Arvedlund is writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer here, not for Barron’s or for people with huge amounts of risk capital and disposable income. The last thing this audience needs is speculative advice about buying gold now and trying to time the market so that you sell it before the bubble bursts. But if I were a hedge fund manager, I would wonder whether this column marked some kind of a turning point. It’s entirely possible that Arvedlund has hit the very moment at which gold starts to underperform house prices. Which isn’t to say, of course, that either of them are going up.
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Magnificent.
#1 Posted by WinstonC, CJR on Tue 1 Feb 2011 at 09:10 PM
Let's put the story into better frame. Is she right to ward people off from buying a home?
Right now, yes. it's not a good time to buy real estate and it won't be until the government starts clearing up the property rights messes the banks have created.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/why-foreclosure-fraud-is-so-dangerous-to-property-rights/
If you ask me, the regulatory environment is too weak and the market is too risky for the buyer to not beware.
(One hopes that the CFPA will alter that environment)
However, is it a good time to buy gold? There's been a few gold spikes lately because Peter Schiff and the other gold bugs love to spread hyper inflationary fears.
And if the republicans do decide to play chicken with the debt ceiling, then maybe.
But it could also be that prolonged low demand will result in prolonged low inflation. Therefore, advising people to run to gold when there isn't a shock to
justify it is a very bad call for investors. Especially when that market is already inflated on the advice of people like Schiff and hucksters like Glen Beck (sponsored by Goldline).
I suggest investing in tulips. They're a good buy and their value can only grow (at least until fall, that is)
#2 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 12:35 AM
My heart breaks over what has happened to Philadelphia's newspapers.
#3 Posted by MB, CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 02:53 PM
Felix, I been doing my best to ignore you, and I'm sure you'll repay the favor but, really, doesn't a $40k blogging gig like this bring with it some responsibility to be
1. relevant (Erin Arvedlund --yes, that Erin Arvedlund -- is a person who wrote a book about Bernie Madoff after he got convicted. Wowee. That she had questions about him before that hardly makes her special, and that she now has an Inquirer column hardly makes her as important as, say, you are)
2. coherent (you write, "Being “financially smart” is not the same as investing in whichever asset gives you the highest return over some given time horizon. If that were the case, then everybody should just go out and start selling lottery tickets without any downside protection.") Dude, that's what states-- and legally no one else--does...and very profitably!
--and, maybe, once in a while
3. trenchant?
I mean, I know you have other important responsibilities but, seriously. Tomorrow is call your AG day, just for instance. Cause it turns out they're not actually doing anything about mortgage fraud like they said they was gonna.
#4 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 05:34 PM