The stories are the products of hard work and curious minds: in Fortune Carol Loomis and in Washington Monthly Byron L. Dorgan (the Democratic Senator from North Dakota who also, as the NYT’s David Leonhardt noted last year, was one of the few voices raised against the repeal of Glass-Steagall). But the writers also had the privilege of cover stories with a lot of space, so the publications themselves deserve considerable credit as well.
The two stories are quite different but equally useful, especially read in concert. Fortune takes a more technical view of the situation, explaining in detail how derivatives work. Washington Monthly gives more of a layman’s account and focuses on the big picture. Neither story minces words.
Fortune’s Loomis offers warnings like:
Most chillingly, derivatives hold the possibility of systemic risk—the danger that these contracts might directly or indirectly cause some localized or particularized trouble in the financial markets to spread uncontrollably. An imaginable scenario is some deep crisis at a major dealer that would cause it to default on its contracts and be the instigator of a chain reaction bringing down other institutions and sending paroxysms of fear through a financial market that lives on the expectation of prompt payments. Inevitably, that would put deposit-insurance funds, and the taxpayers behind them, at risk.
And the magazine itself gives this prescient comment in an editorial:
The vast swelling of the so-called financial derivatives market to trillions of dollars has given investor after investor, not to mention lawmakers and corporate executives, a touch of that shiver. Some fear that this may be more than just a benign shifting of tectonic plates, but perhaps a precursor of the financial equivalent of the Big One.
Washington Monthly hits the right note immediately by mentioning the Fortune story up top—after all, big issues like derivatives can only be sufficiently covered by multiple stories, one building on the other—and then hits its stride a few paragraphs in:
Yet, this ‘false alarm’ could turn out to be a harbinger of a real financial conflagration—one that would make us nostalgic for the days of the $500 billion savings-and-loan collapse.
And about the chances of broader economic collapse, Washington Monthly makes a point so simple it seems almost self-evident, and yet virtually no one else in the press made it:
If this seems a remote possibility, don’t forget that financial implosions nearly always seem that way—before they happen.
That’s right. And all it takes is that one simple insight to undercut voice after voice saying how unlikely collapse was.
We add a related point: One of the reasons we don’t see economic collapse coming is that we would prefer to see ourselves as on track, rather than spinning wildly out into the ether. To that end we, perhaps understandably, sometimes fit the facts to our sensibility, rather than the other way around. But one job of the press is to be better seers than everyone else, less willing to be lulled into false contentment.
The Washington Monthly piece is so painfully on target, we can’t help but offer a few more choice quotes. First:
All that stands between the public and a financial disaster of this sort is the guardians of the banking system in Washington. Regrettably, they are outgunned by the derivatives dealers in several ways.
And then some thoughts on the press that echo our own:
[A]lthough some members of Congress are awake to the derivatives problem, it takes more than that to reach a critical mass.
That’s where the press comes in—or should. But except for a few pieces, the national press has been cowed by the complexity of the subject. Instead of inquisitive reporting, we get reports of assurances from Greenspan and others.
Yes! That is exactly right.
And why any fair analysis of how we got here must involve some serious soul searching on the part of the press.

Excellent work. I didn't know these reports existed. Thanks for unearthing them. Now, I wonder, what are these people who got it right 15 years ago saying now?
#1 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 05:51 PM
i just started this story but right off the bat it seems the gao is constantly on point, how are they able to do such good work when it seems every one else in government cannot?
#2 Posted by ian, CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 09:57 PM
i just started this story but right off the bat it seems the gao is constantly on point, how are they able to do such good work when it seems every one else in government cannot?
#3 Posted by ian, CJR on Tue 10 Mar 2009 at 09:58 PM
my second thought, still on page one, is what other reports are collecting dust at gao?
#4 Posted by ian, CJR on Wed 11 Mar 2009 at 09:06 AM
Hell of a post, Elinore.
#5 Posted by 9brandon, CJR on Wed 11 Mar 2009 at 10:58 AM
Sure, it's all good to know. But this is hindsight. Why was no red flag raised by the Columbia Journalism Review when this report was initially published? With all the other media outlets? Excellence in journalism seems to be lumped in with sound bites and who has the loudest, sharpest bark. Not at all the one with wisdom and leadership in his mind and heart. There are also less and less voices out there. I do not know how this scenario will end, but am concerned about it..
#6 Posted by Maria, CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 11:10 AM
I checked the NYTimes archive for stories citing Buffet's derivatives-as-WMD remark. Other than reporting Greenspan's quick pooh-pooh, there was essentially nothing between the remark itself (March 2003) and the beginning of the MBS/derivatives crash (Fall 2007).
So, where was the NYTimes? Why did no reporter/columnist/feature writer pick up on a dramatic warning by America's most prestigious financier/investor for 3.5 years and ask -- hey, what the heck does he mean?
#7 Posted by David Lewis, CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 11:19 AM
Maria, I had it in November of 1999. Here is an alternet reprint from the spring of 2000. The Hartford Advocate didn't (and doesn't) have much reach though. Sorry.
http://www.alternet.org/story/658/one_bank_under_god/
#8 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Mon 16 Mar 2009 at 12:41 PM
As the one who directed the 1994 and 1996 GAO reports, I can give you an earful about what is going on now. Perhaps Columbia could invite Alan Greemspan and me up for a symposium where we could continue our debate.
#9 Posted by James Bothwell, CJR on Wed 18 Mar 2009 at 02:51 PM
Mr. Bothwell, I read this story and your comment and would really appreciate corresponding with you.
friedlandjt@yahoo.com
#10 Posted by Joel Friedland, CJR on Thu 26 Mar 2009 at 04:25 PM
Every now and then I sit down to focus my efforts on continuing to see and chart just how far down the rabbit hole goes. I've given up tennis. This is my new pastime.
I awoke this morning with refreshed vigor to be rewarded with knowledge of Brooksley Born, knowledge which was new to me. More digging led me to the work of James Bothwell.
I, too, often wonder about where are the people with firsthand knowledge who counter mainstream speak at the time events are in the making rather than years later.
I've been putting together a list of names of go-to people who have the insight and experience for getting right to the chase, obviating the need to recognize the existence of even the least-tainted mainstream voice. Born and Bothwell have been add to that list.
If there is a "red-pill" mailing list of any kind, please add me (esantoro AT waldenbags.com).
In these trying times, it is good to know that there are a hell of a lot of great Americans. These people are so busy doing the real work that it takes years to find out just who they are.
Thank you, James Bothwell, for the work you do.
#11 Posted by Ed Santoro, CJR on Sun 18 Oct 2009 at 03:01 PM
Ed,
For more from us on this, see our Audit Interview with James Bothwell from July.
#12 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Sun 18 Oct 2009 at 03:53 PM
Thanks, Ryan. Read it and filed it. Now I'm on to Russ Baker's "Family of Secrets." Nothing turns up in CJR search for "Russ Baker." We need to change that.
It's time for a new set of those Friendly Dictator Trading Cards, but this time it's not the usual suspects--no, sir!
-- Rock the Pequod
#13 Posted by Ed Santoro, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 01:38 PM
When a 10% default in derivatives market is equal to the worlds GDP ...Houston we have a problem
#14 Posted by otcnuclear, CJR on Sun 6 Jun 2010 at 05:42 PM