Last September, CJR approached me to write an article for a special package on health and science journalism in the January/February issue. The subject: “one of the more significant trends in science journalism in the last 20 years — a shift in focus toward personal health news, especially diet and fitness.” And the premise: “the public craves simple answers and immediate solutions and the press indulges those unreasonable expectations.”
I responded that the assignment was interesting, particularly so “since I’m part of that trend and there are certainly journalists (and researchers) out there, including some old friends, who would say I’m pandering to the public’s desire to have easy answers.” Ultimately I turned it down, though, not for lack of interest but lack of time. Instead, I suggested they offer the story to my good friend David Freedman, who accepted.
The result was Dave’s cover article, “Survival of the Wrongest,” which oddly enough singled out my work, along with that of The New York Times’s Tara Parker Pope, as examples of health journalism gone awry. Both articles were on obesity and the implication was that Parker Pope and I might be, at least in these cases, sacrificing the tenets of good journalism for the benefits of promoting a favored theory that bucks conventional wisdom.
Two journalistic questions were raised by my friend Dave’s article that are worth addressing, the second admittedly more critical than the first:
1) Should we add to the multitude of reasons why a freelancer should never turn down an assignment, the possibility that the friend whom you recommend instead (or the writer the editors choose independently) will publicly disparage your own work in the subsequent article?
2) Considering that most of what is published in the medical journals is not nearly as meaningful or even correct as we might like to believe—a problem that Dave does such a good job of addressing—how should those of us who cover these fields report on these issues? This question embraces both reporting on deadline for tomorrow morning’s paper and the kind of long interpretive/investigative articles that Dave was criticizing.
I wrote about this problem 14 years ago (“Telling time by the second hand,” in Technology Review) and it was not particularly new then. At the time, I quoted the philosopher of science John Ziman describing the front-line of research— where those of us covering science and medicine make our living—as a place where reliable knowledge is hard to come by and “controversy, conjecture, contradiction, and confusion are rife.” Using physics as an example, Ziman estimated that 90 percent of the science in the journals was probably wrong, compared to only ten percent in the undergraduate textbooks. (The job of science, he suggested, was to separate the wheat of the textbooks from the chaff in the journals.) Dave uses the recent research of John Ioannidis of Stanford to estimate that two-thirds of the papers in the medical journals are unreliable, although that’s only the “top medical journals” and we can assume the lesser journals, of which there are multitudes, have a batting average considerably worse.
With these numbers in mind, as Dave says, “a reporter who accurately reports findings is probably transmitting wrong findings.” This issue is the subject of the bulk of Dave’s article and it should engender the most consensus, at least in theory if not necessarily in practice: If we have to cover these articles at all, the liberal use of caveats and conditions, and context (the proportion of articles on the subject that came to different conclusions in the past) would be an excellent idea. As I noted in my 1998 essay, the very first reports on any new finding—the ones most likely to get media attention—were also the ones most likely to be wrong. This is the nature of science. It is fundamentally at odds with what we do in journalism, whether personal health or not, and we have to always keep it in mind.

ALL journalists who presume to "cover" obesity would be well-served to read Abigail Saguy's excellent book: http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/in-a-new-book-ucla-sociologist-241999.aspx
#1 Posted by Harry Minot, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 01:10 PM
Great piece, even if it was dissatisfaction with my piece that inspired it.
To the charge that I was kind of a jerk in criticizing the work of my friend Gary Taubes in an article that he helped send my way, I plead guilty.
In all this thoughtful analysis of the conflicting claims regarding the obesity crisis, science journalists might feel worse off than before in trying to help readers find a path to obtaining and maintaining a healthy weight. Consider this approach: Tell your readers to ignore everything that you and other science journalists and scientists tell them about the subject. Instead, advise your readers to do this: First, seek out people who have lost weight and kept it off for years. Next, ask them how they did it. If you can't find any such people, Parker-Pope is probably right. If you find some and they tell you all they did was cut out carbs and the weight just came off and stayed off and they're happy eating this way the rest of their lives, then Gary is probably right. If you find some and they tell you they changed their lifestyles in a number of ways, and now eat a sensible, balanced diet that they carefully track and get moderate daily exercise and enlist the support of friends, family and fellow weightlosers, then I'm probably right.
#2 Posted by David H. Freedman, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 04:11 PM
Taubes' letter is a great discussion of the problem.
It's unclear to me why anyone might think that only one of you (3) can be correct. The problem clearly IS intractable at a societal scale. But that doesn't mean there can never be solutions. Nor should we judge the difficulty of the problem on the basis of the success or failure of a handful of individuals. It's my opinion (a fourth?) that what's brought this on is not profound changes in the character of individuals. We didn't all become gluttonous sloths in 30 years any more than we all suddenly experienced genetic mutations that made us fat.
The difference between now and 1970 is apparently environmental--changes in what we eat, how we eat, how we get to work, and so on. It's almost certain that a combination of changes has got us here and that some fraction of the problem is epigenetic and some fraction is the result of families working two jobs and no one having time to shop and cook, and so on (again).
Also, I would like to add that if a person is a jerk to his friend, especially in a very public way, it's not enough to admit to being a jerk in a kind of light hearted way. That's doesn't really rise to the level of an apology. I recommend the book The Five Languages of Apology.
#3 Posted by Jennie Dusheck, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 07:23 PM
I'm so glad you replied, Mr. Freedman! And good-naturedly, too. In general, I think your advice to find long-term "losers" is excellent. However, I'm one of those people who cut the carbs six years ago, the weight came off easily (70 pounds, down to 150), and I'll be happy eating this way the rest of my life, so score at least one for Gary. On the other hand, my boss works out, attends Weight Watchers, and eats a "sensible, balanced" calorie-reduced diet -- all the strategies that failed me for nearly three decades, yet they worked for her. My sense is that Gary is more right than most, in that almost every diet ends up cutting sugar/carb intake to some extent; the differences in dietary response are probably due to differences in how much carbohydrate each individual needs to remove to see benefits.
#4 Posted by Roseanna Smith, CJR on Wed 6 Feb 2013 at 12:33 PM
I liked the beginning of this, when you seemed to be heading toward a more philosophical, overarching discussion of how to report scientific/study findings as a journalist, but then I lost interest as you dove back into your personal debate with these two other reporters about what REALLY causes obesity.
Going back to the much more interesting point about the problems the press has with reporting scientific studies, I think a lot of it stems from basic lack of specificity on the part of the press. The natural tendency is to want to make the headline BIG AND MEANINGFUL AND IMPORTANT TO EVERYONE when the nature of the knowledge (especially causal knowledge) produced by good scientific studies, as you noted above, is instead small, selective, and situational.
To cut down on public confusion, in other words, try to make your headlines and your leads (or "ledes," if you wanna be all journo about it) much more specific about what the study actually tested and concluded. Also, try looking for directly contradictory evidence and publish that if you find it, as well. Then you're correctly leading readers to believe that, overall, "the science" is still unsettled on the matter, even as you present them with novel, interesting findings from whatever specific studies you want to write about.
#5 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Wed 6 Feb 2013 at 04:17 PM
I'm not sure a perspectival bias of the half-full/half-empty kind means a reporter has fallen short. To the extent a good news report is like a good scientific report, it asserts a state of affairs and presents the evidence (or representative data) that the assertion is based on. Take it or leave it, caveat emptor, seems to be the understanding in science. Journalism we seem to expect to be more reader friendly, but the more investigative and/or research-like the news story, the less plausible that seems as a goal, if we take science as the paradigm. Given that science runs on critical thinking, maybe we should expect journalism at times to work that way too. It seems OK to me to portray the graduated cylinder as half full, if your quoted source says that the meniscus was at 50.
#6 Posted by Oliver, CJR on Tue 26 Feb 2013 at 11:13 PM
All three are right in a sense. Of course it is POSSIBLE for people to lose weight and keep it off following the "establishment" guidelines -- low dietary fat, high carbohydrates and exercise. But Pope is right to point out that for most obese Americans, those guidelines are not a solution because most people can't live with the constant blood sugar spikes and falls and hunger pangs. Which is why Taubes' ideas -- the insulin theory, the carbohydrate theory, the Atkins theory -- are so intriguing because they provide a path for people to lose weight by keeping blood sugar and insulin levels low, encouraging fat burning and no hunger pangs. Carbohydrate restriction does not have to mean giving up on a balanced diet with exercise. It only means giving up sugar and starches -- the cheap processed carbohydrates that the food industry makes most of its money producing. This is so easy to see -- particularly if you have tried it -- it is hard to understand why so many doctors and dietitians are unwilling to consider it.
#7 Posted by Tom B, CJR on Tue 16 Apr 2013 at 09:31 AM