The Washington Post rah-rah story on trade with Mexico last week left out key context for its American readers.
The Post writes that Mexicans are buying lots of American-made stuff thanks to NAFTA, a growing middle class, and retailers like Costco. But the paper does all it can to avoid talking about the flipside of that coin: That Americans are buying way more Mexican stuff than they’re buying from us. Since NAFTA, our balance of trade with Mexico has gone from small surplus to massive deficit.
The Post glosses this over by mentioning it once, deep in the story, and framing it as a positive for Mexico rather than as a negative for the US:
“Before NAFTA, we had a slight trade deficit with the United States,” said Daniel Chiquiar, a Bank of Mexico statistician. “Now we have a huge trade surplus.”
Yay, Mexico. But it’s bad for the US when we buy significantly more stuff from someone than we sell to them. At base, it means we’re borrowing money to finance exporting our own jobs.
The Post never bothers to tell readers how much that Mexican trade surplus with us is. The U.S. Trade Representative puts it at $54 billion last year, or about $174 per American. Or let’s frame it like the Post does: Every Mexican man, woman, and child on average sold us $482 more than we bought from them.
(It’s worth noting that the US International Trade Commission says our trade deficit with Mexico is far higher, at $103 billion, though that doesn’t include services.)
So while the Post touts how many “marbled slabs of steak” Mexicans buy from us at Costco, it doesn’t give us a dollar figure on Costco revenue there, telling us only that same-store sales (I think, the paper is sort of hazy here) were up 12 percent last year. It doesn’t mention that Costco’s same-store sales everywhere were up 11 percent and its overall sales were up 14 percent.
Nor does the Post wonder whether Costco sells more US goods in Mexico or more Mexican goods in the US. You can bet it’s the latter by a mile, since there are all of 32 Costcos south of the border.
Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research notes that the WaPo, which he notes has a two-decade history of cheerleading NAFTA, is just wrong in its enthusiasm about Mexico’s middle class, its overall economy, and the impact of trade agreements with the US:
In reality Mexico had the slowest growing economy in Latin America over the last decade, but what do you expect, it’s the Washington Post.
And Public Citizen writes that:
The Post article missed nearly two-thirds of the NAFTA story. It reported that “trade between the United States and Mexico is surging” thanks to NAFTA. Indeed. But 65% of the surge has been in Mexican products imported into the US, not US products heading to Mexico. While US exports to Mexico have more than doubled since NAFTA, imports from Mexico have more than quadrupled (after controlling for inflation). The net impact on US workers has been the disappearance of hundreds of thousands of jobs as the small pre-NAFTA trade surplus with Mexico has crashed into 17 consecutive years of trade deficits.
The only data the Post gives us on the jobs impact comes from a consultant paid by Mexico and uses a misleading measure that doesn’t account for the net impact on employment here, much less wages:
About 6 million jobs in the United States depend on trade with Mexico, according to the consulting group Trade Partnership Worldwide, which calculated the total for the Mexican government in 2008.
Then there’s the harder-to-quantify impact on labor here. If you work for an American automaker, say, your executives can send your work to Mexico and pay someone $4 an hour and import the car to the U.S. sans tariff, you have much less leverage to demand higher wages and benefits than you would without NAFTA.
Which is one reason why middle-class Americans have struggled while middle-class Mexicans have prospered.
NAFTA is only free trade in an Orwellian, inversion-of-reality sense.
#1 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Mon 17 Sep 2012 at 02:53 PM
"Real free trade, of course, doesn't require years of high-level government negotiations. ... What the Establishment wants is government-directed, government-negotiated trade, which is mercantilism not free trade." -Murray Rothbard
#2 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Mon 17 Sep 2012 at 02:57 PM
Why, it's almost as if the fish-wrap formerly known as the Washington Post presents incomplete and misleading information disguised as "news". Well, there's a surprise to anyone who hasn't been paying attention for the past 30 years! Too bad there's not some sort of job which acts to hold the paper to account - perhaps an "ombudsman"? Oh, wait - knowing the former Post, that job would be turned into an apologist and 'rationalizer' for the editorial staff rather than an advocate for the public interest. Haha; silly me!
#3 Posted by JohnR, CJR on Mon 17 Sep 2012 at 04:19 PM
The mclatchy coverage of Mexico has been much better:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/mexico-future-at-risk/
One of the things people don't seem to get when it came to NAFTA was that there was supposed to be all of these mutually beneficial consequences that came with trade and the liberalized economies within the zone, the problem being was that the benefits were something like point z and the 'bcdefg...' was kind of left out of analysis.
Mexico was an agricultural based economy. When trade was liberalized and common land which, public properties which people farmed, became fenced off, you had subsistence farmers competing against industrial farms which were subsidized. The people who didn't own their farms were kicked off and the people who did lost them because they couldn't sell their corn.
This created a huge population displacement which could only find work as labor in the Maquiladora towns. American food was being traded for Mexican manufacturing that American manufacturing could not compete with - especially when Mexico started building special free trade zones free of taxes and regulation, the stuff that brings benefit of development to the country the development is taking place in.
Then along came China into the WTO.
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 17 Sep 2012 at 05:04 PM
Delong did a good write up of this back in the day.
http://delong.typepad.com/pdf/20061223_DeLong_Aftathoughts_on_NAFTA.pdf
It'd be nice if the post could get someone like him, someone deeply involved and invested in the policy at the time, to comment on it.
Because hey, according to here:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/06/17/152063/why-mexico-just-cant-get-ahead.html
"Mexico’s malaise comes despite conditions that ought to foster a boom. The market economy is open and stable. A champion of global commerce, Mexico has free-trade agreements with 43 countries, among the most of any country on Earth. The autonomous Banco de Mexico keeps a tight lid on inflation. Mexico’s beaches and Mayan ruins draw a steady flow of tourists despite crime elsewhere in the nation. The country has also made decisive steps toward the sharing of power. Indeed, Mexico today is what it never really was before – a democracy."
But in spite of all that supply side, neoliberal, free tradey goodness..
"“Compared to the rest of the world, Mexico has essentially been at a standstill during the past 30 years,” said a report issued in April, “A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All,” produced by Centennial Group International, a strategic consulting firm in Washington, and Mexico Evalua, a public policy think tank in Mexico City."
Makes you think, don't it.
#5 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 17 Sep 2012 at 05:08 PM
Any discussion of trade with Mexico is woefully incomplete if U.S. imports of Mexican oil are not taken into account. The word "oil" does not appear in Chittum's article.
#6 Posted by Frank Niering, CJR on Tue 18 Sep 2012 at 05:28 AM