Now that the counting’s over in Massachusetts and the crying’s begun for Democrats, with a conservative Republican poised to take over Teddy Kennedy’s Senate seat and health care reform still unfinished, the press is doing its best to sort out what it all means. And in the first round of election post-mortems, many outlets turned to the same idea: voters in the Bay State had “sent a message.”
Here, for example, is the opening of the “news analysis” story in The Boston Globe:
Angry Massachusetts voters sent Washington a ringing message yesterday: Enough.
Voter anxiety and resentment, building for months in a troubled economy, exploded like a match on dry kindling in the final days of the special election for US Senate. In arguably the most liberal state in the nation, a Republican - and a conservative one at that - won and will crash the Bay State’s all-Democratic delegation with a mandate to kill the health care overhaul pending in Congress.
It is difficult to overstate the significance of Scott Brown’s victory because so much was at stake. From the agenda of President Obama and the legacy of the late Edward M. Kennedy to a referendum on the Democratic monopolies of power on Capitol and Beacon hills, voters in a lopsidedly Democratic state flooded the polls on a dreary winter day to turn conventional wisdom on its head.
In other words: angry voters don’t like direction of change in D.C., take action to stop it. That’s clear enough, and seems to be echoed in the headline of the analysis piece on the front page of the Globe’s corporate parent, The New York Times: “A Year Later, Voters Send a Different Message.”
But probe that Times story, and a different picture starts to emerge, one that suggests maybe the message isn’t quite so clear:
Ms. Coakley lost in no small part because of what many Democrats viewed as a stumbling campaign against a sharp and focused opponent. There is a good argument that the outcome was as much an anti-incumbent wave during tough economic times as it was an anti-Democratic wave. And there is still time before the midterm elections for the economy to rebound in a way that benefits Democratic candidates, and for Mr. Obama to make a case that the health care legislation, if he finds a way to sign it into law, will benefit the hard-pressed middle class.
Still, Ms. Coakley’s defeat could easily be seen as evidence that the Obama White House is out of step with much of the American public — pushing through a health care plan at a time when many voters are primarily concerned about unemployment.
So, the result “could be seen”—by whom?—as a repudiation of D.C. Democrats. On the other hand, “there is a good argument”—advanced by whom?—that it wasn’t that at all. The message is starting to get fuzzy.
It isn’t much cleared up by the effort from the Associated Press. The AP story runs the interpretations that Democrats and Republicans are trying to push, then moves into analysis mode:
American voters rejected Republican control in the 2006 congressional elections and the 2008 presidential election. Democrats widely assumed that a top priority, and a winning political issue, was to make health insurance more accessible and competitive.
But now, just 14 months later, voters are snarling at the Democrats they put in charge, leaving them to wonder how to expand services without invoking public wrath.
John Triolo, a Massachusetts independent who voted for Obama in 2008 and for Brown on Tuesday, exemplified the confusing message.
“I voted for Obama because I wanted change,” said Triolo, 38, a sales manager from Fitchburg. “I wanted change, I thought he’d bring it to us, but I just don’t like the direction that he’s heading.”
Everyone should have health coverage, Triolo said, “but I think we should take the time to look at it, but not ram it down our throat.”
So voters are sending a message with their electoral choices, after all. Unfortunately, it’s a “confusing” one. Make of that what you will.
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Same old story -the Dems put up a foks unfriendly candidte and think creds and political philosophy will conquer all -Gore -Kerry and now this mess!
The message is clear - they likesd Brown;s truck better.
#1 Posted by dave nelson, CJR on Wed 20 Jan 2010 at 02:18 PM
I'm sure health care, foreign policy and the economy all took the proper place in voters minds.No matter how you try to figure voter motives, don't forget they are pretty sharp cookies. We are all those voters!!
I think Brown was an excellent cantidate and Coakley wasn't. I'm betting it is not a whole lot mroe complicated than that. Bad dollars lead to turnaround votes.
All politics is local.
#2 Posted by Tom, CJR on Wed 20 Jan 2010 at 02:20 PM
Greg, as one of the voters (I put in my absentee ballot for Brown a few days before I left for Beijing), I can tell you that my vote was a intended as a clear signal to an arrogant, out of touch Democratic Congress and Admin that is (was!) trying to ram health care down our throats. This despite the fact that every poll showed that most Americans don't want the bill in its current form and feel that now is not an appropriate time to create a new huge and unsustainable entitlement program.
Greg, you need to get out more. If you have no conservative friends and never read conservative commentary, how can you ever understand the implications of such an election? Extrapolate that to the MSM as a whole and you've got a bunch of clueless commentators wondering why "Teddy's seat" went to a truck driver.
#3 Posted by JLD, CJR on Wed 20 Jan 2010 at 06:45 PM
Indeed. But it might be possible to say with some confidence that some Red Sox fans bristled when Coakley called Curt Shilling a Yankee.
#4 Posted by Sydney, CJR on Wed 20 Jan 2010 at 08:20 PM
As I watch the pundits conjure up reasons the Massachusetts vote went the way it apparently did, I have some doubts.
I know that balky and very suspicious Diebold voting machines delivered the results to the public and that even in Barnie Frank's district the machine results favored Scott Brown.
I cannot forget that in the 2008 and 2009 General Elections some Republicans seemed to just barely hold on to Senate and House seats even though expected to lose and that Diebold or ES&S's paperless voting machines were tallying votes, and I cannot forget who owns those companies.
Nor can I forget that Martha Coakley won Massachusetts overall in its hand counted locations
I also know that this election's voting machine programmers were LHS Associates, a company whose management is populated by some pretty thuggish guys (google Ken Hajjar, John Silvestro, legislative meeting).
So, as tepid as Coakley and the Dems were in Massachusetts, and as hard as Brown and the GOP worked against her and the Obama administration, I have my doubts about these elections and all the pundit's opinions.
I find it very hard to believe the voting results were exactly as reported.
#5 Posted by BillB, CJR on Thu 21 Jan 2010 at 09:34 AM
BillB poses a pro-Republican conspiracy that eluded the officials of one of the most completely Democratic-controlled states in the country. What will it take to get Democrats to man up and acknowledge that, yes, sometimes they do flat-out lose elections on issues?
#6 Posted by Mark Richard, CJR on Tue 26 Jan 2010 at 12:12 PM