A lot of people express frustration with “are-we or aren’t-we” economic stories, like the one this morning by The New York Times’s Peter Goodman, who tries to figure out whether or not we’re in an official recession.
What’s in a name, anyway?
The American economy expanded more slowly than expected from April to June, the government reported Thursday, while numbers for the last three months of 2007 were revised downward to show a contraction — the first official slide backward since the last recession in 2001.
But I understand the editorial choice. An economy that feels this bad is hard to reconcile with the fact that, according to official data anyway, it expanded at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter.
That upside performance was buoyed by consumer spending, apparently itself propped by this year’s federal tax rebate:
which amounts to 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate between April and June, after growing at a meager 0.9 percent clip in the previous quarter.
But all arrows are pointing down, as the Times notes about durable goods:
This spending barely grew in the last three months of 2007, fell at a 4.3 percent clip in the first three months of this year and dropped at a 3 percent pace in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, joblessness is growing, with new unemployment claims filed in the week that ended July 26 swelling to 448,000 — up 44,000 from the previous week. And the purchasing power of wages is being eroded by higher prices for food and energy.
You just feel this guy is going to be right:
“We already knew the economy was weak, and now you have both a negative growth number coupled with job losses,” said Dean Baker, a director of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. “There’s a lot of real bad times to come.”
Betting on worse to come
Bloomberg, again, does a nice job of straining to see beyond the headlights, today with a story about how two investors who follow the so-called “macro-investing” style pioneered by George Soros, which looks for profit in macroeconomic trends by trading currencies, bonds, stocks and commodities, see serious trouble ahead:
“Macro investors are torn between two views: We’re in something like the 1970s or we’re in something like the 1930s,” said Christopher Watling, head of London-based research firm Longview Economics, referring to the two worst periods of economic pain in the last century.
I’ll take the ‘70s, if anybody’s asking.
The two investors in question are up this year
Clarium LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund run by Peter Thiel, gained 47 percent this year as of July 25 on trades that paid off when stocks and the U.S. dollar fell, according to two of his investors. Alan Howard’s Brevan Howard Fund Ltd. rose almost 18 percent, helped by holdings that profited as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates seven times since September to keep the U.S. out of a recession, according to monthly shareholder reports.
And their bets are against the U.S. economy:
is positioned to profit from declines in U.S. stock prices and the dollar, particularly against the yen, the investors said. Thiel, who declined to comment, also expects 30-year Treasuries to rise as the U.S. moves closer to deflation, or an extended period of falling prices.
The only difference is Howard thinks we’ll get stagflation, not deflation, so, rising prices too.
If you’re wondering, Soros, at age, 78 and back from saving the world to steer his funds through the credit crisis, last year “made 31 percent investing in India and China,” Bloomberg says.
On the bright side, the Carlyle Group is getting crushed:
Carlyle Group is liquidating its $600 million Blue Wave hedge fund, which has been plagued by losses in mortgage-backed securities since its March 2007 launch.
(Cue muted trombone: wha waaah)