Barron’s was one of the few outlets that really took a look at what was at stake here, and June 20, parsed the interests of the various parties to the debate:
[T]he guiding principle of federal regulation in this area is that if the examiner thinks the bank has good procedures in place, he will permit the bank to create its own valuations and stress tests for derivatives. Which necessarily leaves the danger that someone who talks a good game may get carte blanche, and the banks can pay talkers more than 10 times what the government can play listeners.
Moreover—let’s face it—on the political-appointee level, bank regulators tend to be people who believe that bankers know what they’re doing. Alan Greenspan himself, while in private practice, once certified that Charlie Keating and his crew were ‘seasoned and expert,’ and that under their leadership Lincoln Savings & Loan had become ‘vibrant and healthy … a financially strong institution that presents no foreseeable risk to the Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corp.’
The piece concluded:
Until the regulators or the accountants get their act together, readers of financial statements from big bank holding companies would be wise to equip themselves with a magnifying glass to read the fine print, and a salt-shaker to sprinkle on both the balance sheet and the income statement.
This analysis makes complete sense. So why was Barron’s one of the few voices in the wilderness?
That such insight was rare meant that the GAO was reduced to repeating itself over and over, like a drunk on the street corner. Here is the GAO, as described by Dow Jones June 23, more than a month after the report came out:
A General Accounting Office official said Congress should require federal oversight of all major over-the-counter derivatives dealers to ensure the system’s safety and soundness.
In testimony before the House Banking Committee, Charles A. Bowsher, Comptroller General, said there is an ‘immediate need’ for Congress to bring currently unregulated derivatives activities of securities and insurance companies under the eye of federal regulators.
‘Given the gaps and weakness that impede regulatory preparedness for dealing with a financial crisis associated with derivatives, we recommend that Congress require federal regulation of the safety and soundness of all major U.S. OTC derivatives dealers,’ Bowsher said in his prepared remarks.
Echoing the concerns cited in a report his agency released last month, Bowsher said that the sudden failure or abrupt withdrawal from trading of any of the large derivatives dealers could cause liquidity problems in the markets and pose risks to federally insured banks and the financial system as a whole.
Woe to the prophet in his own land. And this despite the fact that derivatives estimates, according to the WSJ on August 25, 1994, were already ballooning:
By Wall Street Journal estimates, the world’s derivatives markets are far larger than most people realize and far exceed the latest assessment published by the General Accounting Office.
Total derivatives outstanding currently top $35 trillion, roughly twice the congressional agency’s estimate for year-end 1992. The numbers are based on the value of the stocks, bonds, currencies and money-market instruments that underlie these arrangements and determine their worth—measures known as open interest or ‘notional’ value. Unlike the situation in securities transactions, little or no money changes hands when most derivatives trades are initiated.
Nonetheless, coverage of the GAO report continued its anti-regulatory skew, until it tapered off to a tiny trickle—and most of that in economics journals or industry trade publications.
The issue of derivatives would come up again and again—the GAO itself put out a follow-up report in 1996, and derivatives got broader attention in 1998 when Long-Term Capital Management failed and in 2001 with the collapse of Enron—but as response to this GAO report makes clear, merely raising the issue is not necessarily much better than ignoring it.
That we are not asking the impossible is clear from two excellent derivatives stories that swim against the tide of coverage. One was a Fortune story that came out before the GAO report, and the other was a Washington Monthly piece that came out in the report’s wake.

Excellent work. I didn't know these reports existed. Thanks for unearthing them. Now, I wonder, what are these people who got it right 15 years ago saying now?
#1 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 05:51 PM
i just started this story but right off the bat it seems the gao is constantly on point, how are they able to do such good work when it seems every one else in government cannot?
#2 Posted by ian, CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 09:57 PM
i just started this story but right off the bat it seems the gao is constantly on point, how are they able to do such good work when it seems every one else in government cannot?
#3 Posted by ian, CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 09:58 PM
my second thought, still on page one, is what other reports are collecting dust at gao?
#4 Posted by ian, CJR on Wed 11 Mar 2009 at 09:06 AM
Hell of a post, Elinore.
#5 Posted by 9brandon, CJR on Wed 11 Mar 2009 at 10:58 AM
Sure, it's all good to know. But this is hindsight. Why was no red flag raised by the Columbia Journalism Review when this report was initially published? With all the other media outlets? Excellence in journalism seems to be lumped in with sound bites and who has the loudest, sharpest bark. Not at all the one with wisdom and leadership in his mind and heart. There are also less and less voices out there. I do not know how this scenario will end, but am concerned about it..
#6 Posted by Maria, CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 11:10 AM
I checked the NYTimes archive for stories citing Buffet's derivatives-as-WMD remark. Other than reporting Greenspan's quick pooh-pooh, there was essentially nothing between the remark itself (March 2003) and the beginning of the MBS/derivatives crash (Fall 2007).
So, where was the NYTimes? Why did no reporter/columnist/feature writer pick up on a dramatic warning by America's most prestigious financier/investor for 3.5 years and ask -- hey, what the heck does he mean?
#7 Posted by David Lewis, CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 11:19 AM
Maria, I had it in November of 1999. Here is an alternet reprint from the spring of 2000. The Hartford Advocate didn't (and doesn't) have much reach though. Sorry.
http://www.alternet.org/story/658/one_bank_under_god/
#8 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 12:41 PM
As the one who directed the 1994 and 1996 GAO reports, I can give you an earful about what is going on now. Perhaps Columbia could invite Alan Greemspan and me up for a symposium where we could continue our debate.
#9 Posted by James Bothwell, CJR on Wed 18 Mar 2009 at 02:51 PM
Mr. Bothwell, I read this story and your comment and would really appreciate corresponding with you.
friedlandjt@yahoo.com
#10 Posted by Joel Friedland, CJR on Thu 26 Mar 2009 at 04:25 PM
Every now and then I sit down to focus my efforts on continuing to see and chart just how far down the rabbit hole goes. I've given up tennis. This is my new pastime.
I awoke this morning with refreshed vigor to be rewarded with knowledge of Brooksley Born, knowledge which was new to me. More digging led me to the work of James Bothwell.
I, too, often wonder about where are the people with firsthand knowledge who counter mainstream speak at the time events are in the making rather than years later.
I've been putting together a list of names of go-to people who have the insight and experience for getting right to the chase, obviating the need to recognize the existence of even the least-tainted mainstream voice. Born and Bothwell have been add to that list.
If there is a "red-pill" mailing list of any kind, please add me (esantoro AT waldenbags.com).
In these trying times, it is good to know that there are a hell of a lot of great Americans. These people are so busy doing the real work that it takes years to find out just who they are.
Thank you, James Bothwell, for the work you do.
#11 Posted by Ed Santoro, CJR on Sun 18 Oct 2009 at 03:01 PM
Ed,
For more from us on this, see our Audit Interview with James Bothwell from July.
#12 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Sun 18 Oct 2009 at 03:53 PM
Thanks, Ryan. Read it and filed it. Now I'm on to Russ Baker's "Family of Secrets." Nothing turns up in CJR search for "Russ Baker." We need to change that.
It's time for a new set of those Friendly Dictator Trading Cards, but this time it's not the usual suspects--no, sir!
-- Rock the Pequod
#13 Posted by Ed Santoro, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 01:38 PM
When a 10% default in derivatives market is equal to the worlds GDP ...Houston we have a problem
#14 Posted by otcnuclear, CJR on Sun 6 Jun 2010 at 05:42 PM