The New York Times’s David Leonhardt has a smart column this morning on the administration’s skewed spending priorities. By spelling out why they’re skewed, he gives some insight into what’s wrong with the economy more broadly.
Specifically, he looks at what’s wrong with the Obama administration’s recent proposal to send everybody on Social Security a $250 check next year. Boy, I’d hate to see his inbox today. There’s a reason they call it the “third rail.”
It’s not hard to see the Obama move as a cynical ploy to placate the old folks who have been perhaps the biggest threat to the administration’s health-care reform.
But as Leonhardt points out, those over 65 have done better than younger families, most of which are still in the workforce.
The real median income of over-65 households rose 3 percent from 2000 to 2008. For households headed by somebody age 25 to 44, it fell about 7 percent.
That last number goes a long way toward understanding why the country finds itself in so much debt. I mean think about it: The average household in that huge younger age group had a real 7 percent pay cut during those eight years, despite what Larry Kudlow and the like called the “Goldilocks Economy” of low interest rates, low inflation, and good GDP growth.
As Leonhardt notes, even though Social Security recipients (not all of whom, it should have been noted, are old) aren’t getting a cost-of-living adjustment this year, they’re still coming out ahead because we’re in the midst of deflation. Prices are down 2.1 percent in the last year, he reports, which of course is an effective 2.1 percent raise if you’re getting the same amount of money.
This is a concept that needs to be explained to people, something I think the press has not done a good job of doing.
It has also not done a good job reporting on the simple, obvious fact that we’re in deflation—despite the government’s best efforts to reinflate a bubble—and the implications of that. We’ve heard seemingly forever dark warnings in the press about the perils of deflation. Now that we’re in it, it would be great to see some more reporting on it.
Meanwhile, the fact is something’s going to have be done to entitlements at some point soon, whether it’s raising payroll taxes or cutting benefits or both. But:
“If the long-term issue is entitlement reform,” says Joel Slemrod, a University of Michigan economist, “the fact that the political system cannot say no to $250 checks to elderly people is a bad sign.”

I'm living in Los Angeles on a fixed income. My primary expenses are food, rent and utilities, none of which have dropped 2.1% during the past year. I don't know what is driving the drop in the cost of living index but I'm guessing that a lot of it comes from declines in prices for big ticket items that simply aren't on the radar of people in my situation. Chittum's criticisms of the financial press are well taken, but in this instance they're perhaps applicable to him as well. A drop in the cost of living index doesn't necessarily translate into a drop in the actual cost of living.
#1 Posted by Kevin F, CJR on Wed 28 Oct 2009 at 09:25 PM
The $250 is to offset the increases in Medicare premiums, which are indeed going up. It has NOTHING to do with what is happening to the CPI. Did Leonhardt's editors cut this from his report, or did he not bother to ask the original sponsors of the bill (who sold the bill on this very point)?
#2 Posted by Benedict@Large, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 01:03 AM
Dean Baker criticizes the exact same piece. I think his point about loss of wealth due to decline in asset value makes a lot of sense:
First, he argues that the elderly have suffered less from the downturn from other groups be comparing declines in income and employment. This is actually a much tougher question that Leonhardt implies. The elderly have accumulated assets over their working lifetime. These assets plunged in value with the collapse of the housing bubble and the plunge in stock prices. This plunge has hit the elderly far more than other groups because they were in a position to have assets. So, if we took a wealth-based measure of impact, we would find that the wealthy were hit hardest by the downturn. (Asset prices were propped up by the bubble, but we can hardly blame the elderly for not being any better in recognizing the bubble than Alan Greenspan and the reporters at major media outlets.)
Just wanted to share a different take on this.
#3 Posted by End The Echo, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 10:50 AM
Kevin, I don't know about house rents, but apartment rents fell 4 percent in LA last year. I'm sure they're down again this year. Food prices nationally in September were down 0.2 percent from a year ago (home-cooked food was down 2.5 percent), according to the BLS (which says overall prices down 1.3 percent. Energy services—gas and electricity—down 8 percent.
I think this sort of proves my point re deflation reporting and the press.
Benedict, the point is whether that $14 billion is being spent correctly, all things considered. We've all got increasing health-care costs. My group health-care premiums, for instance, are going up 30 percent for 2010 (200 percent if you want to include the new costs we're incurring because of impending children).
The Medicare premium increase is 15 percent and affects just 1/4 of all recipients. The other 73 percent get no increase and Congress is considering freezing the whole thing.
#4 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 11:12 AM
Many thanks, End the Echo. I hadn't seen that.
#5 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Thu 29 Oct 2009 at 01:07 PM