Santorum, needless to say, is neither blessed with Clinton’s celebrity nor her campaign’s PR wizardry. But the former Pennsylvania senator has a far stronger argument. The reason the Clinton-Obama analogy breaks down is because of the more leisurely pace of the current campaign calendar. At this point in 2008, more than 80 percent of the Democratic delegates had been selected and Pennsylvania was the only remaining major-state primary. This time around, not only have the three largest states not voted, but also only 45 percent of the GOP delegates (Associated Press numbers) have been selected.
As a result, I am baffled why the press was so zealous about covering meaningless contests like the August 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, but so impatient when actual hard-fought primaries stretch into April. Have we reached the point when a presidential campaign only feels real if the candidates are caught up in the reality-show drama of TV debates with smack-downs and oops moments? Do a lack of debates plus a lack of charismatic candidates add up to a late March news blackout?
Rick Santorum knows better than most how inadvertently unfair press coverage of the primaries can be. Until two weeks before he won the January 3 Iowa caucuses, Santorum had never scored above 10 percent in any of the three dozen prior statewide polls. As a result, the former two-term Pennsylvania senator received about as much 2011 media attention as a presidential candidate running on the Prohibition Party line. I plead guilty to being one of those who airily dismissed Santorum’s chances. Writing about an August 2011 podium clash for The New Republic, I snarkily concluded, “Rick Santorum and Herman Cain also debated—and are purportedly running for president.”
Make no mistake, Rick Santorum is still running for president for real. And with at least 55 percent of the GOP Convention delegates still up for grabs, the political press corps should remember its obligations to Republican voters who still crave a choice. And what I misguidedly wrote after that debate last August reminds me how often in politics the smug conventional wisdom can be grotesquely wrong.
Because Santorum would have to win about 80% of the remaining delegates (meaning probably about 90% of the popular vote since he never gets full slates of delegates), George H.W. Bush and Marco Rubio are both endorsing Romney, Romney maintains a significant financial advantage, and Santorum has not shown any ability to expand his base. I know it's fund to say Romney hasn't either, but the problem is Romney's base is obviously larger. Game, set, match. Let's move on.
#1 Posted by Mike, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 08:12 AM
Great piece. Somehow Mitt receiving 37% of the vote and 50% of the delegates has the sound of inevitability to some. The individual mandate in Romneycare is just as intrusive as O'care. One on one Mitt is still a 35% winner. 60% are voting against our supposed anointed nominee. 60% of voters will yield 80%+ as remaining states are winner take all for an over 50% win. Rick is consolidating conservatives. It will be hard. It's not over.
#2 Posted by robb, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 08:53 AM
Gingrich is running interference for Perry.
On to Tampa.
#3 Posted by redmanrt, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 09:06 AM
See Mike's post above...then do just a little math, and you'll figure it out.
Santorum ENDORSED ROMNEY as a TRUE CONSERVATIVE in 2008; gee, ya think others are getting the message too?! The guy definitely hasn't veered left since then.
Get off the stage and help unite the party--are you really going to let the country go to he** in a handbasket just because you've got a blinded ego??
#4 Posted by Get Real, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 09:30 AM
I think you may be overlooking a significant reason why Santorum has faded. His campaign doesn't have the money to keep him in the public eye with massive TV ad campaigns and carefully orchestrated appearances. His campaign is being starved to death by a lack of money. (The same can be said for Gingrich.) There's no denying that if Santorum had millions to spend on intensive TV ad buys and elaborate appearance events, his star would be a lot brighter. Another unfortunate consequence of the "Citizens United" court case which now allows candidates with unlimited funds to simply overwhelm their opponents regardless of the actual merits of their campaigns.
#5 Posted by Gary, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 09:42 AM
Santorum is all about Santorum. He is the most conceited politician I've seen in a long time. It's not about what's good for the country, or even for the glory of that God he supposedly so loves. It's for HIS glory and nothing else.
Everyone but Santorum knows that in a matchup between him and Obama, Obama will eat him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Santorum thinks he can "take him down". Not unless you forbid everyone to vote except the evangelicals who have brought him this far. Because they are the only ones who support him and his theocratic vision for America. Thankfully, they are not a majority in this country.
#6 Posted by Leigh, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 09:54 AM
Really? Unless Santorum comes in close to Romney in delegate count, what makes him think a brokered convention would give the nod to him. Even if Romney falls short of the needed delegate count, if he's in the lead conventional wisdom says he gets the nod. And if Santorum resorts to the courts over this, that will smack of Gore v. Bush, and likely end angry Rick's political career.
Plus, if there is a "Republican Establishment" (as everyone assures me there is), then Romney would be the brokered candidate at the Republican Convention in August, making all the excitement about the run-up to the Convention a tale told by idiots, full of sound & fury, signifying nothing.
And if someone other than Romney wins at the brokered Convention, then at least we can put the myth of a "Republican Establishment" to bed.
Some say Republicans might choose someone other than the current 4. Would Republicans dare to pick someone who had better things to do than run for President in the primaries--someone who skipped the debates, who was not fully vetted in the primary process, & who would just cut in front of the others at the last moment? Someone who either felt unqualified or not ready for the job (otherwise, I suppose they would have run). Would that be the kind of hardworking, dedicated person we'd want as President?
#7 Posted by R. Freedom, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 10:12 AM
Anyone with a third grade understanding of math could see this race is over. With Gingrich finally pulling back if not pulling out the nearly impossible dream of continuing to split the delegates enough to deny Romney a majority is gone too. The only thing that can stop Romney is Romney himself. It would take a catastrophic act of politic suicide to derail things at this point.
The idea that if it went to a brokered convention that somehow this was going to lead to a Santorum win is laughable. Christian convervatives and the Tea Party think they are driving the Republican party bus but, this primary season should be a slap in the face that they don't. Big business and bigger money are firmly in control.
#8 Posted by Dustin, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 11:32 AM
While the pundits make their declarations, most of the (Almost) Anybody but Obama are praying for some miracle that produces a real candidate to run. That Obama clone with a different hairdo isn't going to make it. His negatives are way too high. That evangelical from PA isn't going to make it but of the two, the clone will probably make a less pathetic run. Meanwhile, many of us pray for some bolt of lightning from above at the convention and ----- Poof!!!! a real candidate appears.
#9 Posted by No Lawyers, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 11:51 AM
Santorum is finished. Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee.
The only people who still resist this rather obvius conclusion are the ultra-hard core, foaming-at-the-mouth right-wingers who are having to face the unpleasant reality, once again, that they do not control the Republican Party.
The "rational Republicans" have prevailed over the knuckle-draggers yet again.
#10 Posted by Danram, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 12:05 PM
Santorum knows he cannot win the nomination. At this point his only motivation for staying in the race is to Weaken the Republican party and Weaken the Republican Nominee. He is PRAYING FOR AN OBAMA VICTORY SO HE CAN RUN AGAIN IN 4 years. If Romney wins, he will have to wait for 8 years. Every delegate he grabs makes it more likely Obama will win, which is his ultimate goal. If he damages Romney and Obama wins, we will have Santorum to thank and Santorum to blame. Remember little Ricky, Elephants have long memories. If Obama gets his second term, little ricky will start his campaign for 16 the day after the polls close, watch and see.
#11 Posted by Ann Pierce, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 01:04 PM
Santorum is running for VP. He said so himself recently that he is perfectly willing to be Romney's VP.
#12 Posted by bobby boomrang, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 01:06 PM
This race is far from over. Romney has a lead in delegates but unless he reaches 1144 all bets are off. Given the fact that there are 2 months after the last primarty till the convention many things can change that can sway the way delegates vote on the second ballot (the first ballot would be a mostlyfrivoluous exercise if no one has the majority). The main reason Romney and his followers want the other candidates to step down is to GUARANTEE a majority win for Romney before the convention - once the other candidates bow out Romney gets all the delegates going forward and thus is assured a majority.
So the calls to step down are not based on a sense inevitability or confidence but out of fear.
#13 Posted by jack, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 01:13 PM
It's over. Santorum will pull out after he loses in Pa.
#14 Posted by J SPENCE, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 01:28 PM
IF he loses in PA there's no reason to quit. Mr Etch-a-Sketch is only pulling in on average 35% of the votes, so no reason to give up so early. If Mr. Etch-a-Sketch can be kept from getting a majority then it would be fun to see what happens at the convention. Mr. Etch-a-Sketch could still win at the convention but why just hand over the nomination to a supremely flawed candidate.
#15 Posted by Mr. Etch a sketch, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 01:38 PM
Most members of the press can count and have a little knowledge of statistical theory. With Santorum's only hard-core base being very conservative evangelicals, the statistical likelihood of his becoming the candidate falls into the single percentage digits. Apparently the staff of the Columbia Journalism Review needs to take some remedial math. I wonder if they would be interested in making a bet?
#16 Posted by Brew, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 02:08 PM
Romney has 40% of the popular vote to-date in the GOP primaries along with 55% of the delegates awarded to date and about half of the 1144 delegates he needs to secure the nomination. The anti-Romney crowd is getting as shrill and impotent as Santorum himself in their efforts to oppose him. Hence, the Romney quip to Jay Leno when asked to describe Santorum as a potential running mate in just a few words: "press secretary." Nice slap down for Santorum's several recent meltdowns before the Press. Santorum is on his way to becoming to the GOP what Nikita Khrushchev became to the Soviets - absolutely nothing whatsoever.
#17 Posted by SnowCypher, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 02:18 PM
Here is the bigger question: why does the public make decisions based on what Nate Silver, Chris Cillizza, or, for that matter Bill Kristol or any other pundit says, charming and entertaining as they all may be? Voters seem more independent of outside influence on American Idol or Dancing with the Stars. That says a great deal about the state of America today. Voters' minds are changed by pundits and advertising. Yuck. Santorum needs to survive April. Romney and the GOP establishment know this and are making a major effort to make him drop out or become irrelevant before a bunch of states in which he should be strong roll around, so that Santorum voters in those places will give up and either vote for Romney or stay home.
#18 Posted by Gnirol, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 02:27 PM
I think it's a premature crowning of the king. The cable news networks, led by Romney's political hack, Brett Hume, are using psychological propaganda to convince the public that Romney is the inevitable winner. Until he gets the 1144 deligates, I call your attention to the immortal words of the old sage, Yogi Berra...it aint over til its over.
#19 Posted by Sam Cafone, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 02:33 PM
I'm shocked that Mr. Shapiro's "reporting" can't be bothered to actually logically analyze the race and understand *why* Santorum's chances are being discounted.
What has happened to count out Santorum? People have actually *counted*. They have looked at the remainder of the primaries and caucuses and noticed that after taking into account that Romney is leading ALL of the remaining winner-take-all states (WI, DC,MD, NJ, UT) and running well ahead in two of the three large states left to vote (CA & NY), that Santorum would have to essentially sweep *all* (90+%) of the delegates in the remaining states...despite the fact that they award their delegates in a proportional fashion....and the odds of that based upon Santorum's previous record are an astronomical longshot. Especially as a number of those states are outside the rural South and Midwest where he draws most of his strength (and all of his victories) from.
#20 Posted by Mark Shanks, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 02:45 PM
It is a travesty that the media has propped Santorum up this long. He's down 570 to 270. In the next eight contests, Romney conservatively wins 215, Santo maxes out at 75. There are 123 super delegates waiting to commit and to date, they have broken 86% to Romney and that was when there was still a contest. After the next eight contests, Romney has winner take all New Jersey and Utah, both a lock, for another 90- delegates. He also has quasi winner take all California, with 169 delegates (last poll showed him up by 19%). Even the states he will lose (Texas, NC) are proportional and he will probably pick up over 50 delegates while losing those two states. He also has additional very friendly states like Oregon waiting for him. The race has been over a long time, the question is why was the media so slow to write Santorum off? Answer: anyone who bloodies Romney helps Obama and the media worships Obama.
#21 Posted by AzRep, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 03:06 PM
It's likely because Romney will be the nominee. He has a better organization and more funding, way more delegates, will win a few winner-take-all states, and has the support of the establishment. If you really think Santorum has a chance, place a bet on him-- don't say you weren't warned beforehand.
#22 Posted by Craig, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 04:01 PM
AzRep has it right. The media has propped up Santorum, refusing to actually analyze the nomination results. Super Tuesday was portrayed as a great day for Santorum and another failure to deliver a knock-out by Romney. But media storylines aside, the fact is Super Tuesday all but decided this race, and decidely in Romney's favor. Since then Gingrich and Paul have been officially marginalized and Santorum has failed to show he can win any state that has a non-Evangelical majority. Romney is going to win either seven or eight of the next eight states. If the chorus declaring it over is loud now, it will be thundering then. If Romney steps on a land mine, or the media decides to prop Santorum up again, and Santorum's base is still willing to suspend its disbelief by supporting a candidate that has no path to victory, then May is a more favorable calendar for Santorum. But proportional voting in Santorum leaning states and winner take all voting in some Romney states make it a fait accompli even under this scenario.
#23 Posted by jamesbarn, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 05:59 PM
I think a lot of analyses like this one that try to prop up Santorum overlook a crucial factor: Santorum himself. He has shown, much to the disappointment of many "non-Romneys," an inability to focus on salient concerns, instead choosing to concentrate on off-in-the-weeds social issues and his anti-Romney agenda (somebody should remind him it's Obama he would be facing in the fall). Santorum can't shut up about Romney, frankly, and after a while that sort of complaining comes across as weak and irritating to all but the staunch, anti-Romney, evangelical base.
I speak as somebody who looked at Santorum with interest after his wins in the early February primaries but who was ultimately turned off by his conduct and apparent lack of substance. He came across as somebody who never expected to get as far as he did--consider all the botched filings for delegates (even in PA!)--and who, when faced with the prospect of becoming the frontrunner, didn't know what to do. In this he resembles the typical Republican congressman: he has no idea how to win, only how to lose not quite as badly. Add to this his big spending record, weak "take one for the team" attitude on NCLB, apparently friendliness with labor unions, and support of Arlen Spector, it's no surprise he:
A) was elected in PA, which is not exactly the reddest state around, and
B) failed to broaden his appeal with the GOP nationwide.
So yeah, it's over for Santorum at this point. The non-Romneys began supporting him because they hoped he was something he ultimately was not: a viable candidate against Obama.
#24 Posted by Argyris, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 07:02 PM
Why? Because it is over. The remaining states do not favor Santorum. He is behind by 20 points here in California, so he's not going to pull that one out. If Santorum fails to win in Wisconsin, he really doesn't have enough opportunities to stop Romney. Sure, Santorum could win several of the smaller states, but there is no way he can get to 1144 delegates, and it is very very difficult to keep Romney from getting to 1144.
To those (like Robb above) who ignorantly say that 60% of the voters are voting against Romney, I would say that you need to wake up. Santorum really has only a narrow appeal. A poll of Gingrich supporters indicated the majority of them favored Romney.
As for the remaining states that are winner take all (California, Utah, Delaware, New York, Indiana), which ones do you really think Santorum has ANY chance of winning? Indiana is the only one where he has a shot.
The race is over.
#25 Posted by Davis, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 08:50 PM
Why would anyone think Santorum could win? If these southern voters can't be bothered to learn that Santorum is a Catholic, why would anyone assume they're paying attention to the press, anyway?
#26 Posted by Meredith, CJR on Fri 30 Mar 2012 at 12:01 AM
Why would anyone think Santorum could win? If these southern voters can't be bothered to learn that Santorum is a Catholic, why would anyone assume they're paying attention to the press, anyway?
#27 Posted by Meredith, CJR on Fri 30 Mar 2012 at 12:02 AM
The media's been in the tank for Romney, and Bain Capital owned Clear Channel Communications (FOX, talk radio, Beck, etc..) have all pushed for Romney all along and vilified any candidate surging past Romney to ensure their defeat. Romney's insiders on left media, like despicable Jennifer Rubin, WAPO, have ensured defeat of all other candidates while praising the unpalatable Romney. With backing from media, GOP entrenched, Wall Street millions, why has it been such a struggle and barely making it by the skin of his teeth. If, as all these romneybots claim, it's very difficult to prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then why all the hand wringing and desperation for others to drop out. If no one else has a chance of winning, let it go, relax, stop assaulting the people for wanting to cast their votes too. Romney has turned out to be the assault candidate.
I'll pass on Romneycare.
Convention Time.
#28 Posted by taxpayer_2, CJR on Fri 30 Mar 2012 at 12:05 AM
Interesting how many people posting here apparently have an ability to see the future! ;-) Rick Santorum is still in the race - the best is yet to come! Romney is the pick of the politicians - Rick Santorum is the pick of the people! GAME ON!!!
#29 Posted by Jan England, CJR on Thu 5 Apr 2012 at 04:35 AM