In March, the Obama administration implemented a trade agreement with South Korea that it promised, implausibly, would create tens of thousands of jobs to the U.S.
While we’ve had just two monthly trade reports since the agreement went into effect, they’re not looking good for the home team, as David Cay Johnston of Reuters is sharp to point out. In April and May, the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea soared 63 percent from 2011. In May, U.S. exports to Korea dropped 11 percent while imports rose 5 percent. There has been virtually no other American press coverage of the increased trade deficit since KORUS went into effect. It’s early, of course, but the press should be keeping a close eye on this story.
Good for Reuters for doing so. Johnston travelsto Seoul to explore just why President Obama signed the KORUS agreement and what it’s likely to mean for American workers. He’s not optimistic, and with good reason, pointing to the history of failed jobs projections from the so-called free-trade side, as well as common sense issues like that selling American cars in Korea is about as likely as selling Korean cars in Detroit:
In Seoul, local people told me that buying an American-made car risked opprobrium from employers and neighbors.
In three days in Seoul, as the video accompanying this column shows, I found very few American-made cars. Three, on a showroom floor, were Toyotas built in Ohio. On the streets, I counted a half dozen Chrysler vans, a similar number of Ford sedans and one Jeep but not a single American luxury car. I also saw a smattering of cars with Chevrolet nameplates, but they were built locally by the old Daewoo, now called GM Korea.
Recall that Rust Belt debate in the 2008 primaries when Obama said he had opposed NAFTA from the beginning and would renegotiate it if elected: “I think we should use the hammer of a potential opt-out as leverage.”
It emerged a week later that his top economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, had recently winked and nodded at concerned Canadian officials in private, letting them know that Obama was just foolin’—that his promises were, in the words of a leaked Canadian memo, “more reflective of political maneuvering than policy.” In other words, he was misleading voters about his true intentions regarding critical trade policies.
Three months into his administration, Obama confirmed he would not reopen NAFTA to make it fairer to the U.S., which has seen its $5 billion trade surplus with Mexico turn into a $54 billion deficit last year (about $20 billion of that is from oil and other energy products).
This is far from the president’s first flip flop on trade. In 2008, he attacked George W. Bush’s China trade policies and promised to “be better bargainers and say look, here’s the bottom line, you guys keep on manipulating your currency, we are going to start shutting off access to some of our markets.” By keeping its currency artificially weak, China makes its exports cheaper and protects itself from American imports. That policy helped boost our China trade deficit to $282 billion last year.
Since taking office and despite his tough Campaign 2008 talk, Obama has repeatedly refused to label China a currency manipulator. When Mitt Romney said in June that he would label China a manipulator if elected, Obama’s campaign had the gall to say that “Threatening to label China a currency manipulator is reckless and unnecessary” and called Romney’s position a “campaign-year conversion,” according to the Associated Press.
It surely is a campaign conversion, but what’s worse is the post-election reversion—when the campaign promise turns out to be a cynical and unfulfilled pledge. The AP whiffed on Obama’s hypocrisy, which is a big miss. It was only four years ago, guys.
Now the administration’s Korea policy is showing early signs that it will follow NAFTA in widening trade deficits. Up next is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is being negotiated in secret and which looks set to break more Obama campaign promises.
The early returns on KORUS ought to be worth a story or ten, don’t you think? Good for Johnston and Reuters for pointing them out.
Samsung has plenty of ad dollars to direct.
If pols are lying, and experience has shown this is broadly true, why even pretend that their populist pandering has any significance as anything but that? Bloody Pravda...
#1 Posted by Jonathan, CJR on Wed 8 Aug 2012 at 11:22 AM
Noah Body must not have read my column or watched the video before he posted. Writing that facts are not presented when they are right in front of you is never a good idea, but especially so at a journalism review website.
Had Noah Body read and watched so he would know that S. Korean brand vehicles have more than 90% of the S. Korean market, 9% of the US market, while American-made US brands are a fraction of one percent in S. Korea. And he wuld have read that the "foreign cars I spotted most often were Mercedes-Benz, BMWs and Bentleys, brands that seem to resonate more strongly with South Koreans eager to display their affluence."
#2 Posted by David Cay Johnston, CJR on Thu 9 Aug 2012 at 08:10 AM
Dear Mr. Johnston:
Thank you for the response (even though the powers-that-be thought they should delete my original post, for whatever reason). And, yes, I was responding to Ryan's article without reading yours when I made my original post -- for that, I apologize. However, I still think you are missing the main points of my criticism of your article.
Yes, of course the Korean market is still dominated by local manufacturers: that is true of much of the Korean economy. But when Korea changes, it does so with surprising suddenness, and there are many signs that domestic auto dominance in Korea is declining significantly, with premium foreign car sales in Korea doubling over the past three years:
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/04/17/2012041701296.html
Ten years ago, it was very hard to find foreign cars on the streets of Seoul and there was a lot of social pressure against having one. But Korea constantly and quickly changes. I have been traveling to Korea since the mid-1990s and seen the change with my own eyes (plus there are some useful numbers in that story I linked to). Public opinion is certainly less xenophobic about imports than it used to be, in a wide range of sectors. Apple, for example, went from zero presence in Korea to being huge in just a couple of years.
Certainly Korean opinions of the United States, as ambivalent as they may be, are much more positive than their view of the Japanese, and yet Japanese car companies have significantly increased their exports to Korea. Engaging with South Korea and opening markets is good for the US because it gives them a much better chance is getting in on that opening, too.
#3 Posted by Noah Body, CJR on Fri 10 Aug 2012 at 01:40 PM
Noah,
I'm sorry, we're trying to figure out what happened to your original comment. I never saw it before it disappeared.
#4 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Fri 10 Aug 2012 at 01:52 PM
Hi Ryan:
Okay, thanks for letting me know. I try not to troll around these parts (well, any parts), but was getting worried something I wrote came across wrong. Really wrong, considering the charming posts you usually let stand. I'll assume my original comment was just sacrificed to the great Internet gods.
#5 Posted by Noah Body, CJR on Fri 10 Aug 2012 at 02:33 PM
"charming posts you usually let stand"
:)
You sweet talker, you.
#6 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 10 Aug 2012 at 06:36 PM
Noah, we're not sure what happened to it, but It may have gotten accidentally caught up in a manual spam sweep.
Apologies.
#7 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Fri 10 Aug 2012 at 07:25 PM