerful deflationary forces at work; not exactly what the doctor ordered.
Now, the gold bugs will no doubt reply that under a gold standard big bubbles couldn’t happen, and therefore there wouldn’t be major financial crises. And it’s true: under the gold standard America had no major financial panics other than in 1873, 1884, 1890, 1893, 1907, 1930, 1931, 1932, and 1933. Oh, wait.
Mitt Romney surely knows this, at least.
— Naked Capitalism’s Yves Smith takes down that too big to fail apology op-ed in The New York Times by former JPMorgan Chase chairman William B. Harrison Jr.
Where Harrison writes this…
The first fallacy is that the emergence of large, universal banks — combining commercial banking with investment banking — was an artificial or unnatural development. In 1990, there were 15,000 banks in the United States; this fragmented market meant that banks could not achieve economies of scale or easily serve clients on a national or global level.
Smith says:
Guess what, sport fans? Bigger banks exhibit DISECONOMIES of scale. Every study of banking ever done show that banks have a slightly positive cost curve once a certain size threshold is passed. That means that costs rise as banks get bigger. One study found the break point to be $100 million in assets, most find it to be between $1 and $5 billion in assets; I’ve seen ones that put it at $10 billion. The sort of bank Harrison is defending is vastly above that size level; JP Morgan at year end 2011 had $2.3 trillion in assets…
As for “serving clients on a global scale,” big companies have long had numerous banking relationships, and take a “horses for courses” approach. The idea, say, that size would give JP Morgan an advantage in doing a merger in France is nuts. Major corporations typically make sure to have relationships with local banks in major countries in which they do business. While the major UK and US banks might snag some top local graduates, the native institutions are going to have a much bigger network of local contacts and expertise.
— The Atlantic’s Matthew O’Brien fires back at Niall Ferguson over his Newsweek mess:
The problem isn’t Ferguson’s conclusion, but how Ferguson reaches his conclusion. He either presents inaccurate facts or presents facts inaccurately. The result is a tendentious mess that just maintains a patina of factuality — all, of course, so Ferguson can create plausible deniability about his own dishonesty…
Is this nit-picking? Maybe. Ferguson gets some facts wrong. Ferguson gets some facts right, but frames them incompletely. Why the outrage? Because he’s treating facts as low-grade and cheap materials that are meant to be bent, spliced and morphed for the purpose of building a sensational polemic. Even more outrageous is that his bosses didn’t mind enough to force him to make an honest argument, or even profess embarrassment when its dishonesty came to light.
Let’s try a counterfactual. Say Ferguson hadn’t made his big errors about Obamacare. Then his smaller errors of omission would not seem quite so serious — or deliberate. But Ferguson did make his big errors. And he defends these omissions with more elisions. It makes it impossible not to read his entire piece as an effort to deceive.
Oh boy. More Gospel from the Keynesian mental giants.
"Now, the gold bugs will no doubt reply that under a gold standard big bubbles couldn’t happen, and therefore there wouldn’t be major financial crises. And it’s true: under the gold standard America had no major financial panics other than in 1873, 1884, 1890, 1893, 1907, 1930, 1931, 1932, and 1933. Oh, wait. -Paul Krugman
Professor K isn't always a shill. Some times he's an idiot. Here are some facts to which he is allergic:
-- The U.S. was off the gold standard in 1873.
-- Preceding every "crises" listed by Krugman, the U.S. govt artificially (fraudulently) expanded credit, which artificially (fraudulently) secured the practice of fractional-reserve (fraudulent) banking. This is at the heart of the "bubbles," then and now.
"There is a remarkably widespread view that at least gold has had stable purchasing power. But nothing could be further from the truth..." -Paul Krugman
Hmm...
-- In both 1912 and 2012, an ounce of gold could buy about the same quantity of the same quality of goods.
-- In 2012, one paper dollar buys less than what $.05 bought in 1912.
Yet, the Keynesian mental giants just know that the REAL danger to the common man has been DEflation.
(For further demolition of this Keynesian fantasy-fraud, see this cursory smack-down and this well sourced document, wherein you will note that "from 1879–1889, while prices kept falling, wages rose 23 percent. So real wages, after taking inflation—or the lack of it—into effect, soared." Oh, and a tip for Krugman-cult journalists: next time you go to polish Krugman's apple, steer clear of his more ridiculous straw men, like: "Now, the gold bugs will no doubt reply that under a gold standard big bubbles couldn’t happen, and therefore there wouldn’t be major financial crises.")
#1 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Tue 28 Aug 2012 at 10:05 AM
Dan -- You seem to be supporting Dr. Krugram's point that a gold standard didn't prevent bubbles, esp. if it was govt. borrowing. And your clever little comparison of 1912 and 2012 implies that gold didn't drop to a huge low for decades after the 1980s but magically retained the same value, when any reader of the chart on Krugman's story can see that it did lose a great deal of value, and stayed down for a long, long time. Try again to cherry pick something that makes your point.
#2 Posted by Brian O'Connor, CJR on Tue 28 Aug 2012 at 11:40 AM
Furthermore, to be clear, yes "The U.S. was off the gold standard in 1873." but for all those other years it was on from 1879 to 1933.
http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard
And the heart of all bubbles is not fractional reserve banking and the evil us government.
Come on.
#3 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 28 Aug 2012 at 02:06 PM
Brian, it's PURCHASING POWER, not nominal value. Do pay attention, Mr. Ironic Cherry-Picker-Labeling Guy. Krugman is clearly wrong here. And I am calling Kruggy's BS on the bubble/crises STRAW MAN. Of course bubbles and crises can happen in gold-standard times, via govt intervention. Kruggy's straw man is particularly fraudulent. He simply can not name those fantastical pro-gold economists who'd claim that bubbles and crises can not occur during gold-standard times.
Thimbles, this is one of your weakest entries: "Furthermore, to be clear, yes 'The U.S. was off the gold standard in 1873.' but for all those other years it was on from 1879 to 1933."
So, is Krugman being (1) disingenuous or (2) absent-minded on the 1873/gold standard implication?
"And the heart of all bubbles is not fractional reserve banking and the evil us government. Come on."
Nice try, but you DO realize that my actual words appear two entries above yours, right? It's anti-free market intervention by the govt and its enabling central bank: credit-expansion, fractional-reserve banking standard, govt-guarantees, and on.
#4 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Tue 28 Aug 2012 at 11:01 PM
Cast your eyes wider afield, Dan. Tell us about deflation and the 'Gold Bloc' in Europe after the US and UK left gold in '33.
That was a disaster for workers and democracy.
And the great deflation of the Long 19th Century can be (and has been, by, for example, Mike Davis in "Late Victorian Holocausts") blamed for the deaths of some tens of millions of people (even in places like India that were on silver at the time).
(If I ever encounter a present-day gold bug who knows anything about global price fluctuations, he will be the first.)
#5 Posted by Harry Eagar, CJR on Wed 29 Aug 2012 at 02:44 PM
"So, is Krugman being (1) disingenuous or (2) absent-minded on the 1873/gold standard implication?"
Doesn't matter to me, he's human. When he's right, he's right and vice versa. He was wrong on one year of a set. The impression you left to the uninformed was that he was wrong on the whole set. Not saying it was intentional, but the misimpression needed correction.
And as for the heart of bubbles, what is required for a bubble is a perception of value and future return by the market that isn't supported by reality. This power of the perception takes over the behavior of individual actors who are doing long-term irrational things for short-term rational reasons (my apologies for bringing 'Will MacAvoy' into a serious discussion). And when the ignored reality then overtakes the perception, this leads to a sudden collapse of value as short-term irrational behavior "SELL EVERYTHING! MY STOCK IS GOING WORTHLESS! ACK! ANOTHER MARGIN CALL!" prevents long-term rational action.
Bubbles are a creation of market failures, not a government ones.
And even if we hold what you say is true, that "Preceding every "crises" listed by Krugman, the U.S. govt artificially (fraudulently) expanded credit, which artificially (fraudulently) secured the practice of fractional-reserve (fraudulent) banking," if the gold standard wasn't good enough to prevent that, then what is the point of it again?
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 29 Aug 2012 at 03:11 PM
There wouldn't be any bubbles in the early years of a gold standard, that's for sure.
The deflation would create a liquidity trap that would ruin overnight nearly every creditor. Even the ones who would be solvent on paper.
#7 Posted by Harry Eagar, CJR on Thu 30 Aug 2012 at 12:40 AM
Harry Eagar, thanks for making my point. Your historical scenario (though incorrectly interpreted) shows how govt intervention hurt the common man.
Thimbles, okay. He was absent-minded, at best. But you're being deceitful to say my SINGULAR, BULLETED point about 1873 mislead the "uninformed."
And individual private actors do not have the indomitable legal power to make trillions of dollars worth of paper money and loan guarantees and GET AWAY WITH IT, or to arbitrarily set interest rates, etc.; all of which lead to the malinvestment you mentioned. Only State actors — Treasury, central bank, politicians, and politically-protected firms — have that power.
Also, a pseudo-centralized, highly interventionist economy is not a market economy — certainly not a FREE-market. Please get these fundamentals right prior to engaging in serious discussion.
#8 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Thu 30 Aug 2012 at 04:11 AM
You don't know who was in the 'Gold Bloc' was, do you, Dan?
And during the Long 19th Century, there wasn't a lot of government intervention in markets. Nor in social safety nets, either, which is why the gold standard murdered something on the order of 100,000,000 people.
#9 Posted by Harry Eagar, CJR on Thu 30 Aug 2012 at 02:12 PM