Ultimately, though, political journalists have less to offer in explaining precisely why Obama won—a topic that scholars will likely research and debate for years—than in reporting on his policies and plans for his next term. There is no forecasting model for the president’s second-term agenda, which will have far greater consequences for the country than any election retrospective.

Brendan Nyhan is an assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College. He blogs at brendan-nyhan.com and tweets @BrendanNyhan.