So, in the end, I am back with the most traditional weapons in a campaign reporter’s arsenal—voter interviews and long, mostly background, conversations with political insiders in states like Iowa and Ohio. Often the smartest and least spin-laden interviews a reporter can find are with veteran operatives and strategists who, for whatever reason, are on the sidelines in the 2012 campaign. They boast perspective, knowledge of their states, and an independence that campaign operatives lack.

All this is not a substitute for polls and data analysis, but a companion piece. I am under no illusions that I am doing anything more original than testing hypotheses with actual on-site reporting. But as it increasingly appears as if we will be facing another close election in a deeply divided nation, there is no shame in celebrating Political Horserace Time.

If you'd like to help CJR and win a chance at one of 10 free print subscriptions, take a brief survey for us here.

Walter Shapiro just chronicled his ninth presidential campaign. He writes the “Character Sketch” political column for Yahoo News. Follow him on Twitter @WalterShapiroPD.