American media are still missing in action on the controversy currently embroiling the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition to the criticisms related to glaciers and natural disasters, the IPCC came under fire last week for a statement in its 2007 report that said 40 percent of the Amazon is vulnerable to even a small change in rainfall.
“The source for its claim,” according to a succinct explanation in The Sunday Times, “was a report from WWF, an environmental pressure group, which was authored by two green activists. They had based their ‘research’ on a study published in Nature, the science journal, which did not assess rainfall but in fact looked at the impact on the forest of human activity such as logging and burning. This weekend WWF said it was launching an internal inquiry into the study.”
Having read the 1999 study published in Nature, that seems like a fairly accurate description of the situation. However, the Sunday Telegraph reported that when it contacted the study’s authors, “they expressed surprise that their research was not cited directly but said the IPCC had accurately represented their work.” If that is indeed the case, elaboration is needed—because the focus of their study is most definitely logging and burning, not rainfall.
On the other hand, much as the error related to Himalayan glaciers does not mean there is no reason to worry about them, this blunder related to the Amazon does not mean there is no reason to worry about the rainforest.
As BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin noted in a Friday blog post, citing WWF’s report on the Amazon was a “blunder perhaps, but maybe of a different kind, because there is indeed plenty of published science warning about drought in the Amazon.”
Simon Lewis, a geographer from Leeds University who studies human impact on tropical forests, intimated to Harrabin (and was more explicit with The Sunday Times) that the IPCC should not have cited the WWF report. On the other hand, Lewis said, “It is very well known that in Amazonia, tropical forests exist when there is more than about 1.5 metres of rain a year, below that the system tends to ‘flip’ to savannah.”
This is exactly why the American media needs to get the lead out and start paying attention to this story. The IPCC is undergoing a major crisis in public confidence (on Monday, The Independent—yet another British paper covering this story—reported that the British government has officially voiced its concerns about the IPCC to the panel’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri) and, because the disparate areas of climate science are so complicated, it has been altogether too easy for some critics to throw good science out with the bad.
The BBC’s Harrabin had another post on Monday reflecting on the challenges journalists have faced in telling the IPCC story:
Commenting on climate change for the popular media is a miserable business - especially when it involves attempting to convey subtle and complex information whilst being interviewed live…
What we need is a new discourse which acknowledges the majority view on climate science, accepts uncertainties and encourages debate among scientists over their observations of the world - a debate framed in the language of risk and uncertainty in which economics and societal values play a central role.
Will we see such a debate? Don’t bet on it. There is more fun to be had for some journalists when combatants are throwing bricks at each other. The pity is that it’s public understanding of climate change that’s being damaged, and maybe the planet as well.
I couldn’t have written it better myself.
[Update: Harrabin posted another excellent column on Wednesday, exploring (and questioning) various proposals to reform the IPCC. Suggestions have included replacing its chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, including more skeptical viewpoints in its next report, creating more full-time positions on the panel, altering the timing of its reports, and changing its guidelines for the use of “grey literature” (non-peer-reviewed information) among others. Appropriately, Harrabin advised caution on all these matters, warning that some changes could make the panel worse. In particular, he expressed doubts that the “manhunt” for Pachauri would “produce a better system of climate science.”]

Curtis, again, thank you for covering this – although I really shouldn’t have to thank you, it is your job after all. It’s just that there is so little acknowledgment of anti-AGW news that any crack of light seems providential.
My guess is that the authors of the rainforest-burning study are, like most environmentalists, full-bore hockey puck waving cheerleaders for AGW alarmism. As such they would be more than happy to (as you point out) deliberately misinterpret their own study in order to defend AGW against its critics.
This is exactly the mindset that has created the AGW "majority view” you now refer to.
I care about the environment, but let’s look at AGW and its “solutions” with some skepticism for once. Even assuming AGW is true, do we really need an unaccountable bureaucracy to redistribute wealth? How do you feel about the head of the IPCC having substantial economic conflicts of interest, and his decision to promote bad science which furthered his own interests?
#1 Posted by JLD, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 08:39 PM
The AGW scandal will go down in history as the end of "journalism"..
Facts are springing forth all over the internet, and the conspirators are coming clean faster than they can be counted.
And the MSM is asleep at the switch, as it was on ACORN, on John Edwards, etc., etc., etc...
If it offends liberal sensitivities, it isn't a story in the dead-tree press.
#2 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 2 Feb 2010 at 08:58 PM
Well, to be perfectly honest, I think you could have written it better. But that would have depended on your willingness to point out that for all the "research" (and billions spent) since the birth of the human generated CO2 -->global warming (aka climate change) myth, not one of these scientists' computer-generated-models has been able to demonstrate causation.
You could also have written that if the world swallows this mantra of the dreaded C02 and ventures into the ludicrously expensive exchange of carbon credits, this will not only not reduce CO2 emissions, but also will leave no money left with which to implement known solutions to known problems - that are a genuine threat to the future of the planet and its inhabitants.
#3 Posted by hro001, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 04:26 AM
Apparently, the last two posters on this article failed to read it in its entirety, and ended up embodying the very contradiction that is being discussed.
The errors of the IPCC have nothing to do with the validity of AWG. They have to do with certain predictions regarding AWG's effect on the environment that were made by questionable sources.
This either/or debate regarding AWG subject is the greatest tragedy to come out of the whole affair. Some pundits seem to interpret any correction, or nuanced evaluation of the data as a sign of weakness in the accuracy of AWG research. This is not the case.
The science regarding whether or not Global Warming is occurring, and what is causing it, are solid. It's the rumored affects of this warming that are controversial. This does not mean that Global Warming is not real, or that the causes for it are not primarily man-made. AWG is real, and proven.
Unfortunately, we live in such a polarized society that any correction is seen as the revealing of a conspiracy. Anyone who has followed this topic diligently, knows that this not true.
Certainly, I wish we could live in a society where dramatic predictions about the effects of a serious environmental problem were not used by both sides as a weapon, but that's not reality. It's placing pressure on scientists who already have enough to deal with. The attempt to score political points for practical revisions of scientific data. can only damage science in the long run.
We already have enough trouble getting the average person to understand even the most basic facts about the various fields of science, and those who continue to spread myths about the research are only facilitating this decline; and for their own political gain.
Anyone who interprets the most recent corrections as proof that AWG is false, needs not only a basic review of Earth Science, but a basic education in how the Scientific process actually works.
Ultimately, this article did effectively reinforce the idea that most people tend to read only the headlines, or first half of a news article.
#4 Posted by Michael, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 05:23 AM
The latest independent review of the data (in a peer-reviewed study in the prestigious journal "Geophysical Research Letters") shows that the atmospheric fraction of man-made CO2 is not even increasing at all, and hasn't increased a lick since 1850!
So the whole thing is nothing but a silly Marxist crack dream from the very beginning!
http://radioviceonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/knorr2009_co2_sequestration.pdf
So much for the "basic Earth Science" schtick.... The anti-capitalist AGW nonsense is falling apart and in its death throes.
Scrutiny is to AGW proponents as a flashlight is to cockroaches.
#5 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 07:21 AM
@padikiller - When you throw out phrases like "silly Marxist crack dream" you do nothing but make me see your statements as politicized and uninformed. Michael says it best when he said no one is well-served by the politicization of scientific data and the misreading of the scientific process.
#6 Posted by laura k, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 10:41 AM
@laura k
Don't bother reading my statements... Read the peer-reviewed article I posted and you will reach the same conclusions I did.
#7 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 06:44 PM
If you think American journalism is bad on climate change just try to sell two novels about it set in the near future. No one is interested. Even the entertainment gatekeepers are scared of the truth.
#8 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 10:06 PM
padkiller you misinterpret the actual meaning of the article,
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/unforced-variations-2/
“Knorr (GRL, 2009) is a study about how much of the human emissions are staying the atmosphere (around 40%) and whether that is detectably changing over time. It does not undermine the fact that CO2 is rising. The confusion in the denialosphere is based on a misunderstanding between ‘airborne fraction of CO2 emissions’ (not changing very much) and ‘CO2 fraction in the air’ (changing very rapidly), led in no small part by a misleading headline (subsequently fixed) on the ScienceDaily news item Update: MT/AH point out the headline came from an AGU press release (Sigh…). SkepticalScience has a good discussion of the details including some other recent work by Le Quéré and colleagues…”
Sorry Charlie. No Starkist status for you.
#9 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 10:16 PM
@ Mark York
"denialosphere"?????
Are you for real, Mark?
Dude, do you realize that you have tried (and failed) to refute a peer-reviewed scientific article from one of the most prominent climate journals in existence by using some web article from some screwy AGW-embracing site that actually includes the (non)word "denialosphere"?
Try again, Sport. Let's have a peer-reviewed refutation of the article I posted instead of your silly "warmingist" nonsense from some agenda-driven hack site. Do this and get back to us, OK? (I won't hold be holding my breath)
It's "Big Boy" science time. Man up and deal with the new paradigm here, Mark.
#10 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 3 Feb 2010 at 10:39 PM
"Agenda driven hack site?" These are the big boys, Junior. Mann, Schmidt, Benestad &C at NASA. Are you for real? Sadly, yes.
#11 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 12:02 PM
If it's "scientific" response includes the word "denialosphere", it is indeed a hack site.
While CO2 levels are increasing, the percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere hasn't changed since 1850.
This would mean that the CO2 increase is due to NATURAL causes.
Surprise, surprise. CO2 levels have varied wildly over the Earth's history.
There is no correlation prven between the negligible rise in CO2 concentrations over the last 160 years and the claimed increase (less than 1 degree) in average global temperatures.
#12 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 12:29 PM
How 'bout these hacks?
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/iadv/graph/mlo/mlo_co2_ts_obs_03397.png
"However, some studies have suggested that the ability of oceans and plants to absorb carbon dioxide recently may have begun to decline and that the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is therefore beginning to increase."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091230184221.htm
#13 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 12:54 PM
"While CO2 levels are increasing, the percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere hasn't changed since 1850."
Right except that this isn't true.
#14 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 12:56 PM
Preach on it, Brother York!
Spoken like a "True Believingist." There's Peace Prize for you right around the corner!
#15 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 01:11 PM
The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps
Filed under: Climate Science Greenhouse gases — gavin @ 6 August 2007
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/
We often get requests to provide an easy-to-understand explanation for why increasing CO2 is a significant problem without relying on climate models and we are generally happy to oblige. The explanation has a number of separate steps which tend to sometimes get confused and so we will try to break it down carefully.
Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect.
The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of long wave (LW) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and ii) knowing that the planet is roughly in radiative equilibrium. This means that there is an upward surface flux of LW around [tex]\sigma T^4[/tex] (~390 W/m2), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation coming in (1-a)S/4 (~240 W/m2). Thus there is a large amount of LW absorbed by the atmosphere (around 150 W/m2) – a number that would be zero in the absence of any greenhouse substances.
Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.
The fact that different absorbers contribute to the net LW absorption is clear from IR spectra taken from space which show characteristic gaps associated with water vapour, CO2, CH4, O3 etc (Harries et al, 2001; HITRAN). The only question is how much energy is blocked by each. This cannot be calculated by hand (the number of absorption lines and the effects of pressure broadening etc. preclude that), but it can be calculated using line-by-line radiative transfer codes. The earliest calculations (reviewed by Ramanathan and Coakley, 1979) give very similar results to more modern calculations (Clough and Iacono, 1995), and demonstrate that removing the effect of CO2 reduces the net LW absorbed by ~14%, or around 30 W/m2. For some parts of the spectrum, IR can be either absorbed by CO2 or by water vapour, and so simply removing the CO2 gives only a minimum effect. Thus CO2 on its own would cause an even larger absorption. In either case however, the trace gases are a significant part of what gets absorbed.
Step 3: The trace greenhouse gases have increased markedly due to human emissions
CO2 is up more than 30%, CH4 has more than doubled, N2O is up 15%, tropospheric O3 has also increased. New compounds such as halocarbons (CFCs, HFCs) did not exist in the pre-industrial atmosphere. All of these increases contribute to an enhanced greenhouse effect.
Step 4: Radiative forcing is a useful diagnostic and can easily be calculated
Lessons from simple toy models and experience with more sophisticated GCMs suggests that any perturbation to the TOA radiation budget from whatever source is a pretty good predictor of eventual surface temperature change. Thus if the sun were to become stronger by about 2%, the TOA radiation balance would change by 0.02*1366*0.7/4 = 4.8 W/m2 (taking albedo and geometry into account) and this would be the radiative forcing (RF). An increase in greenhouse absorbers or a change in the albedo have analogous impacts on the TOA balance. However, calculation of the radiative forcing is again a job for the line-by-line codes that take into account atmospheric profiles of temperature, water vapour and aerosols. The most up-to-date calculations for the trace gases are by Myhre et al (1998) and those are the ones used in IPCC TAR and AR4.
These calculations can be condensed into simplified fits to the data, such as the oft-used formula for CO2: RF = 5.35 ln(CO2/CO2_orig) (see Table 6.2 in IPCC TAR for the others). The logarithmic form comes
#16 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 01:21 PM
I believe hard science because it's proven true by actual measurements. You should try it. Or did you cheat at math too?
#17 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 01:23 PM
@ Mark York
The problems with your "Beliviengist" hack site's apologetic fairy tale begin in "Step 1" with this : "...the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation coming in ..."
If atmospheric CO2 is causing global warming, then the atmosphere should be warming faster than surface temperatures are... But it isn't. In fact the atmosphere is warming more slowly than surface temperatures.
But hey, why let the mere truth get in the way of an anti-capitalist fairy tale, right?
*************************************************************
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/a-critical-perspective-on-climategate
IEEE Spectrum: Tell us please about your work on the world's temperature and its significance.
John Christy: Since 1978, we've been able to monitor the bulk atmospheric temperature, which tells you whether heat has been accumulating or not. What we've found is an upward trend over 31 years of about 13/100 of a degree Celsius per decade. But you also see typical ups and downs: During the first two decades, temperatures were fairly flat, and increases were below the three-decade average. But with the big 1997 El Niño, there was a shift upward, and after that, temperatures were flat again but above average.
Spectrum: How does this record from microwave satellite observations differ from the temperature record compiled from other sources?
JC: Readings taken at the surface show 0.16 or 0.17 degrees of warming per decade—a bit more than the microwave readings. That may not seem such a great difference, but climate models indicate that if greenhouse gases are causing this warming, the upper atmosphere ought to be warming by about 1.2 times that of the surface, not less.
#18 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 01:59 PM
Have you heard of the ocean? Why is that warming if what you say is true, Her wingnut?
Why do we have tropospheric warming and not stratospheric? HInt: it ain't the Sun, Sherlock.
Is NOAA a "believingist" site? Yeah it's all an anti-capitalist conspiracy, man. Right. To a hammer everything looks like a nail,
#19 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 05:44 PM
You do know Christy is a paid contributor by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, right? To have a theory, or disprove one, you need more than two crack pots saying something. Or ten, compared to the thousands of climate scientists and organizations in the world. That's the deal with consensus.
#20 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 05:49 PM
@ Mark
LOL...
Took you a while to Google these red herrings, didn't it, Mark?
So John Christy is a incredible mercenary?
Really?
Well, that's certainly surprising since John Christy is... is... wait for it...
The LEAD author of the2001 IPCC report!.... (Otherwise known as the "Book of Gore" in the AGW New Testament)
It is too, too funny to see a desperate Warmingist eating one of his own when backed into a corner by the facts.
What Christy says is absolutely and irrefutably true (which is why you are dodging). AGW atmospheric models require top level atmospheric warming that just isn't there in the data. Not in his 33 year record of satellite data. Not in the radiosonde data. Not in ANY data.
This dearth of corroboratoin is reflected in the Climategate email chain, as the Warmingists conspired to hide/suppress/ignore/ the facts and to castigate the scientists who insisted upon dealing with those irritating "fact-thingies" instead of AGW fairy tales.
Sure, Christy makes money... Maybe not as much as his AGW pals do, and certainly not as much as Al "Private Jet" Gore does.
But this doesn't do anything to the data.
#21 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 06:32 PM
Christy bit the forbidden fruit a long time ago. He's not part of the consensus or involved because he went religious and took the oil money. That contention of needing atmospheric warming is absolutely false. It's a canard not supported by science, modeling or otherwise.
On the contrary, tropospheric warming, combined with stratospheric cooling is predicted by AGW and is what we see. You can look it up, but everyone who says it will be hacks to you. That's the scientific world. Fight the power! Wrong way Feldman flies again.
#22 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 09:03 PM
Mark wrote: Christy bit the forbidden fruit a long time ago. He's not part of the consensus or involved because he went religious and took the oil money.
padikiller responds: So... Since the guy is a money-grubbing "denialist" scumbag and since he was the lead author of the 2001 IPCC report, I suppose the best thing to do is to toss out the 2001 report as junk science, right?
Out it goes...
You win!....
#23 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 4 Feb 2010 at 11:15 PM
Curtis, getting back to your original point, the US media is indeed MIA.
Why not call the Times or CNN and ask them point-blank why they are not running these stories?
#24 Posted by JLD, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 03:10 AM
Leake's reporting in the Times on Amazon forest seems to have been dishonest. Napstad told Leake that the IPCC report was correct and the only thing that was wrong was that the wrong paper was cited. Leake concealed this fact from his readers and instead claimed the IPCC report was "bogus".
#25 Posted by Tim Lambert, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 10:14 AM
Sounds like the typical tactic Tim. Christy's contribution to the 2001 IPCC isn't the total report. It seems they had no problem continuing without him, but throwing out the baby with the bathwater is the desire of the deniers. Too bad science doesn't work like that. That's a good thing.
#26 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 03:47 PM
Failure to cite Dr. Nepstad of The Woods Hole Research Center, along with WWF, which is a clerical error than a factual one, is just the type of thing bad journalism falls prey to. They aid and abet biased smear mongers. It's a real shame. No one ever reads the corrections, if there are any.
#27 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 05:38 PM
HOW TO COVERUP THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH:
From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
Sent: Wed 7/6/2005 5:57 PM
To: Neville Nicholls
Subject: Fwd: Misc
Neville,
Here's an email from John, with the trend from his latest version in. Also has trends for RATPAC and HadAT2. If you can stress in your talks that it is more likely the sondes are wrong - at least as a group. Some may be OK individually. The tropical ones are the key, but it is these that least is know about except for a few regions.
The sondes clearly show too much cooling in the stratosphere (when compared to MSU4), and I reckon this must also affect their upper troposphere trends as well. So, John may be putting too much faith in them wrt agreement with UAH.
Happy for you to use the figure, if you don't pass on to anyone else.
Watch out for Science though and the Mears/Wentz paper if it ever comes out.
Also, do point out that looking at surface trends from 1998 isn't very
clever.
Cheers
Phil
#28 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 05:39 PM
Padikiller this is obviously your life's calling. How about hide the decline?Even though there hadn't been the one your folks claimed he was hiding since the email was in 1999! UAH is Huntsville of course, home of two noted skeptics. Those sondes from that lab were found to be in error. I feel sorry for people as blinkered by conservative politics as you.
#29 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 06:29 PM
As the Climategate emails clearly show, there is no "consensus" even among the AGW True Believers with regard to the best way to handle the plain discrepencies and uncertainties in the data and analyses.
The "Warmingests", led on by Phil Jones, make every effort possible to hide or discredit raw data that won't fit into their AGW models.
In my prior post of a tame Climategate email, Jones is telling a colleague (Neville Nichols) to do this best to discredit raw radiosonde data at an upcoming conference because Jones "reckons" that the sonde data is "likely" "wrong" somehow. He makes sure to tell Nichols to keep quiet about an information source and to "watch out" for scrutiny from certain upcoming papers.
See... This is not how science (supposedly) works. If data is bad, you can't just "reckon" it away because you don't like it, you need to show why it is bad. And you certainly can't encourage your colleagues to play "hide the ball" with the figures.
#30 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 06:39 PM
The email is from 2005 and is based on new radiosonde datasets (that were also in complete disagreement with AGW models).
But why let a mere little "fact-thingie" get between you and your Gorian belief system, right Mark?
#31 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 06:43 PM
No. Jones is telling him that something is indeed wrong with those data. And guess what? Christy admitted there was. Those data were discredited based on hard facts, not suppressing anything. That's what the subsequent record shows. What makes you think complete disagreement goes in that direction and not in favor of Jone's and NASA? Who by the way are the people who put men on the Moon. What have your people done?
#32 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 08:45 PM
Revkin 2005
"Starting around 2001, the satellite data and methods of Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer were re-examined by Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz, scientists at Remote Sensing Systems, a company in Santa Rosa, Calif., that does satellite data analysis for NASA.
They and several other teams have since found more significant warming trends than the original estimate.
But the new paper, by Dr. Mears and Dr. Wentz, identifies a fresh error in the original calculations that, more firmly than ever, showed warming in the troposphere, particularly in the tropics.
The error, in a calculation used to adjust for the drift of the satellites, was disclosed to the University of Alabama scientists at one of the government-run meetings this year, Dr. Christy said.
The new analysis of data from weather balloons examined just one possible source of error, the direct heating of the instruments by the sun.
It found that when data were examined in a way that accounted for that effect, the temperature record produced a warming, particularly in the tropics, again putting the data in line with theory."
Everything is even more in line now. Only crazed wingers led by paid shills don't accept the scientific facts of AGW. What to do about it, and modifying behavior in accordance with these facts is what the fight to deny is all about as you illustrate so well.
#33 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 08:57 PM
http://www.remss.com/papers/msu/A_Reanalysis_of_the_MSU_Channel_2_Tropospheric_Temperature_Record.pdf
CARL A. MEARS, MATTHIAS C. SCHABEL, AND FRANK J. WENTZ
Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, California
(Manuscript received 10 October 2002, in final form 23 May 2003)
ABSTRACT
Over the period from 1979 to 2001, tropospheric trends derived from a widely cited analysis of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) temperature record show little or no warming, while surface temperature trends based on in situ observations show a pronounced warming of 0.2 K decade1. This discrepancy between trends at the surface and in the upper atmosphere has been a source of significant debate. Model predictions of amplification of warming with height in the troposphere are clearly inconsistent with the available observations, leading some researchers to question the adequacy of their representation of the water vapor greenhouse feedback. A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 dataset, with the objective of providing a second independent source of these data, is described in this paper. Results presented herein show a global trend of 0.097 0.020 K decade1, generally agreeing with the work of Prabhakara et al. but in disagreement with the MSU analysis of Christy and Spencer, which shows significantly less (0.09 K decade1) warming. Differences in the various methodologies are discussed and it is demonstrated that the principal source of these discrepancies is in the treatment of errors due to variations in the temperature of the MSU hot calibration target.
#34 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 09:28 PM
Mark wrote: What makes you think complete disagreement goes in that direction and not in favor of Jone's and NASA? Who by the way are the people who put men on the Moon.
padikiller: LOL. NASA are also "the people" who, while dabbling in the climate business, blew up a Mars probe because they forgot to convert inches to centimeters. Oh, and these people also lost two Space Shuttles and their crews over preventable mistakes, killed three astronauts in Apollo I because they put the door on wrong, screwed in the deceleration sensors on the Genesis probe backwards, and messed up the lens on the Hubble space telescope.
The simple fact of the matter is that the Climategate emails not only clearly show dissention among the ranks if the IPCC sceintists, but also the conspiracy to hide data and to suppress criticism.
Fundamentally, the silliest thing about the whole mess is that Earth hasn't warmed since 1998. So much for the "hockey stick" nonsense. It just isn't happening. Sea ice is growing (and so are Himalayan glaciers). Polar bears are reproducing aplenty. Central Park is not awash in melt water. And Al Gore bought a waterfront condo in San Francisco. The sky is not falling.
#35 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 09:48 PM
The discrepency between AGW models (the Prophecy) and observations (Reality) isn't going to go away just because it's an "inconvenient truth".
Even the official U.S. Climate Change Program (comprised of NASA, NOAA, the EPA, DOD, and a bunch of other agencies) has been forced to acknowledge this little slice of reality in its official report:
"Comparing trend differences between the surface and the troposphere exposes potential discrepancies between models and observations in the tropics... ...In the tropics, most observational data sets show more warming at the surface than in the troposphere, while most model runs have larger warming aloft than at the surface."
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-final-chap5.pdf
#36 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 10:11 PM
Observations show global warming at both levels: land and troposphere. Hottest decade ever, man.
I'll take Santer any day. He doesn't agree with you neither. NO one of merit does.
My daddy always said never get in to a pissing match with a skunk. Global arming deniers are a skunk convention, spread the same scent. The only thing true about it is is really stinks. Lies always do.
People aren't going to take repeated bullshit from denier fools. Find another playground.
(CNN) -- The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest ever on Earth according to data released by scientists at NASA.
The U.S. space agency's data also revealed that 2009 was the second warmest year since temperature records began in 1880, and only narrowly cooler than 2005, the warmest year ever.
2008 was the coolest year of the decade but this was attributed to a strong La Nina which causes extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) said in a statement: "There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Nino-La Nina cycle. When we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find global warming is continuing unabated."
In the past three decades, GISS report surface temperature records show an upward trend of about 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade.
#37 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 5 Feb 2010 at 11:33 PM
Mark gets testy: I'll take Santer any day. He doesn't agree with you neither. NO one of merit does.
padikiller scoffs: Baloney! You are resorting to ad hominem in the face of evidence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
More importantly, the CNN story is a dodge. It does not refute the fact that since 1998, the average global temperature has not increased, and that it in fact global temperatures declined from 1998 to 2005 (precisely when the "hockey stick" models forecast drowning polar bears and meltwater floods).
Indeed, Phil Jones knew as much in 2005 when he wrote: "The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant".
So he knew that if he told the truth to scientists, he would catch hell. And this is the guy running the AGW show!
#38 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 12:38 AM
As both an AGW skeptic and an agnostic with atheistic leanings, I am amazed at the similarity between the similarity between AGW Believingists and religious zealots in their debate techniques.
They share the same general traits:
1. They are ill-informed, but believe themselves to be well-informed. They limit themselves to the annointed resources. In the case of AGW adherents, these sources are those that toe the AGW line (like "realclimate.org", as fundamentalists rely on "answersingenesis.org"). Thus, these True Belivers often attain a high level of literacy within their favored side of a polarized issue, but they generally lack any understanding whatsoever of the opposing side of the debate.
2. They assume, at first as the debate begins, that those who oppose their points of view are ignorant. Since they have a strong but one-sided perspective, they conclude that anyone who doesn't agree with them simply hasn't seen their side of the issue. Thus, they attempt at first to "enlighten" opponents with Bible passages (or the AGW equivalent gospels) with the honest expectation that the opponent will "see the light" and convert.
3. As the debate progresses, and once they realize that their opponent is armed with irrefutatble facts that their own convictions forbid even considering, they become threatened and angry. Emotion takes over. They begin to castigate and slander opponents. They inevitably call them "fools" or "idiots". They attempt to change the subject and to produce straw men and red herrings in a desperate attempt to redirect and restrict the debate to their own terms.
4. Eventually, when they sense that they will have to choose between either admitting facts contrary to their beliefs or instead appearing to be silly or ignorant in the debate, they run away. They throw a fit, pick up their marbles and go home.
Most of the people will never find it in themselves to reconsider their beliefs. I do it all the time, so I can't understand such a reluctance. But it is pervasive. I don't have a problem with anyone believing in anything (as long as it doesn't bother others). I do have a problem with clothing such religious fanatacism in a false veil of science, however.
#39 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 11:03 AM
LOL! Wikipedia. That settles it. No, what you have for evidence is a wild-eyed conspiracy based on disproven canards and repeated false comparisons like no cooling since 1998. What part of hottest decade ever can't you grasp? Only one year counts? LOL! What idiocy. Small minds and all that. Get some remedial education and quit wasting our time bombarding journalism threads with your sad BS. The only one fooled by it is you. LOL.
#40 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 11:04 AM
Hmmm....
Restricting ourselves to the Americans from a partial list of skeptical climate scientists, we find "meritless" professors from:
MIT
Harvard
Princeton
Columbia
University of Virginia
Arizona State University
Colorado State University
University of Rochester
University of Ohio
University of Delaware
Western Washington University
Unversity of Southern California
University of Alabama - Hunstville
University of Alaska - Fairbanks
University of Oklahoma
Unversity of Wisconsin
and
Los Alamos National Lab
We also have to throw in the late former president of the National Academy of Sciences.
Yeah, there's no merit in anything these guys might have to say..
#41 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 11:27 AM
Maybe you should talk to the Christian missionaries Christy and Spencer? In addition, I would look up projection for your own assertions of religiosity. I actually am a scientist with no such affiliations. What militant atheists and believers have in common is absolute certainty of the unknown. What I have is an acceptance of the preponderance the facts.
http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/News_and_Issues/Science_Issues/Climate_change/climate_facts_and_fictions.pdf
#42 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 11:40 AM
That's right there isn't because 3,000 legitimate scientists say that group is wrong factually. Numbers win.
http://logicalscience.com/consensus/consensusD1.htm
#43 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 12:11 PM
Mark writes: I actually am a scientist with no such affiliations
padikiller scoffs: It appears from your blog that you have a B.A. in journalism (2004). You are hardly a scientist. It also appears from a Google search that you have a history of trolling the blogosphere and getting yourself banned.
Whodathunkit?
If indeed you were actually a scientist, you would realize that there is no such thing as "settled science" or "acceptance of facts".
#44 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 12:38 PM
From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , "Philip D. Jones" , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
“...The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't...”
#45 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 12:44 PM
Journalism and environmental biology. Ad hominem anyone. I scoff at you her Troll. I don't see your real name Sport. That makes you the Troll.
But to the point in question;
"Satellites and weather balloons have recorded a substantial cooling in the upper parts of the atmosphere, which is consistent with models of climate change.
Grody and others recently indicated in the Journal of Geophysical Research that much of the earlier inconsistency between the satellite and surface measurements arises from errors in analysing the data from the satellites which can “artificially suppress the temperature trend”."
Which is exactly what Christy had to admit he did. Everyone online has seen these same emails. Independent analysis completely cleared any overarching conspiracy to hide anything. Yet you trot them out as if it was some new revelation. Nothing disproves AGW. Nothing. Fact.
Not everything in science is settled, but some things sure are including humans have caused the rapid increase in the global mean temperature and CO2 traps heat and lasts for 100 years in the atmosphere. To deny that is a fool's errand.
#46 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 01:05 PM
What a surprise. This is your bridge.
Brian
You may get a No-Prize for debating with resident CJR halfwit "Padikiller". I already see that he has, as usual, moved even further away from the original topic and dragged in a half-dozen chestnuts of supposed CJR bias.
By Mrooney at Mon, 2006-11-27 07:06 | login or register to post comments
#47 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 01:10 PM
Mark wrote:Numbers win.
padikiller responds: LOL...
In 1500, scientists nearly unanimously agreed that the Earth was the center of the Universe.
In 1665, scientist unanimously believed that angels kept the planets moving.
In 1800, scientists nearly unanimously believed that magnetism and electricty were distinct forces.
In 1850, scientists nearly unanimously agreed that mechanical energy and thermal energy were distinct.
In 1905, scientists nearly unanimously agreed that time was constant for all observers.
In 1920, scientists (including Einstein) nearly unanimously agreed that the Universe was static and that it was not expanding.
In 1930, scientists nearly unanimously agreed that black holes were merely mathematical curiosities that couldn't exist in the real world.
Let's go on with antimatter, quarks, the Higgs field, supersymmetry, etc...
#48 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 01:14 PM
Mark,
You have a B.A. in journalism from 2004 (at least according to diploma) on your website.
You are uncredentialed and hardly have any right to call yourself a "scientist". You might as well present a chewing gum wrapper.
Your attempt to dismiss the scientific opinion of a former president of the National Academy of Science as "meritless" is simply inane.
#49 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 01:20 PM
Pattern Recognition:
See what I mean?
Mark makes a claim like "no reputable skeptics exist". I provide an extensive list of such people - professors from Ivy League and other prestigious colleges, and all we get from Mark is another dodge. Now it is a "numbers game" - Or, I suppose, a game of "majority rules".
I put up a quote from Phil Jones plainly acknowledging the global cooling from 1998 to 2005 and plainly stating his fear that this information would become public, and Mark runs for the hills. He simply can't acknowledge the reality. He can't deal with reality.
I am not so disadvantaged. I can answer, concede, rebut or refute anything Mark posts, because I don't have a horse in the race like he does. If he makes a valid point, I can concede it but offer counterpoint. He lacks this type of honesty.
He relies on some AGW website to come up with a supposed "consensus" that means what, exactly? Assuming, for the sake of argument, that such a consensus really exists, so what? The mere fact that a majority of scientists hold opinions in similar vein, doesn't validate these opinions. Indeed, advances in science from Copernicus, to Galileo, to Kepler, to Newton, to Maxwell, to Einstein, to Heisenberg, to Hawking have come from people who stood outside of the the "consensus" of their times.
It is clear that AGW is going down in flames. Every day come more admissions and more evidence of fraud and abuse by AGW proponents.
#50 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 01:53 PM
I don't think you've seen my transcript or know how long I've worked for the federal government in various states investigating environmental issues. All you can do is deny the evidence I post on the basis of bias. Well, the whole world is biased against your position. Every agency of every government, scientific professional organizations.
When one of your "experts' actually writes something that stands up to scrutiny, let us know. To this point they haven't. You say AGW web site and I say wingnut denier site. Tit for tat. This does nothing to alter the preponderance of evidence supporting AGW. Fact. The only one going down in flames are Wingerville flamers like you. Numbers have won. 3000 plus expert scientists on my side and 300 crackheads on yours. Tough call.
#51 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 06:17 PM
This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.
Objection:
Global temperatures have been trending down since 1998. Global Warming is over.
Answer:
At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analysis. In fact, it was not just a record year, it blew away the previous record by .2oC. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!) According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino of the century. Choosing that year as a starting point is a classic cherry pick and demonstrates why it is necessary to remove the very chaotic year to year variability that exists (aka: weather) by smoothing out the data. Looking at the CRU's graph below, you can see the result of that smoothing in black.
Clearly 1998 is an anomaly and the trend has not reversed. (Even the apparent levelling at the end is not the real smoothing. The smoothed trend in 2005 depends on all of its surrounding years, including a few years still in the future.) By the way, choosing the CRU analysis is also a cherry pick because NASA has 2005 breaking the 1998 record, though by very little.
Now this is an excusable mistake for average folks who do not need the rigors of statistical analysis in their day jobs, but any scientist in pretty much any field knows that you can not extract any meaningful information about trends in noisy data from single-year end points. This is why it is hard to hear a scientist make this argument and still believe that they are a voice of integrity in this debate, rather it appears more to be an abuse of the trust people would like to place in them as scientists. Bob Carter is such a voice and was the first to trot out this argument in an article in the Daily Telegraph. Since then it has echoed far and wide and has been used by Richard Lindzen as well as a host of sceptic websites.
Interestingly, Bob Carter seems to know what he is doing as he tries to pre-empt objections in his article by basically insinuating that any choice of starting point, (such as 1978), will just be a cherry pick with the opposite motive! But cherry picking is about choosing data for the sole purpose of supporting a pre-conceived conclusion, it is not the simple act of choosing at all, as one must choose some starting point. In the case of his example year, 1978, this is often chosen simply because it is the first year that satellite records of tropospheric temperatures were available.
So what choices are there, what are the reasons for those choices and what are the conclusions we can draw from them?
As just mentioned above, one could chose to examine the last 30 years because that is the period of time where both surface and tropospheric readings were available. We have been experiencing warming of approximately .2oC/decade during this time. It would take a couple of decades trending down before we could say the recent warming did in fact end in 1998.
You could choose 1970 in the NASA GISS analysis as this was the start of the late 20th century warming and as such it is a significant feature of the temperature record. The surface temperature over this period shows .6oC warming.
You could choose 1965 in the CRU analysis as this is when the recent warming started in their record. This record shows around .5oC warming of the smoothed trend line.
You could choose 1880 in the NASA record. This shows .8oC warming.
You could choose 1855 in the CRU record. This shows .8oC warming. Again, with this trend and the above we can not say it is over without many decades more data all indicating cooling.
You could choose to look at the last 500 years in the bore hole record analysis because that is its entire length. This puts today about 1oC above the tempe
#52 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 07:16 PM
Mark pouts: Numbers have won. 3000 plus expert scientists on my side and 300 crackheads on yours
padikiller responds: So anyone who opposes AGW is a "crackhead"?... Including MIT, Harvard and Princeton professors?...
Gotcha, Mark... Yeah, you've got a credible stance there, pal.
Well, Preach on, Brother! Bishop Gore needs your support, or he won't be able to make the lease payments on his houseboat or his Gulfstream.
#53 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 07:21 PM
Well they're smokin' something, that's for sure. Just keep keep thinkin' Butch. That's what you're good at. Worry, not for Al. He bought Google stock at the right time. I'd say he knows how to pick them and he's right about AGW. That's two on you.
#54 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 6 Feb 2010 at 09:04 PM
Another day, another revelation of AGW corruption in the UN. The global warming scandal will go down in history the biggest journalistic and scientific gaffe the world has ever seen.
The London Times is reporting that the claim in the IPCC's report that global warming will result in the reduction of rainfall in Northern Africa by %50 within the next ten years is nothing but an anecdotal discussion of a "potential" effect, written by a Morrocan climatologist on the non peer-reviewed hearsay of others and that was itself never peer-reviewed or otherwise verified.
Read it and weep:
"A LEADING British government scientist has warned the United Nations’ climate panel to tackle its blunders or lose all credibility.
Robert Watson, chief scientist at Defra, the environment ministry, who chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 1997 to 2002, was speaking after more potential inaccuracies emerged in the IPCC’s 2007 benchmark report on global warming.
The most important is a claim that global warming could cut rain-fed north African crop production by up to 50% by 2020, a remarkably short time for such a dramatic change. The claim has been quoted in speeches by Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, and by Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general.
This weekend Professor Chris Field, the new lead author of the IPCC’s climate impacts team, told The Sunday Times that he could find nothing in the report to support the claim. The revelation follows the IPCC’s retraction of a claim that the Himalayan glaciers might all melt by 2035.
The African claims could be even more embarrassing for the IPCC because they appear not only in its report on climate change impacts but, unlike the glaciers claim, are also repeated in its Synthesis Report.
This report is the IPCC’s most politically sensitive publication, distilling its most important science into a form accessible to politicians and policy makers. Its lead authors include Pachauri himself."
So where did this load of crap originiate? From a guy on the payroll of something called "International Institute for Sustainable Development". No agenda there, I'm sure....
The IPCC has been caught red-handed, incorporatig as scientific "findings" press releases from at least three activist organizations now: the World Wildlife Fund, Greenpeace, and now the "International Institute for Sustainable Development".
Funny how you don't see any papers from the American Petroleum Institute (or any other business oriented reasearch institutions) incorporated into the IPCC nonsense, huh?
Of course not only the has head of the IPCC been trotting the globe parroting this nonsense, but so has the Secretary General of the UN!
Thank Goodness for the person who leaked the Climategate emails! That person should get the Nobel peace prize!
#55 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 7 Feb 2010 at 12:24 PM
Follow The Money:
Well, golly gee! Look what else the London Times finaly got around to digging up:
"Worse still, the Times has discovered that Mr. Pachauri's own Energy and Resources Unit, based in New Delhi, has collected millions in grants to study the effects of glacial melting – all on the strength of that bogus glacier claim, which happens to have been endorsed by the same scientist who now runs the unit that got the money. Even so, the IPCC chief is hanging tough. He insists the attacks on him are being orchestrated by companies facing lower profits"
So the fox in charge of the henhouse gets millions of bucks to pander the lies he promotes...
How could the press have stood by and give this kind of fraud a free pass for so many years?
#56 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 7 Feb 2010 at 03:59 PM
You get your news slow and skewed, straight from the Wingerville News. No weeping here. A couple of citation faux pas do not a theory-breaking assumption make unless one is a chump living in Lynchburg. Small town, and potatoes, for small minds.
Here's the real news: http://www.exxonsecrets.org. When you have someone who isn't diagrammed here let us know. Denial has been an industry within industry for years.
#57 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Thu 11 Feb 2010 at 10:45 PM
Mark, I followed your link to "exxonsecrets". Do you honestly read this stuff? It has to be one of the most amateurish productions on the web, just a silly compilation of innuendo and pure paranoia. The central theme is "all companies are evil."
Talk about Wingerville News...
#58 Posted by JLD, CJR on Thu 11 Feb 2010 at 11:34 PM
LOL..
I bet the next IPCC synthesis will adopt the "Exxonsecrets" website as a "scientific finding. After all, they've used Greenpeace and WWF press releases as "facts" in previous reports.
Think of the drowning polar bears!
#59 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 07:45 AM
The Think tank network is real. Do you refute the connections? Even Exxon has moved on now to support the current science though. What does that say about you two? That's some real denial! Sing it man!
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.
Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5oF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5oF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations
could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years.
#60 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 05:41 PM
"The central theme is "all companies are evil." This is a religious assertion and just the sort of projection deniers use all the time. I say look into the mirror and meet thyself.
#61 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 05:45 PM
That works for me. Even a spammer can get it "closer" than a denier. LOL!
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/jan/HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps.html
#62 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 11:03 PM
As the AGW nonsense slowly crumbles away, there remain a hardened core of Believingists who are too drunk on the Kool-Aid to see the light.
Others, however, are reasonable enough to rethink the issue.
It is to these people I direct a few questions:
1. Why do all of the so-called "errors" that are being discovered in the IPCC's reports overstate the predicted adverse effects of global warming? Why do none of these errors understate adverse effects? If these "errors" are truly accidental, then what explains such a one-sided outcome?
2. Why are non-peer-reviewed studies from "green" advocacy groups incorporated as "findings" in the IPCC reports? Why are no such studies from business or industrial advocacy groups included? If the reports are rendered in a scientifically agnostic manner, what explains this one-sided reliance on green advocacy groups?
3.If AGW is supported by science, then what specific model correlates with which specific set of observations? If the analysis is reliable, why is there a need to cherry-pick data from multiple sources and to employ contradictory models to reach a conclusion? If there is no single model that accurately reflects the observations, then how can it be claimed that AGW is validated by the data?
4. What AGW model predicts the lack of warming the Earth has experienced since 1998?
#63 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 13 Feb 2010 at 02:29 PM
1. "Why do none of these errors understate adverse effects?"
Actually they are all understated.
http://climate.nasa.gov/uncertainties/
"Sea level rise. In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used new satellite data to conclude that shrinkage of ice sheets may contribute more to sea level rise than it had thought as recently as 2001."
2. "Why are non-peer-reviewed studies from "green" advocacy groups incorporated as "findings" in the IPCC reports?"
This is a misnomer from a missing citation. The WWF report cited was actually a report from the Woods Hole Research Center. In any event, IPCC doesn't do its own research. It compiles it. Nothing in AGW is dependent on anything from the IPCC.
3. "If there is no single model that accurately reflects the observations, then how can it be claimed that AGW is validated by the data?"
Au contraire. All the models accurately reflect direct observations and measurements. You statement is false on its face. Based on what source?
Take your time. I'll be grading your answers. No curve.
4. "What AGW model predicts the lack of warming the Earth has experienced since 1998?"
False dilemma fallacy.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?NewsID=249
Bonus question: Explain why this time-tested theory is false?
In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized the Earths natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first speculated that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.
#64 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sat 13 Feb 2010 at 04:57 PM
"If the response of the Earth in the past is analogous to the temperature increase caused by greenhouse gases... it could lend credence to this counterintuitive notion of a La Nina response to global warming," said Professor [Michael] Mann.
But, he added, that the Earth's response to greenhouse-gas-induced global warming might be more complex than "natural" warming.
"What this gives us is an independent reality check," said Professor Mann.
"There is still a fair amount of divergence among the various models - in terms of how El Nino changes in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8381317.stm
#65 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 13 Feb 2010 at 07:01 PM
The IPCC baloney is starting to rot quickly now:
World may not be warming, say scientists
"Terry Mills, professor of applied statistics and econometrics at Loughborough University, looked at the same data as the IPCC. He found that the warming trend it reported over the past 30 years or so was just as likely to be due to random fluctuations as to the impacts of greenhouse gases. Mills’s findings are to be published in Climatic Change, an environmental journal."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7026317.ece
#66 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 13 Feb 2010 at 08:03 PM
Phil Jones, scientist at the center of "Climategate", admits that there has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm
So much for Al Gore's "hockey stick" graph....
The wheels are falling of the AGW train left and right. I wouldn't be buying up carbon credits right now if I were you...
#67 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 10:43 AM
El Nino and its effects are being studied and much is known. In no way does El Nino and La Nina discount, let alone negate AGW. Improper assumption from the Mann answer. It did explaim your hottest year of 1998 inpart, but then 2005 was the hottest so you're wrong on that too. Either or fallacy. Grade F.
Times of London isn't a reliable scientific publication. One economist (a social science) can do nothing to counter thousands of hard science publications. Nixt. Grade F.
False. Jones said no such thing. Read the transcript. Grade F.
I say sign up for summer school sport. You;re destined to repeat 10th grade at this rate.
#68 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 05:24 PM
Alarmists cut from Climategate email review panel:
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Top-Scots-scientist-at-centre.6069702.jp
Already, two of the members of the "independent" review panel have been forced to resign because of their Believingist ways...
#69 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 07:36 PM
Phil Jones - Earth's warming since 1995 not statistically significant. Clobal cooling since 2002 not significant either.
BBC - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Phil Jones -- Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
BBC - Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
Phil Jones - No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.
#70 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 07:42 PM
IPCC lead author says temperature record does not support global warming claim - data misinterpreted, skewed by local factors
“The temperature records cannot be relied on as indicators of global change,” said John Christy, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a former lead author on the IPCC.
The doubts of Christy and a number of other researchers focus on the thousands of weather stations around the world, which have been used to collect temperature data over the past 150 years.
These stations, they believe, have been seriously compromised by factors such as urbanisation, changes in land use and, in many cases, being moved from site to site.
Christy has published research papers looking at these effects in three different regions: east Africa, and the American states of California and Alabama.
“The story is the same for each one,” he said. “The popular data sets show a lot of warming but the apparent temperature rise was actually caused by local factors affecting the weather stations, such as land development.”
#71 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 07:47 PM
Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
Jones: No.
There's a reason Christy is a former author. Hiss assertions are demonstrably false. Grade F.
#72 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 08:08 PM
BBC - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Phil Jones -- Yes
#73 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 08:40 PM
Yet that doesn't mean what you think, only according to your strawman gotcha fallacy. He's talking about long datasets. In that context the rise is rapid and pronounced. This kind of misunderstanding by the scientifically illiterate is common. Alas, the ignorant are always the last to know. Pity, that.
#74 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 09:04 PM
When you have something new and not covered as cheap accusations based on nothing as a faux smear in right wing news properties owned by Rupert Murdoch, or misread from the BBC, or listed here, let us know. This is all old news and totally disproven. It's the fodder of hacks and pit bull rabble attacks on legitimate researchers. Not an original thought in the bunch, just the same old tired wingnut talking points. Yawn. So vapid and boring.
http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics/
Stages of Denial
There's nothing happening
Inadequate evidence
There is no evidence
One record year is not global warming
The temperature record is simply unreliable
One hundred years is not enough
Glaciers have always grown and receded
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
Mauna Loa is a volcano
The scientists aren't even sure
Contradictory evidence
It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
Antarctic ice is growing
The satellites show cooling
What about mid-century cooling?
Global warming stopped in 1998
But the glaciers are not melting
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
Some sites show cooling
No consensus
Global warming is a hoax
There is no consensus
Position statements hide debate
Consensus is collusion
Peiser refuted Oreskes
We don't know why it's happening
Models don't work
We cannot trust unproven computer models
The models don't have clouds
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Prediction is impossible
We can't even predict the weather next week
Chaotic systems are not predictable
We can't be sure
Hansen has been wrong before
If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
The scientists aren't even sure
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Climate change is natural
It happened before
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
Greenland used to be green
Global warming is nothing new!
The hockey stick is broken
Vineland was full of grapes
It's part of a natural change
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Climate is always changing
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
The CO2 rise is natural
We are just recovering from the LIA
It's not caused by CO2
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 doesn't lead, it lags
What about mid-century cooling?
Geological history does not support CO2's importance
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
It's the sun, stupid
Climate change is not bad
The effects are good
What's wrong with warmer weather?
The effects are minor
Change is normal
Climate change can't be stopped
Too late
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
It's someone else's problem
Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven't?
The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
Economically infeasible
Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
Scientific Topics
Temperature
There is no evidence
The temperature record is simply unreliable
One hundred years is not enough
Current global warming is just p
#75 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 09:22 PM
From: Phil Jones
To: John Christy
Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.
#76 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 09:24 PM
Perhaps you've never heard of context? One hot year is one hot year. 1998 which is the second hottest to 2005. Several hot years, ten to be exact, are a hot decade. Several hot decades are a trend. It's like the old saw, a billion here, a billion they and pretty soon we're talking real money. The sad part is apparently you are too stupid to determine that? All denialists are.
#77 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sun 14 Feb 2010 at 10:30 PM
“This trend (0.12 C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level.
The positive trend is quite close to the significance level.”
Note that the trend is positive. Note that it is quite close to the 95 per cent significance level.
#78 Posted by Mark York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 12:35 AM
Mark A. York, the wannabe "scientist" with a B.A. in journalism from a so-ao California public school , gives us a new standard for "scientific significance": Note that it [the statistically insignificant warming of the Earth since 1995] is quite close to the 95 per cent significance level.
padikiller concedes: Well then... There we have it, people! "Quite close" to being scientifically meaningful? Well that as good as gospel!
No less an authority than Mark A. York has defined the new scientific standard!
Henceforth, all Believingist positions shall be accepted without reservation if it can be shown that the positions so taken are "quite close" to being actually scientifically significant..
What the Hell... Why be so stingy?... Let's just say that any Believingist position that is "in the neighborhood" to scientific significance shall be deemed to be the Gospel Truth.
Preach on it, Brother York! We are with you Brother!
#79 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 01:33 AM
Phil Jones, in his own words
"Of course, if the MWP [Medeival Warm Period] was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented."
#80 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 09:02 AM
My standards, and credentials, are light years higher than some anonymous troll from Lunchburg, Virginia who hasn't the education of Jethro Bodine, and a Falwellian Believer in the Gospel of Wingnut. Don't try that credential ad hom with me because you are decidedly outgunned. Your first words are as stupid as your last. Now there's a 100 percent level of confidence.
There are no absolutes in science. Absolutism is a fallacy. Even fools know that. Well, some of them might. You are not among them.
Try this preacher.
KERRY EMANUEL
Climate changes are proven fact
By Kerry Emanuel
February 15, 2010
E-mail|Print|Reprints|Yahoo! Buzz|ShareThis Text size – +
OUTSIDE SCIENTIFIC forums, contemporary discussions of the phenomenon of global warming are now so heated that one wonders whether they are contributing to the phenomenon itself.
With all the interest in alleged misdeeds of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and hacked email exchanges among climate scientists, it is easy to lose track of the compelling strands of scientific evidence that have led almost all climate scientists to conclude that mankind is altering climate in potentially dangerous ways. Recent suggestions by gubernatorial candidate Charles Baker that the scientific community is split on this issue have unfortunately added fuel to this largely manufactured debate.
A few essential points are undisputed among climate scientists. First, the surface temperature of the Earth is roughly 60 F higher than it would otherwise be thanks to a few greenhouse gasses that collectively make up only about 3 percent of the mass of our atmosphere.
Second, the concentrations of the two most important long-lived greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, have been increasing since the dawn of the industrial era; carbon dioxide alone has increased by about 40 percent. These increases have been brought about by fossil fuel combustion and changes in land use.
Third, in the absence of any feedbacks except for temperature itself, doubling carbon dioxide would increase the global average surface temperature by about 1.8 F. And fourth, global temperatures have been rising for roughly the past century and have so far increased by about 1.4 F. The rate of rise of surface temperature is consistent with predictions of human-caused global warming that date back to the 19th century and is larger than any natural change we have been able to discern for at least the past 1,000 years.
Disputes within climate science concern the nature and magnitude of feedback processes involving clouds and water vapor, uncertainties about the rate at which the oceans take up heat and carbon dioxide, the effects of air pollution, and the nature and importance of climate change effects such as rising sea level, increasing acidity of the ocean, and the incidence of weather hazards such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves. These uncertainties are reflected in divergent predictions of climate change made by computer models. For example, current models predict that a doubling of carbon dioxide should result in global mean temperature increases of anywhere from 2.5 to 7.5 F.
The uncertainties in the models, theory, and observations of climate change and associated risks and the sheer complexity of the problem provide many rounds of ammunition for the agenda-driven, be they apocalyptic or denialist. For the lawyerly, with the ability and will to cherry-pick the evidence, there is much ripe fruit to hurl in the increasingly heated climate wars of our generation.
But when the dust settles, what we are left with is the evidence. And, in spite of all its complexity and uncertainties, we should not lose track of the simple fact that theory, actual observations of the planet, and complex models - however imperfect each is in isolation - all point to ongoing, potentially dangerous human alteration
#81 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 02:03 PM
"Of course, if the MWP [Medeival Warm Period] was shown to be global in extent..."
Big "If," and still not the case.
On its website, NOAA has a wide selection of proxy studies, accompanied by the data on which they are based. Specifically, they have this to say on the MWP:
"The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today, however, has turned out to be incorrect."
Alas for deniers, if ifs and buts were beer and nuts we'd all have a helluva good time. As it stands though, all we have is a bunch of cackling Cuckoos flying around the Web hacking emails that say nothing significant and crapping feathers all over the place.
#82 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 02:24 PM
"We are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future" -- Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT and lead IPCC author
Lindzen is a recipient of the American Meteorological Society's Meisinger and Charney Awards, American Geophysical Union's Macelwane Medal, and the Leo Prize from the Wallin Foundation in Goteborg, Sweden. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), and the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters, and was named Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Meteorological Society. He is a corresponding member of the NAS Committee on Human Rights, and a member of the United States National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. He was a consultant to the Global Modeling and Simulation Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
#83 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 02:36 PM
“According to Professor Phil Jones, the period 1975-2009 (35 years) had a stastically significant temperature rise of 0.161 degrees.
That represents 0.46 degree per century, which will have no substantial negative effect on the climate of the planet.”
Gee. You found Lindzen. Stop the presses! Former on everything but MIT. Meteorologists i e. weathermen who can't accurately predict the weather, are not climatologists. Lindzen's work is completely discredited. He's also a shill for the think tanks and taken oil funding. You're even farther behind the curve than most deniers.
I know the scientists at JPL. He isn't one of them.
#84 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 04:43 PM
Correction:
The trend for 1975-2009 is 0.161 degrees per decade. That’s 1.61 degrees per century!
#85 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 04:51 PM
"We are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future"
Oh yes we are and it can be done at home.
http://BartonPaulLevenson.com/Correlation.html
#86 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 05:07 PM
"Barton Paul Levenson (May 9, 1960–present) is an American Writer of science fiction, fantasy and the macabre"...
LOL... I've got to let this one speak for itself.
#87 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 05:50 PM
Please do. He has a physics degree and some people who agree with him.
These.
http://www.climate.gov/
You could always try to disprove the math, but then that could be tough for a dropout anonymous troll living at home in his parents' basement in Lynchburg wouldn't it?
I guess that Ad Hom based on job scope would mean you discount Michael Crichton then? Good. LOL indeed!
#88 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 10:14 PM
There is no small irony in musings of man who immediately after penning a sentence containing the phrase "dropout anonymous troll" stands on the soap box to deliver a holier-than-thou castigation regarding the use of ad hominem in argument..
It's better than the circus.
Well Preach on, Brother York! You'd fit right in there in Lynchburg!
#89 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 15 Feb 2010 at 10:54 PM
14 Year Cooling trend in Anartica
If the polar bears are doomed, it appears that the penguins will be alright:
"Our 14-year continuous weather station record from the shore of Lake Hoare reveals that seasonally averaged surface air temperature has decreased by 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade," they write. "The temperature decrease is most pronounced in summer and autumn. Continental cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change."
The findings are puzzling because many climate models indicate that the Polar regions should serve as bellwethers for any global warming trend, responding first and most rapidly to an increase in temperatures. An ice sheet many kilometers thick in places perpetually covers almost all of Antarctica.
Temperature anomalies also exist in Greenland, the largest ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, with cooling in the interior concurrent with warming at the coast.
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20020015034521data_trunc_sys.shtml
NOTE: Joking aside, the importance of this finding should not be ignored. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but it is much weaker than water vapor. However, CO2 is more evenly distributed in the atmosphere than water vapor. Warm areas of the globe hold much more atmospheric water vapor than cold areas because warm air holds exponentially more water vapor than cool air. There is much more water vapor in the air on a 90 degree day at 40% humidity than there is on a 0 degree day at 100% humidity. Thus, the AGW models predict that global warming should be most pronouced in the coldest and driest areas of the globe (like in continental Antartica) where the CO2 to water vapor ratio is highest. However, this study proves that exactly the opposite is true.
#90 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 16 Feb 2010 at 07:47 AM
Fact check: You're an anonymous troll with apparently scant, and specious, educational evidence. I'm a college graduate and US government employee in a scientific discipline. Pony up or shut up.
Temperature anomalies are normal. Over all they're rising. The Antarctic is a continent. The north pole a frozen ocean. Less frozen than decades ago. Uniformity is not a requirement. Thinking so is a lack of education. False dilemma fallacy.
Thus it is with the old and tired water vapor/ CO2 false comparison. It's the molecular competition, stupid. CO2 last for 100 years or more in the troposphere forcing the greenhouse effect, and water vapor reacts in a positive feedback warming things further. H2O lasts a few days aloft. You have a cart/horse problem there sonny.
Grade F.
Looks like another wingnut fantasy has fallen. Poor sceptics.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf
Abstract
Recent photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has led to questions regarding the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). To evaluate the potential impact of poor siting/instrument exposure on CONUS temperatures, trends derived from poor and well-sited USHCN stations were compared. Results indicate that there is a mean bias associated with poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites; however, this bias is consistent with previously documented changes associated with the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years. Moreover, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes have led to an artificial negative (“cool”) bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive (“warm”) bias in minimum temperatures. These results underscore the need to consider all changes in observation practice when determining the impacts of siting irregularities. Further, the influence of non-standard siting on temperature trends can only be quantified through an analysis of the data. Adjustments applied to USHCN Version 2 data largely account for the impact of instrument and siting changes, although a small overall residual negative (“cool”) bias appears to remain in the adjusted maximum temperature series. Nevertheless, the adjusted USHCN temperatures are extremely well aligned with recent measurements from instruments whose exposure characteristics meet the highest standards for climate monitoring. In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting.
#91 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 16 Feb 2010 at 01:20 PM
You may want to look at more recent stories about studies. Or go straight to the studies.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040222.shtml
Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE
I. Velicogna
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
We use monthly measurements of time-variable gravity from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission to determine the ice mass-loss for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the period between April 2002 and February 2009. We find that during this time period the mass loss of the ice sheets is not a constant, but accelerating with time, i.e., that the GRACE observations are better represented by a quadratic trend than by a linear one, implying that the ice sheets contribution to sea level becomes larger with time. In Greenland, the mass loss increased from 137 Gt/yr in 2002–2003 to 286 Gt/yr in 2007–2009, i.e., an acceleration of −30 ± 11 Gt/yr2 in 2002–2009. In Antarctica the mass loss increased from 104 Gt/yr in 2002–2006 to 246 Gt/yr in 2006–2009, i.e., an acceleration of −26 ± 14 Gt/yr2 in 2002–2009. The observed acceleration in ice sheet mass loss helps reconcile GRACE ice mass estimates obtained for different time periods.
Received 28 July 2009; accepted 3 September 2009; published 13 October 2009.
Correction: while CO2 does out compete H20 in time aloft and heat trapping capacity once released i.e. burned by your car, it's the molecular "compilation" that makes this a reality.
#92 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 16 Feb 2010 at 01:38 PM
Mark York wrote: it's the molecular "compilation" that makes this a reality.
padikiller scratches his head: ????????????
What the hell is a "molecular compilation"? Is like an "atomic medley"? Or perhaps a "crystalline chorus"?
I take it back about your [lack of] credentials, Mark... Indeed your obvious scientific acumen places you among the top tier of U.S. Government scientists.
#93 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 16 Feb 2010 at 02:18 PM
AGW "consensus" getting a little foggy
A story in today’s Daily Telegraph proclaims, “Fog over San Francisco thins by a third due to climate change.”
It refers to research published in PNAS by Dr James Johnstone of the University of California, which claims that coastal fog DECREASED over the 20th century by a third due to the temperature difference between the interior and the coast declining.
A quick Google search found that another California prof, Robert Bornstein of San Jose University, published research only last year in the Journal of Climate, which claimed that global warming was heating the interior of California, but not the coast, leading to an INCREASE in the amount of coastal fog.
So there you have it: climate change is responsible for both an increase and a decrease in the amount of coastal fog in San Francisco!
#94 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 16 Feb 2010 at 04:09 PM
You scratch your head because your ignorance bubble is rising to the surface wanting to get out. Alas it has yet again. It's called chemistry. Chemical molecular composition of CO2 and the way it reacts in the atmosphere.
Causes of local fog may be debatable. This is distribution of water vapor. The reaction of CO2 in the atmosphere isn't. It takes a real moron to debate chemistry. Thanks for the glimpse into the medieval mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Radiative-forcings.svg
http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/globalwarmA5.html
Greenhouse Gases Absorb Infrared Radiation
Radiation from the sun is absorbed by the earth as radiant visible light. You feel this effect on a sunny day when you stand in the sunshine vs. the shade. Eventually, the heat from the earth is re-emitted into the atmosphere as infrared radiation (IR). As an example, infrared radiation is what you can feel and see (slightly) as the red hot burner of an electric stove. The different types of electromagnetic radiation are shown in the graphic on the left.
Certain gases in the atmosphere have the property of absorbing infrared radiation. Oxygen and nitrogen the major gases in the atmosphere do not have this property. The infrared radiation strikes a molecule such as carbon dioxide and causes the bonds to bend and vibrate - this is called the absorption of IR energy. The molecule gains kinetic energy by this absorption of IR radiation. This extra kinetic energy may then be transmitted to other molecules such as oxygen and nitrogen and causes a general heating of the atmosphere. Analogy: Think of a partially stretched "toy slinky" - if you bump the slinky, the energy of the bump is absorbed by the vibrations in the slinky.
#95 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 02:18 PM
Padikiller reiterates: What the hell is a "molecular c-o-m-p-i-l-a-t-i-o-n"?
I understand what is meant by the "molecular c-o-m-p-o-s-i-t-i-o-n" of CO2... Namely one C (carbon) atom and two atoms of O's (oxygen).
Does this word "compilation" have a particular scientific meaning among you "U.S. Government scientist-types"? Or instead did your "scientific" lexicon momentarily succumb to the humble limits of its implausible credentials?
We await elucidation, Dr. York.
#96 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 04:31 PM
Dodge and weave and dodge and weave. Irrelevant, Watson. A molecule reacts the way is does regardless of prose label. The compilation of your fallacies about science, however, amounts to the knowledge base of a giant hill of beans. Ignorance is a terrible thing. Willful ignorance is worse. Get to a junior college stat. After you get a GED of course. First things first.
#97 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 11:21 PM
Here's a start.
http://know.climateofconcern.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=article&id=132
#98 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 11:29 PM
Padikiller reiterates (for the third time): What the hell is a "molecular c-o-m-p-i-l-a-t-i-o-n", Dr. York?
After all, you wrote "Correction: while CO2 does out compete H20 in time aloft and heat trapping capacity once released i.e. burned by your car, it's the molecular "compilation" that makes this a reality."
I understand what is meant by the "molecular c-o-m-p-o-s-i-t-i-o-n" of CO2... Namely one C (carbon) atom and two atoms of O's (oxygen). But what did you mean by your words
Does this word "compilation" have a particular scientific meaning among you "U.S. Government scientist-types"? Or instead did your "scientific" lexicon momentarily succumb to the humble limits of its implausible credentials?
We await elucidation, Dr. York.
#99 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Wed 17 Feb 2010 at 11:41 PM
Irrelevant question. Cherry pick quote, the denier trademark. No you don't know what the composition of CO2 does. You think it behaves no differently than H2O. Incorrect. Playing word games won't hide your lack of basic understanding.
First, the main findings of IPCC over the years, have they been seriously cast in doubt? No….
On balance if you look at all the things the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body of experts convened by the United Nations to advise governments in responding to global warming] has been doing over the last number of years, they were trying very hard to put in all the peer-reviewed serious stuff. I’ve actually always felt that they were taking a somewhat conservative stand on many issues and for justifiable reasons….
They should be able to say that this is serious science and take a somewhat conservative view. If you look at the climate sceptics, I would have to say honestly, what standard are they being held to? It’s very asymmetric. They get to say anything they want. In the end, the core of science is deeply self checking.
That’s Energy Secretary Steven Chu in his new interview with the Financial Times (regis. req’d).
#100 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 04:44 PM
Dr. York, U.S. Government Scientist-type wrote: No you don't know what the composition of CO2 does. You think it behaves no differently than H2O
padkiller rebuts: Actually, Professor York, I do understand the difference between water and carbon dioxide.
Water vapor is a much more effective greenhouse gas than CO2, and there is LOT more water vapor in the atmosphere than there is CO2.
We need some sort of water sequestration program.
#101 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 05:56 PM
This pretty much sums up your delusion in general.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
But to your answer. Incorrect! Irrelevant comparison. CO2 is a forcing. H2O is a positive feedback. There is more water vapor but it stays aloft only for a few days, whereas CO2 once released stays aloft of 100's of years trapping heat and moving the water around. Water recycles but CO2 does not. It stays put magnifying the greenhouse effect. It's all in the molecule buddy. Anyone with a sixth grade education knows this Jethro, Why don't you?
And for the record, I'm not a professor, have a doctorate, nor have I ever claimed to have.
#102 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Thu 18 Feb 2010 at 11:03 PM
Dr. York misstates the reality : "There is more water vapor but it stays aloft only for a few days, whereas CO2 once released stays aloft of 100's of years trapping heat and moving the water around"
padikiller schools: At any given instant, 1 percent of the atmosphere is water vapor, while 0.038 percent of the atmospher is C02. There is about 25 times more water vapor in the air than CO2.
If you believe the AGW people, the greenhouse effect of CO2 is between 9–26% of the total greenhouse effect, while the greenhouse effect of water contributes 36–72% total.
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf
The HIGHEST estimates (from AGW proponents) put CO2's greenhouse contribution at 26% while the LOWEST estimate put's water's greenhouse contribution at 36 percent.
Thus, using the highest greenhouse estimate for CO2, and the lowest estimate for water, we find that water is still a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2.
If we go the other way, then water vapor has 8 times the greenhouse effect of CO2.
Sure, any particular molecule of water vapor only stays in the atmosphere for a few days before it precipitates, but it is replaced by another molecule that has evaporated.
That's why it's called the hydrological C-Y-C-L-E, Professor York.
#103 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 08:08 AM
York rebuffs:
Water Vapour as a positive feedback
As water vapour is directly related to temperature, it's also a positive feedback - in fact, the largest positive feedback in the climate system (Soden 2005). As temperature rises, evaporation increases and more water vapour accumulates in the atmosphere. As a greenhouse gas, the water absorbs more heat, further warming the air and causing more evaporation.
How does water vapour fit in with CO2 emissions? When CO2 is added to the atmosphere, as a greenhouse gas it has a warming effect. This causes more water to evaporate and warm the air more to a higher (more or less) stabilized level. So CO2 warming has an amplified effect, beyond a purely CO2 effect.
How much does water vapour amplify CO2 warming? Without any feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would warm the globe around 1°C. Taken on its own, water vapour feedback roughly doubles the amount of CO2 warming. When other feedbacks are included (eg - loss of albedo due to melting ice), the total warming from a doubling of CO2 is around 3°C (Held 2000).
#104 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 11:34 AM
You misread Trenberth et al. Fallacy of the false comparison.
False Comparison or Analogy
"This is an argument that contains a contextual error or a neglected aspect. It occurs when we assume that two things that are alike in one specific way are alike in other ways. "Skis and roller skates are both strapped on your feet. Skis help you travel over snow efficiently, so roller skates would help you travel efficiently over snow."
What the science says...
"While there are many drivers of climate, CO2 is the most dominant radiative forcing and is increasing faster than any other forcing."
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/39/15248.full.pdf
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content
Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m2 per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated ‘‘fingerprint’’ pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually sug- gest that this fingerprint ‘‘match’’ is primarily due to human- caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth’s atmosphere.
climate change climate modeling detection and attribution water vapor
#105 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Fri 19 Feb 2010 at 11:54 AM
Institute of Physics Nails Climategate Fraudsters in Report to Parliament - Slams AGW Pseudoscience
"The Institute of Physics is a scientific charity devoted to increasing the practice, understanding and application of physics. It has a worldwide membership of over 36,000 and is a leading communicator of physics-related science to all audiences, from specialists through to government and the general public. Its publishing company, IOP Publishing, is a world leader in scientific publishing and the electronic dissemination of physics...
1. The Institute is concerned that, unless the disclosed [Climategate] e-mails are proved to be forgeries or adaptations, worrying implications arise for the integrity of scientific research in this field and for the credibility of the scientific method as practised in this context.
2. The CRU e-mails as published on the internet provide prima facie evidence of determined and co-ordinated refusals to comply with honourable scientific traditions and freedom of information law. The principle that scientists should be willing to expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by others, which requires the open exchange of data, procedures and materials, is vital. The lack of compliance has been confirmed by the findings of the Information Commissioner. This extends well beyond the CRU itself - most of the e-mails were exchanged with researchers in a number of other international institutions who are also involved in the formulation of the IPCC's conclusions on climate change.
3. It is important to recognise that there are two completely different categories of data set that are involved in the CRU e-mail exchanges:
· those compiled from direct instrumental measurements of land and ocean surface temperatures such as the CRU, GISS and NOAA data sets; and
· historic temperature reconstructions from measurements of 'proxies', for example, tree-rings.
4. The second category relating to proxy reconstructions are the basis for the conclusion that 20th century warming is unprecedented. Published reconstructions may represent only a part of the raw data available and may be sensitive to the choices made and the statistical techniques used. Different choices, omissions or statistical processes may lead to different conclusions. [padikiller notes: This is the cherrypicking that Dr. York says didn't happen] This possibility was evidently the reason behind some of the (rejected) requests for further information.
5. The e-mails reveal doubts as to the reliability of some of the reconstructions and raise questions as to the way in which they have been represented; for example, the apparent suppression, in graphics widely used by the IPCC, of proxy results for recent decades that do not agree with contemporary instrumental temperature measurements.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm
The stupid Gorian AGW nonsense is finally falling apart. Thank goodness!
#106 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 12:00 PM
"The Institute of Physics is a scientific charity..."
The emails blah blah blah...
Right a charity funded by organizations like these people. That explains their confusion over the physical reality.
They like the moolah.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Global_warming_skeptics
#107 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 01:24 PM
Dr. York, B.A, Super-Secret U.S. Government Scientist-Type wrote: "blah blah blah"
padikiller scoffs: So now the vast Haliburton/Big Tobacco/Big Oil corporate conspiracy has paid off the 36,000 members of the Institute of Physics!.... Professor York has exposed yet another tool of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy!...
Damn! Even the Queen of England is in on it!...
http://www.iop.org/aboutus/Royal_Charter/file_6041.pdf
#108 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 02:05 PM
Why is it you people pass around the same newsflashes about mindless accusations. Orders from the hive-master? Such sheep.
July 2006, London: Starpoint Adaptive Optics
becomes a Business Affiliate of the Institute of Physics.
The IoP's Business Affiliates Network brings together organisations of all sectors that engage with physics or employ physics-trained staff. Membership of the network provides a unique forum for companies to interact with like-minded organisations, influence the focus of the Institute's activities and participate in initiatives promoting the contribution that physics and physics-training make to innovation, wealth creation and the quality of life.
It's private business group like the Chamber of Commerce. Any pack of nitwits can join. They aren't too public about the "statement" on the Web site either. I doubt the Queen, and certainly not Prince Philip knows.
I scoff at the naivete of denialists. You know what Barnum said.
#109 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 02:27 PM
They're singing a different tune here in the light of day.
http://www.iop.org/Media/Press%20Releases/press_38339.html
Physicists' message to world leaders in Copenhagen
Institute of Physics Press Release
PR64 (09)
Mon, 7 December 2009
As some of the most powerful politicians in the world gather in Copenhagen, the Institute of Physics (IOP) publishes a physics briefing note to help all understand the science behind climate change.
Professor Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell. President of the IOP, said, "I hope world leaders will appreciate the major contribution science can make to our understanding of all aspects of global change, including climate change. Science can improve our predictions of what might happen; physics can provide critical, objective analysis of new schemes. Physics along with technology can develop new and more efficient energy sources, and find ways of minimising waste (of all kinds).
"Climate models are the best tool we have available for understanding changes in climate, and from these models it seems we are entering an unprecedentedly difficult period for the human race. Science can diagnose the problem and it can work to remedy it, but it can do neither without support from world leaders."
Jocelyn's comments accompany the publication of a briefing note from IOP which summarises advances in our understanding of the climate and the work being done to create a low-carbon energy infrastructure, and includes comment from some of the UK's leading climate experts.
On the scale of the challenge we face, Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, told IOP, "What we really need now is an intensive international programme of research into low-carbon and energy efficient options. It would be great to see the world's top scientists and engineers collaborating on this kind of programme in the way they have, say, on the design and construction of the Large Hadron Collider."
On the underpinning nature of physics in efforts to produce low-carbon energy, Peter Hodgson, the chair of IOP's Environmental Physics Group, said, "Whether through the basic understanding of how light is converted into electricity in a solar panel, or by underpinning the materials science and engineering needed to build wind and marine energy infrastructure, low-carbon energy generation technologies all depend on physics and physicists for their development as effective and efficient sources of energy."
ENDS
Notes to editors:
Contact
1. For the full policy briefing note or to contact Professor Joanna Haigh, Professor of Atmospheric Physics and Head of Physics at Imperial College London, please contact IOP Press Officer, Joe Winters:
Tel: 020 7470 4815
Mobile: 07946 321473
E-mail: joseph.winters@iop.org
#110 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 02:40 PM
Thank goodness that the Institute of has seen the light ver the last three months and is finally helping to put an end to the AGW nonsense.
#111 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 04:07 PM
There will be no end to it. Any pack of fools can testify before Parliament. Your tiny minority will be mowed down by changes you can do little to stop. You'll buy what's available. The market will dictate your choices.
Good-bye Hummer!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/24/AR2010022405609.html
#112 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 04:24 PM
I'm thinking that Mark York and Padikiller are the same poster and this entire argument is happening within this one mind. It is bizarre!
#113 Posted by WWRSCUSA, CJR on Sat 27 Feb 2010 at 05:49 PM
I don't believe "thinking" is a proper choice of verbs to describe the particular mental process you are experiencing. However, "bizarre" is undoubtedly an apt choice of adjectives.
#114 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 28 Feb 2010 at 01:16 AM
It's a bizarre undertaking to refute a climate denier, since they have no ability to learn, and only seek to sell their flawed logic and political agenda by controlling the conversation with disinformation. In order to present relevant refutations to this garbage, I added viable links to the real proof for any reader on the fence to look at and determine on their own.
#115 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Sun 28 Feb 2010 at 01:03 PM