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Coverage of Goldman Sachs has perplexed me throughout the crisis.
Iād still like to know, for instance, which subprime lenders it financed during the bad old days and how many of their mortgages it repackaged and sold as collateralized debt obligations onto the global bond markets.
In other words, what was its contribution to this whole state of affairs while our current Treasury Secretary was in charge?
But then, Iād like to know that about all the Wall Street banks. Thatās just me; Iām greedy.
Sharp-eyed business-press readers, however, may also be perplexed about another important question: to what extent was Goldman exposed to American International Group?
In recent major stories, The New York Times and Bloomberg are at odds.
The Times, via anonymous sources, says Goldmanās exposure was up to $20 billion. Bloomberg, via its own source, says it was basically zero.
The issue is important because, as everyone knows, the Treasury secretary and former Goldman CEO nationalized the insurer rather than see it go under and bring down its counterparties with it.
It is worth recalling that this was probably the most dramatic and unprecedented Treasury move in the crisis so far, committing up to $85 billion in U.S. funds in return for an 80 percent stake in an insurance company. The federal government, in normal times, has almost nothing to do with insurance. Itās also worth recalling that AIG was/is one of the most complex and opaque financial organizations ever created. Talk about a leap of faith.
And as the Times reported in the same story, Lloyd Blankfein, Paulsonās successor at Goldman, participated in meetings at the New York Federal Reserve in the mid-September days preceding the bailout, including a meeting specifically about what to do about AIG (although judging from a lengthy correction at the bottom of the story, there was some confusion about who participated in what meeting. The correction says Blankfein did, but Paulson did not, attend a meeting devoted to AIG).
Further, the AIG bailout decision came on the heels of the governmentās decision not to bail out Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy the same day Blankfein was at the Fed.
The coincidences spurred the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform to look into whether the USG did GS any special favors that weekend and heard testimony from former AIG chief Robert Willumstad (on page 178) who said Goldman had indeed bought insurance contracts on bonds worth $20 billion from AIG Willumstad added, however, that he didnāt know the answer to the key question — the degree to which that position was offset by other investments Goldman may have made.
Donāt get me wrong. I love Goldman Sachs as much as the next media critic, probably more. Theyāre one of The Audit’s funders, for Peteās sake! (You think this job is easy? Itās not.)
And most observers dismiss any crude conspiracy theorizing and understand that the entire financial system was a risk in the event of an AIG failure, hence the need for action no matter what Goldmanās position.
But even so, itās more than a fair question. What did Goldman have at stake in that move?
Hereās the Times in an edgy September 29 story by Gretchen Morgenson on AIGās risk-taking, a story that also zeroed in on a key, smart question: who were its counterparties? The emphasis is mine:
Although it was not widely known, Goldman, a Wall Street stalwart that had seemed immune to its rivalsā woes, was A.I.G.ās largest trading partner, according to six people close to the insurer who requested anonymity because of confidentiality agreements. A collapse of the insurer threatened to leave a hole of as much as $20 billion in Goldmanās side, several of these people said.
The Times then quotes a Goldman spokesman who knocks down the $20 billion figure and flatly denies that Blankfein was looking for any special favors for Goldman.
A Goldman spokesman said in an interview that the firm was never imperiled by A.I.G.ās troubles and that Mr. Blankfein participated in the Fed discussions to safeguard the entire financial system, not his firmās own interests.
And:
Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman, declined to detail how badly hurt his firm might have been had A.I.G. collapsed two weeks ago. He disputed the calculation that Goldman had $20 billion worth of risk tied to A.I.G., saying the figure failed to account for collateral and hedges that Goldman deployed to reduce its risk.
Hereās Bloombergās account, in a basically laudatory, still interesting story on October 21 by Lisa Kassenaar and Christine Harper about how Goldman has survived:
This year, Goldman also saw trouble brewing in the insurance sector and began hedging its exposure to AIG, which had a notional value of about $20 billion as of mid-September, according to a person familiar with the strategy. The hedges included short positions on AIG and other insurance companies, as well as CDSs. Goldman wouldn’t have lost money if AIG had gone out of business, the person said, although the collapse would have caused wide- spread economic distress.
āWouldnāt have lost moneyā means, to me, that Goldmanās net exposure was zero.
Michael DuVally, a Goldman Sachs spokesman, told me the firmās exposure is hedged, collateralized and ultimately ānot materialā to the firmās overall financial condition. That sounds awfully close to Bloombergās account, but materiality is an elastic enough concept that the Timesās version canāt be excluded entirely. Itās not zero. Itās not $20 billion.
Morgenson, by the way, stands by her story in a note to me. A Bloomberg spokeswoman did the same for the Bloomberg story. They canāt both be right.
Whoās closer?
I donāt know. I have a hunch Bloombergās zero is, but thatās just a guess.
And thatās the problem. The real point is, at this late hour, should we really be relying on guesses, anonymous sources, or a company spokesmanās word to know where Wall Street banksā interest lie in the disposition of public funds to fill holes created by private companies?
Taxpayers, remember, now own AIG, and they own it precisely because of well-founded fears for the counterparties to the insurance contracts it clearly could not pay. There is no other reason. The U.S. Government accidentally got into the property/casualty business (and every other insurance line) only because of AIGās unnamed counterparties who were exposed to some unknown degree of risk of losing some undisclosed amount of money that they willingly took on for their employeesā own excessive remuneration.
And taxpayers canāt even find out who these institutions are? Theyāre still squinting over news stories and parsing quotes from anonymous sources, none of whom has any real knowledge themselves? Howās that again?
This is not to mention the fact that taxpayers—you remember, those people with the stagnating median incomes for the last eight years—were forced to become unwilling shareholders in Goldman itself, along with eight other firms, only because no one else would do it on the same terms.
What we have here, Audit readers, is a classic transparency problem, without doubt. Whatever Goldmanās hedges were and whatever collateral it holds—down to the last security—should be disclosed for taxpayer inspection. Those are public records now.
At this point, the old business press/Wall Street rules—relying on anonymous sources to answer a basic question—should be thrown into a giant trash compactor.
The story of the battling sources shows how little we have learned and how deeply the Wall Street culture needs to change.
On the other hand, it also shows a way forward to restoring public confidence in the government, its bailout and the bailed out institutions:
Put it all online.
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