The Wall Street Journal’s new Money & Investing chief, Francesco Guerrera, has an awfully narrow perspective about “Why This Crisis Differs From the 2008 Version.”
First, as an aside, it’s worth noting that The Wall Street Journal is calling this a “crisis.” That’s no small thing.
But this column is problematic. See this:
Starting from the most obvious: The two crises had completely different origins.
The older one spread from the bottom up. It began among over-optimistic home buyers, rose through the Wall Street securitization machine, with more than a little help from credit-rating firms, and ended up infecting the global economy. It was the financial sector’s breakdown that caused the recession.
The current predicament, by contrast, is a top-down affair. Governments around the world, unable to stimulate their economies and get their houses in order, have gradually lost the trust of the business and financial communities.
That, in turn, has caused a sharp reduction in private sector spending and investing, causing a vicious circle that leads to high unemployment and sluggish growth. Markets and banks, in this case, are victims, not perpetrators.
I would argue that it’s not right that these are two crises rather than one long one interrupted by a dead-cat bounce.
But even if you accept the frame, it’s just flat not true that these two crises had completely different origins. The first one, brought on wholly by the financial industry, resulted in a disastrous recession and subsequent increase in governments’ debt, which is what’s largely triggering the current maelstrom (though continued worries about the housing market and our biggest banks are surely key contributors). In the U.S. and UK that increase in debt may wind up being fifty percentage points of GDP—stunning numbers.
You can’t separate the second from the first, which is why historians will surely consider them one event.
Guerrera comes back around to this only to point out that the increase in government debt caused by the first crisis isn’t on the table this time:
The final distinction is a direct consequence of the first two. Given its genesis, the 2008 financial catastrophe had a simple, if painful, solution: Governments had to step in to provide liquidity in droves through low interest rates, bank bailouts and injections of cash into the economy.
A Federal Reserve official at the time called it “shock and awe.” Another summed it up thus: “We will backstop everything.”
The policy didn’t come cheap as governments world-wide poured around $1 trillion into the system. Nor was it fair to the tax-paying citizens who had to pick up the tab for other people’s sins. But it eventually succeeded in avoiding a global Depression.
In other words, the financial industry created the first crisis, which sent governments’ debt-to-GDP ratio soaring, which provoked the second crisis, which is happening in part because governments can’t spend anymore because of the first crisis. But “the two crises had completely different origins”? There’s just no reason to believe we’d be going through this “second” crisis without the first.
And then there’s this, on what supposedly caused the first crisis:
The older one spread from the bottom up. It began among over-optimistic home buyers, rose through the Wall Street securitization machine, with more than a little help from credit-rating firms, and ended up infecting the global economy. It was the financial sector’s breakdown that caused the recession.
If you think the financial crisis started with homebuyers, you’re getting it ass backward, and it’s a real problem. You just can’t get “over-optimistic home buyers” if homebuyers can’t get over-optimistic loans. The Wall Street securitization machine created the bubble by flooding the system with cash. It’s naive—and dangerous—to think that borrowers are going to turn down hundreds of thousands of dollars aggressively marketed to them with the promise that they can cash out in six months because prices are going up. That’s not to relieve borrowers of responsibility, it’s just to acknowledge that lending, particularly in the housing bubble, is an asymmetrical thing—both with information and with power.

I agree that The WSJ perspective here is stupid. (Note that The WSJ has opened a new front in civility by calling the President "stupid.")
However, this fault is slight in relation to The WSJ's sanitized version of the Education Management story:
EDUCATION AUGUST 9, 2011 For-Profit Educator Is Sued
Justice Department Accuses Education Management of False Claims on Loans
By BRENT KENDALL The Wall Street Journal.
The WSJ does not mention Goldman Sachs because that might raise questions about how it could have been oblivious to the “boiler-room style sales culture”:
August 8, 2011 For-Profit College Group Sued as U.S. Lays Out Wide Fraud
By TAMAR LEWIN New York Times.
[Education Management, which is based in Pittsburgh and is 41 percent owned by Goldman Sachs, enrolls about 150,000 students in 105 schools operating under four names: Art Institute, Argosy University, Brown Mackie College and South University. ...
According to the 122-page complaint, Education Management got $2.2 billion of federal financial aid in fiscal 2010, making up 89.3 percent of its net revenues. ...
The complaint said the company had a “boiler-room style sales culture” in which recruiters were instructed to use high-pressure sales techniques and inflated claims about career placement to increase student enrollment, regardless of applicants’ qualifications. Recruiters were encouraged to enroll even applicants who were unable to write coherently, who appeared to be under the influence of drugs or who sought to enroll in an online program but had no computer.]
#1 Posted by Clayton Burns, CJR on Tue 9 Aug 2011 at 05:48 PM
Where do I pay the parasite tax?
msnbc.com: Was S&P downgrade an act of revenge? …
[It's hard to view the monumental ratings downgrade in context without understanding the long-running feud between the government and ratings agencies. In April, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., issued a scathing 650-page report contending that malfeasance at ratings bureaus like Standard & Poor’s was as much to blame for the housing bubble as any bank, and included a series of smoking gun e-mails that suggested that the firms knew they were profiting from unethical behavior. A little-known section of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill also hits the rating agencies with new limits destined to undercut their lucrative business; the Securities and Exchange Commission is discussing right now just how to implement the new rules. The public comment period on new rules ended Monday.]
S&P is like Kaplan, a parasite on the system. It is striking just how much parasitism there is in American education and in wider circles. Apparently, precise measures of the opportunity costs of such practices are not in place.
#2 Posted by Clayton Burns, CJR on Tue 9 Aug 2011 at 06:23 PM
Hi, Clayton,
Thanks for the links, but I'd request that you keep comments more or less on topic here and it's best not to do multiple ones in a row.
R
#3 Posted by Ryan Chittum, CJR on Tue 9 Aug 2011 at 06:50 PM
@Ryan, you don't feel this is a crisis? Really? As for the "narrow perspective"; agree that there are numerous guilty parties in the current (insert whatever term you want), but I think a fair accounting would both implicate banks and borrowers. They were all stupid and reckless, but for the most part not evil or criminal.
And you can't ignore government debt this time around. It's a huge part of the current mess and every bit as problematic to fix as the mortgage debacle.
#4 Posted by JLD, CJR on Tue 9 Aug 2011 at 07:24 PM
Ryan and Francesco, you're both missing the mark. You give a pass to the main culprits: federal policymakers and their enablers at the Federal Reserve, which monetizes the monstrous spending and "risk-free" speculation through monetary inflation, easy credit, and promises to bail out failures. You consider the culprits to be the legitimate rescuers! Like the old broken-window fallacy, gone wild: the window-breaking gang shows up and gets hired to replace all the broken windows. Meanwhile, free-market capitalism and its exponents are blamed for the artificial, non-free market booms and the inevitable busts. What chutzpah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iET6TxDJzA&feature=player_detailpage#t=228s
#5 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Tue 9 Aug 2011 at 08:10 PM
Dan's certainly right about this: you can't excuse Alan Greenspan.
Seriously though, Ryan: given the popularity of the ass-backwards "bottom-up" theory of the crash, and given the reality that no one gains respect today without cashing in on one's superior knowledge, why don't we devise a plan to make money on those idiots?
Think of it, man: they're smug, they're wrong, and plenty of them have lots more spare cash lying about than we do. By their own logic and morality, they deserve to lose that money.
Like they say: stupid should hurt!
#6 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Wed 10 Aug 2011 at 12:37 PM
"Dan's certainly right about this: you can't excuse Alan Greenspan."
A year ago, Alan Greenspan didn't excuse Alan Greenspan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=731G71Sahok
But now the narrative has changed. The banks shifted the costs of their actions onto the societies, so now the discussion is about how are the societies going to pay.
As Galbraith put it:
http://my.firedoglake.com/selise/2011/08/01/james-k-galbraith-the-final-death-and-next-life-of-maynard-keynes/
"When you engage the mainstream on the national income accounts, at least they know what the damn things are. And these days you can even get, though for who knows how much longer, a respectful mention of Minsky even from someone like Larry Summers, if not any sign that he has actually read him.
What you cannot get – not at a meeting sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, not from the participants at the Institute for New Economic Thinking – is any serious discussion of contract law and fraud. I’ve tried, repeatedly. No one will deny, in response to the question, the role that fraud played in the financial debacle. How could they? But they won’t discuss it either. And it seems to me, this reflects a logic which bears pursuing.
Why not? Why is this one of the great taboo topics of our modern economic history? Well, personal complicity, frankly, plays a role among present and former government officials, regulators, consultants and the academics who advised them and those who either played the markets or took fees from those who did...
Complexity here is what is going to defeat the market with, in principle, infinite variability, and in practice, more distinct features than one can keep up with. In great volume, contracts of these kinds are per se hyper-vulnerable to fraud. Examples range from the New Jersey phone company that simply printed made-up fees on its bills hoping that no one would notice and for a long time nobody did, to the fact that almost no one at the insurance giant AIG realized that the CDS contracts they were selling contained a cash collateral clause, something that would cost them billions at a time when they didn’t have access to the cash. They range from unnoticed provisions permitting CDO managers to substitute worse for better mortgages in previously sold packages without notifying the investors, to the Mortgage Electronic Registration System and the pervasive incentive to document fraud in the foreclosure process.
The concession that fraud was present in this process is like the phrase, “Minsky moment.” Although true and although it concedes something, it doesn’t begin to cover the case. Even to say that fraud overwhelmed the system doesn’t go far enough.
I highly recommend to you, if you haven’t done so, that you read the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report just published in the United States, or the even more recent report of the Senate Permanent Committee on Investigations, the many reports of the Congressional Oversight Panel and the report of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Fund, SIGTARP. These are, by the way, very, very good documents prepared by serious public servants and it’s plain as day. Fraud was not a bug in the system, it was a feature. The word itself, along with abusive, egregious, reckless and even criminogenic suffuses these accounts of what went on."
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 10 Aug 2011 at 02:15 PM
Ryan wrote: "The current tumult had its origins in the housing bust and Crash of 2008"
Which probably should have read: The current tumult had its origins in the wheels-off intervention of the govt and the FED
(E.g., see: globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/decade-of-stimulus-yields-nothing-but.html.)
Edward wrote: "Dan's certainly right about this: you can't excuse Alan Greenspan."
Uh, no. Dan didn't say that. But, had he said that, he would've been correct. Greenspan, the monetarist-Keynesian, is quite culpable.
#8 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Wed 10 Aug 2011 at 02:31 PM
"Fraud was not a bug in the system, it was a feature. The word itself, along with abusive, egregious, reckless and even criminogenic suffuses these accounts of what went on."
Dang, I had thought I'd kept it under 600.
What is really going on?
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2011/06/financial-road-to-serfdom-how-bankers.html
"Financial strategists do not intend to let today’s debt crisis go to waste. Foreclosure time has arrived. That means revolution – or more accurately, a counter-revolution to roll back the 20th century’s gains made by social democracy: pensions and social security, public health care and other infrastructure providing essential services at subsidized prices or for free. The basic model follows the former Soviet Union’s post-1991 neoliberal reforms: privatization of public enterprises, a high flat tax on labor but only nominal taxes on real estate and finance, and deregulation of the economy’s prices, working conditions and credit terms.
What is to be reversed is the “modern” agenda. The aim a century ago was to mobilize the Industrial Revolution’s soaring productivity and technology to raise living standards and use progressive taxation, public regulation, central banking and financial reform to distribute wealth fairly and make societies more equal. Today’s financial aim is the opposite: to concentrate wealth at the top of the economic pyramid and lower labor’s returns. High finance loves low wages."
Or if you prefer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 10 Aug 2011 at 02:32 PM
Guerrara's shift from FT to WSJ is sad. He was one of the most insightful journalists ever at FT -- a real colossus among many peers. I watched him in a video clip from the WSJ website being questioned by a pair of fugitives from the Weather Channel -- disturbing. Guerrara, how could you have done this?
#10 Posted by Mike Robbins, CJR on Wed 10 Aug 2011 at 03:12 PM