Sony has been trying to convince consumers for three years that its Blu-ray technology is the high-definition successor to the conventional DVD, while Toshiba has been trying to do the same with its HD DVD.
After Warner Brothers Entertainment announced on January 4 that it would put out its movies exclusively on Blu-ray, the end of this format war drew closer. But Warner’s decision still left two of the seven major studios supporting HD DVD.
Many outlets gave us solid reporting on the Warner announcement and its implications. But in the following days, some coverage descended into the rumor mill. The desire to publish a scoop on what seemed a logical conclusion—that Paramount and Universal, the two major studios still on HD DVD—would switch exclusively to Blu-ray led to some irresponsible prognostication, especially on the part of the Financial Times. The incident illustrates the perils of reporting on the technology industry, with its speed-of-light changes and the cloud of rumor that constantly envelops it.
First some background. The battle between Sony and Toshiba over the next generation of media delivery has been raging for years in the tech press, which has often compared it to the format war between Sony’s Betamax and JVC’s VHS in the late seventies and early eighties, though smart pieces point out the differences.
The two new formats are not identical—Blu-ray costs more and holds more data than HD DVD, for instance—but the technological superiority of either one is not obvious.
What’s been clear all along is that it was to the advantage of the Hollywood studios—and consumers, who don’t want to buy a technology that may soon be outmoded—to choose one format and bury the other. The high prices for the discs and players, combined with the fact that most people don’t own high-definition TVs on which to see the new formats in their full glory, meant that neither format has sold widely. Studio support split between the two, and for a long time neither appeared poised for a victory.
That is, until Warner Brothers’ move in early January, which sparked a flurry of articles predicting Blu-ray’s ultimate triumph.
It gave us headlines like CNET’s “Warner goes Blu-ray exclusively, delivering crushing blow to HD DVD”, the FT’s “Breakthrough for Blu-ray as Warner gives full support,” and The Wall Street Journal’s “Blu-ray Lands a Big Fish: Warner” (link for non-subscribers). All fair analyses of the news.
But then the rumors started.
On January 8 the Financial Times published a confusing article on the front page of its Companies & Markets section that began:
Paramount is poised to drop its support of HD-DVD following Warner Brothers’ recent backing of Sony’s Blu-ray technology.
This is a nice scoop—if it’s true. Problem is, the article doesn’t tell us where the information came from. The only attribution regarding the switch comes in the fourth graph, when “people familiar with the situation” say that Paramount:
is understood to have a clause in its contract with the HD-DVD camp that would allow it to switch sides in the event of Warner backing Blu-ray.
The reporters are stretching here. What does it mean to say that the clause “is understood” to exist? Either their sources should know for sure that the escape clause exists or they shouldn’t get space on the page.
As for the article’s main point, the shift itself, so far the FT appears to have jumped the gun: Ten days after the story, which made the move sound imminent, Paramount still hasn’t abandoned HD DVD. And Paramount denied the rumor the same day the story ran.
The next day, Variety offered its own anonymously sourced scoop but presented it better than the FT did.
The two remaining studios backing HD DVD could switch sides soon, ending the high-def format war instantly
Daily Variety has confirmed that Universal’s commitment to backing HD DVD exclusively has ended. And Paramount has an escape clause in its HD DVD contract allowing it to release pics on Blu-ray after Warner Bros.’ decision to back that format exclusively.