But any immigration reform bill will be shaped by Congress—and the impact of reform on detention and incarceration still hangs in the balance. Divisions have already emerged between the White House and the Senate’s bipartisan Gang of Eight about the crucial path to citizenship. One key difference is that the Gang of Eight—which includes McCain and Rubio—has proposed that the Homeland Security department must certify that the border is secure before any undocumented immigrants can get green cards.
One reporter, Seth Freed Wessler of the progressive media site Colorlines.com, has suggested that as negotiations unfold, reform might even increase the numbers of immigrants being imprisoned. A concern among Democratic staffers and immigrant advocates, Wessler wrote, is that Republicans may insist on more enforcement—such as, perhaps, an expansion of Operation Streamline—in exchange for agreeing to a path to citizenship.
Provisions to expand the population facing mandatory detention and deportation—for example, adding categories such as suspected gang members—are another means by which comprehensive reform might lead to more immigrants being detained, Wessler said in an interview.
Muzaffar Chishti, director of the Migration Policy Institute’s office at New York University, said he thought it was unlikely that legislators would seek to exert much influence over executive-branch enforcement programs such as Operation Streamline and Secure Communities.
But, Chishti said, “McCain will want to stay relevant in the Gang of Eight, so he’ll want to put his preferred items in the enforcement agenda.” And in general, lawmakers “could start introducing elements in the legislation saying these are triggers that indicate the borders are secure.”
CCA, for its part, has said it anticipates continued strong demand from the government, regardless of whether a reform bill is passed. A subsequent article by Wessler quoted CCA President and CEO Damon Hininger telling investors last week that while the profile of ICE detainees may change over time, “I think their general belief is there’s always going to be a demand for beds.”
But the murkiness of reform’s impact on the industry is one of the features that makes this such a compelling—and challenging—story. In the coming weeks and months, reporters will be tracking the flurry of competing reform proposals coming from lawmakers, and the ways that those proposals reflect the priorities of competing interest groups. As the story of immigration reform gets told, let’s not forget about an industry that has more than a few dollars at stake.
Jose Robledo contributed reporting for this story.
Follow @USProjectCJR for more posts from this author and the rest of the United States Project team.

While campaign contributions aren't chicken feed, inquiring minds would like to know which politicians, regardless of party, are backing today's increased immigration of welfare supported criminality, as well as profitably investing in the prison systems of CCA/GEO and GEO. For that matter, which politicians are backing today's perpetual increase of welfare supported, home grown criminality, while also profiting from the increased power and money needed to deal with the corollary increase of social hostility, criminal perpetrated financial losses and the increased expenses of detention.
Additionally which corporations are profitably invested in CCA/GEO, while also demanding further influx of Mexico's lowest common economic denominators, gaining both cheap labor from those preferring to work for a living, as well as profit producing prison fodder from the criminal rest. Indeed, which corporations are "proudly" demanding all lower class, low skilled immigration (it's for the poor, don't ya know) while depending on American welfare state taxation to pay for whatever their low wages don't. And where do these corporations hide their profits from the tax man, so that a low wage/tax dependent American population is corporation profitable (and what politicians are helping them do it.) Or was this just a liberal hit piece on 4 Republican pols.
#1 Posted by JR, CJR on Thu 21 Feb 2013 at 10:13 AM
Personally, I don't understand what makes him an attractive candidate. He has long been a supporter of restrictionary immigration policy (something we know latinos in the US are against) and Marco Rubio's immigration reform bill that he proposed recently actually increases the use of E-Verify. I don't see Rubio's appeal to Latinos, he certainly is not an appealing candidate to me.
#2 Posted by Mohammad, CJR on Thu 21 Feb 2013 at 11:57 AM
Interesting window on the reform. But the idea that the shape of the reform is somehow mysterious is wrong. Broadly-speaking, what will be hailed by business and progressives as "immigration reform" (and cursed by nativists and bigots as "amnesty") will as far as possible seek to increase the uncertainty experienced by illegal immigrants while paradoxically decreasing the uncertainty experienced by their corporate exploiters.
We know this because the debate's major players are in view, and because, logically, the interests of the players are easy to understand in terms of wage arbitrage.
If a typical Mexican wage earner makes X and a U.S. worker in the same job makes, say, 4X, it will be in the parties' interest (all the parties except, of course, the U.S. worker) to come to a compromise wage in the neighborhood of 2x.
Because minimum wage and maximum hour laws make a wage of 2x illegal, it is necessary to create or impose--or at least encourage--a sort of twilight legal status for the workers who would accept 2x.
Everything about the way our immigration policy works in practice can be understood in these terms, and no others.
#3 Posted by Edward Ericson Jr., CJR on Fri 22 Feb 2013 at 01:15 PM
Interesting and appreciated article: for whatever reason the severity of chronicaly UNEMPLOYED Veterans and American Citizens, needs to be a stronger priority than, the redundancy of IMMIGRATION policy.
Many Black urban areas are repeatedly agonized with the violence, crime and toxic waste generated by multitudes of abandoned manufacturing plants- that left communities of Black residents adjacant to industrial districts.
And now everyone insist on other people 'Just Wanting the American Dream': we too want to enjoy the many incredible features, technological advances, educational opportunities available through-our country.
Millions of our race are either on probation, parole, incarcerated already- no one in the power circles are prioritizing the survivability secondary impacts of the economic nightmares that demoralize evenmore of Millions who are not probation, parole nor incarcerated.
There is no country, or nation for us to go' home to because we are the D.N.A. fiber of Americana; and everytime an article and another announcemnt about prioritizing the benefits and woes IMMIGRATION gets announced, the reputaion of the future legacy of great beloved United States takes, yet another damaging deduction in the analysis of genuine HUMANITY !!!
None of us, can go to the other nations' and do what has and is being done here, and in the end result Congress and the news media need to understand that civility and HUMANITY are inter-twined and once we leap into trying to establish a new 21st century W.P.A. for unemployed Veterans and American citizens' then the likely-hood of more relaxes IMMIGRATION attitudes will more easily occur, ( probably )- but with our Black African American: current status of UNEMPLOYED, imprisoned, and Utility companiesincreasing un-imagined rates and fees; alongside, local and state governments over-exaggerating Personal Real Estate Taxes'
It's kind of hard to shift focus from our own PERILS to others' who biggest argument: remains they just want the "AMERICAN DREAM"; because so do we, and along through now, Veterans and many UNEMPLOYED American Citizens are enduring the worst-ever "Reality NIGHTMARES".
And THANK YOU, I hope this makes any sense and is not misinterpreted as being insensitive, or off-point.
Marvin S. Robinson, II
Quindaro Ruins / Underground Railroad- Exercise 2013
#4 Posted by Marvin S. Robinson, II, CJR on Thu 28 Feb 2013 at 06:03 PM
Keep up this extraordinary research and reporting.!
Please update the revolving door between private prison firms and HLS ICE.For example, Charles L. Overby, CCA, is now an executive with ICE. Can you document the experience of ICE Executives coming from Private prison firms, and vice-versa?
Can you expand your report of campaign donations from the private prison business to other members of congress?
#5 Posted by Edward Quinones, CJR on Wed 6 Mar 2013 at 02:26 PM