Commenter James asked me to take a look at a couple of verdicts from PolitiFact on the State of the Union and the Republican response. He disagrees with their verdicts. Let’s take a look.
PolitiFact gave Representative Paul Ryan, who delivered the Republican response, a full “True” rating for his statement that “The debt will soon eclipse our entire economy.” James reckons that PolitiFact is relying on an inflated measure of the debt rather than what is really owed.
I agree with PolitiFact, though. In some cases, what’s known as gross federal debt isn’t relevant. But I think it is here because it takes into account the money owed to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds—money that has been borrowed by the government to subsidize deficit spending for three decades.
The government owes that money to pensioners, and the money to repay that will have to come from somewhere: either via new taxes or by cuts to programs (unless we get some supercharged economic growth).
If I pledge to pay for my girls’ college eighteen years from now, it doesn’t necessarily have any immediate budgetary impact on me. But it should, unless I want to face a crisis down the line. And I’ll have something of a “political” problem on my hands if I break my promise to my kids. So that’s a liability I have to pay for sooner or later. Same goes for the trust funds.
The irony here is that it’s usually conservatives who claim that the Social Security Trust Fund doesn’t really exist. They sure want to count it to help their case for slashing government spending.
Frontline put it this way in a similar discussion:
But if the publicly held debt represents the impact of government borrowing on the current economy, then intra-governmental debt represents the future promises we have made. Due to the retirement of the baby boomers and rising health care costs, under some projections Medicare and Social Security will run out of money. If this happens, the trust funds for those programs will have to start cashing in those I.O.U.s, and to pay them the government will need to borrow more from the public. Or it could raise taxes to cover the shortfall, or it could make cuts to the programs to make them less expensive. If our future economy grows more robustly than expected, it will be easier to pay for these commitments, but the intragovernmental debt is not simply going to evaporate.
Viewers are entitled to know that the country faces both an immediate and a long-term debt challenge. If we were not as clear as we should have been about this distinction in our broadcast, we nonetheless stand by our decision to highlight what we consider to be the true dimensions of the problem by using the gross debt figure of $10 trillion — now more than $11 trillion — and counting.
And The Nation’s William Greider said this to our Trudy Lieberman last month:
There are simple facts that should be reported: 1) Social Security never contributed a dime to the deficit; 2) Social Security softened the impact of the Reagan deficits by building up a surplus; 3) the federal government borrowed the money and spent it on other things; 4) the federal government has to pay this money back because it really belongs to the working people who paid their FICA deductions every pay day. The elites in both parties know the day is approaching when the federal government has to come up with the trillions it borrowed from the workers.
But James also points out that PolitiFact only gave President Obama a “Half True” for his statement that “We are living with a legacy of deficit-spending that began almost a decade ago,” and PolitiFact does indeed go too far there.
Here’s what they say:
His comment had a partisan undertone. By saying deficit spending began almost a decade ago, he is referring to the presidency of George W. Bush. We wanted to review the history of deficit spending and put Obama’s statement in a bit of perspective…
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@Ryan,
Thanks. I really do appreciate your responding to my plea. I take back every mean comment I've ever said or thought to say about you.
My objection to Paul Ryan and Politifact's rating was the "“The debt will soon eclipse our entire economy.” seemed to be, as Politifact acknowledged, way overblown. What is "soon"? And "eclipse"? The "ENTIRE" economy? I'm shaking in my boots!
Politifact:
"We'll also note that these numbers could change over the course of the next two years, depending on economic conditions and policy choices. Still, we considered Boehner's statistics valid, and Ryan's formulation is equally solid. So we rate his statement True."
But fair enough, if you say it's worth a True, that's good enough for me.
In addition, Rep. Ryan said
"Just take a look at what’s happening to Greece, Ireland, the United Kingdom and other nations in Europe. They didn’t act soon enough; and now their governments have been forced to impose painful austerity measures: large benefit cuts to seniors and huge tax increases on everybody."
This is a statement that Politifact didn't bother to evaluate. Paul Krugman points how embarrassingly wrong Ryan was here and here.
Nevertheless, I understand you don't want to get into a war with Politifact, and I'm very grateful for your response.
#1 Posted by James, CJR on Thu 27 Jan 2011 at 12:16 PM
Fantastic work.
It is so common for journalists to point and scream "Look at the piles of negative money!" without putting it in context or attributing due accountability (unintentional pun). It takes time and effort to marshal the evidence that things are not what they are commonly reported to be.
Thank you for taking that time.
And furthermore, I'd like to add that when healthcare costs in the US align with healthcare costs everywhere else in the industrialized world,
http://blogs.ngm.com/blog_central/2009/12/the-cost-of-care.html
most of the looming public deficit problem will vanish. Furthermore, if the way the government borrows affects the cost as how the government borrows. The government owes trillions to social security, but it only has to pay the operating costs of the program for all that money.
That's a good deal (were it being used to pay for things other than stupid tax cuts for the rich).
The federal reserve is lending TRILLIONS in low to no interest loans to the biggest banks in order to keep them alive. The federal reserve can do the same for the federal government, reducing the cost of borrowing when compared to the international credit market. Japan's debt long eclipsed its GDP, but Japan pays less interest and maintains its standards as a wealthy country in spite of being a low domestic resource, high export, economy in a time when exports are highly competitive.
http://www.bostonreview.net/BR35.6/baker.php
Debt isn't that big a deal when it's used responsibly, borrowed wisely (during times of low interest - for instance), and produces value and future growth.
What is a big deal is letting your economy deflate because workers have no job security, businesses have no customers, states have no tax revenues, and money has no circulation. The economy needs to produce, but it can't produce without demand and demand is suppressed when a financial crisis occurs and personal future prospects look bleak.
If the government doesn't step in then and create demand, then you have a great big depressing problem.
Thimbles - Conservatives have no answers when private demand collapses because they have nothing to offer but tax cuts.
Thimble's Truth-o-meter....: TRUE
#2 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 27 Jan 2011 at 09:15 PM
James, not sure why you think we'd be afraid of PolitiFact. We criticize everybody.
#3 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Fri 28 Jan 2011 at 03:04 PM
@Ryan
"Afraid" might be overstated. And CJR has occasionally criticized Politifact, you're right. They are supposed to be one of the "good guys" and they are really full of themselves after winning their Pulitzer. They did an outstanding job fact-checking the 2008 presidential campaign. But as I have documented on another thread,, they have a very distinct anti-Democratic bias in their selection of "facts" to check, and the way they "award" their ratings, putting a heavy thumb on their scale against the Dems. The great analysis you've done on this thread is only the latest example.
“The debt will soon eclipse our entire economy.”
In view of the graph you presented here, do you still rate this statement True?
#4 Posted by James, CJR on Sun 30 Jan 2011 at 09:08 AM
If you're going to excuse Obama for the recession he inherited from Bush, then it seems you have to excuse Bush for the recession he inherited from Clinton. And we all know the CBO's projection of surpluses was a fantasy number; that money was going to get spent one way or another.
More to the point, the tax cuts and the wars have all been ratified by Obama now, so it's fair to call it a "half truth" when he says "we've been living with them for a decade, since we're also going to be living with them for some time much longer, due to choices he has made.
#5 Posted by Tom T., CJR on Mon 31 Jan 2011 at 12:54 AM
So you agree that the Bush approach was inexcusable and that Obama, by being at fault for continuing in the path of the Bush approach, should have made much more progressive choices.
Good to have you on board.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 31 Jan 2011 at 01:00 AM