The 2012 Iowa caucuses are still seven months away, but Republican presidential hopefuls are already well into the “invisible primary”—a tumultuous time of speechmaking, fundraising, coalition-building and constant travel, as they seek to boost their name recognition, stand out from the field, and secure the GOP nomination once the voting begins.
This part of the campaign looks very different than it did in an earlier era, when party bosses huddled behind closed doors at the convention to pick a nominee. But a 2008 book, The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform, argues that for all the changes, the real action during the invisible primary is still in the exchanges between party leaders. CJR contributor Greg Marx spoke last week with Hans Noel, a co-author of the book and an assistant professor of political science at Georgetown University about that argument, and what it means for reporters covering the campaign. An edited transcript of their conversation is below.
Let’s start with the claim made in the title of your book, which is “the party decides” who the nominee is going to be. At one level, that sounds almost banal. Is there something about your findings that is controversial, or contrary to conventional wisdom?
I think that there’s a fair amount that’s contrary to conventional wisdom. You see a lot of analysis of primary campaigns, both from political scientists and in the media, that orients everything around how this candidate is going to win in this state or build this result into winning later, and it’s all about these individual candidates who are competing.
The key insight of the book is to look at presidential nominations not from the point of the view of the people trying to get the nomination, but from the point of view of the party that’s trying to bestow it. There are only a handful of people in the party that are running for office. Most of the people in the party are not running for office, but they really care about who wins the nomination and who wins the general election. And so we should tell the story from the point of view of the players in the party who have an opinion about who the nominee should be and can do something about it.
I think that’s the big difference. We generally talk about individual candidates building a campaign, hiring people, doing the strategy, and all of these things. And they are doing that, but they’re doing it in the context where there’s a bunch of other people who are very, very important, who have a lot of influence, and can kind of decide, “Look, you can build all the campaigns you want, but if you’re Pat Robertson, you’re not going to be taken seriously, no matter how much money you’ve earned.”
Whom are you talking about when you talk about “the party”?
That’s part of the controversy about the book, which is that it’s hard to identify. Our argument is that the party is not just the formal DNC and RNC chair and the official hierarchy. It’s all of the people who have made a commitment to be part of the group that’s coordinating together to try to advance the party’s interests.
You could say the voters count too, because they’re doing some type of coordination and trying to encourage their friends. But their contribution is much smaller, because they don’t have as much influence. So we focus more on the high-profile actors, but we have an expansive definition to encompass all the elite actors who are trying to help the party achieve its collective goals.

"The Party Decides" sounds like a great read. A couple of logical conclusions based on the book's argument:
1) The news media should start to focus more on the "behind-the-scenes" power players in each party if they want to really get a scoop on which candidates are likely to be nominated. On the Republican side, who do the Koch brothers like this year? Who is T. Boone backing? Who is Rupert Murdoch channeling funds to? Imagine the sound bites the public could get if a reporter was able to infiltrate one of these closed-door, high-powered conservative retreats in Aspen or Palm Springs: http://nyulocal.com/national/2011/02/01/conservative-retreat-demonstrates-lack-of-donor-transparency/ AND http://usuncutmn.blogspot.com/2011/06/prominent-closed-door-conservative.html.
2) It seems to me Professor Noel overlooks local media's potential value in understanding the electoral terrain of a given county, state or region. While the task of understanding Orange County, Florida, might be daunting for the New York Times, the Orlando Sentinel probably (hopefully) has a decent grip on it already and could therefore prove more accurate and insightful than the national media when it comes to covering primary action in that area.
3) Finally, though I haven't read it, I hope the book does not miss the chance to emphasize the importance of this peculiar American primary system to the overall functioning of our democracy. Out of over 300 million citizens, the primary system narrows America's choice, essentially, down to two people. That process of narrowing our collective choice, if corrupted by outsized corporate influence, say, or hijacked by radical ideologues, can obviously produce candidates who are, shall we say, not entirely preoccupied with the public interest.
#1 Posted by Taylor W., CJR on Wed 6 Jul 2011 at 10:08 AM
You didn't talk about public opinion polls -- not at all! That's a major omission, since all the hoopla about front-runners and the rise and fall of Iowa candidates in 2011-12 was based on the repeated polls, and the paucity (I write this in early January, I know it will change) of such polls in South Carolina.
#2 Posted by howard, CJR on Thu 5 Jan 2012 at 11:58 AM