Late on New Year’s Eve, The Des Moines Register made a special effort to get copies of its January 1 issue into the hands of journalists.
That day’s paper carried the final word from DMR polling consultant Ann Selzer, whose final 2004 poll had been the only one to correctly predict the Democratic order of finishers (Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Gephardt).
And on that New Year’s Eve, the poll drew a lot of doubters. It predicted that Obama (32%) would win by seven points, and that Clinton and Edwards would be roughly tied for second, with 25% and 24% apeice. Today, that’s not looking so bad–each candidate got roughly 5 points more across the board, but other than that, it’s hard to find much fault with the final numbers.
“I’m having a good day,” Selzer told CJR.
Many of the doubts had focused on the high number of independents–40%–included in the polling sample. They got in there because Selzer screened for who was likely to attend the caucuses by asking one simple question: Do you plan on attending a causus? If the person said yes, she took them at their word.
That’s a different way of doing things than many other pollsters, who might ask if the person answering the phone if he has caucussed before, or if she can correctly identify her caucus location. Such questions are aimed at winnowing out folks all too happy to claim participation, but unlikely to actually trudge out and attend.
“It is a very trusting screen,”says Selzer. “Here’s my philosphy: let randomness rule. Try not to dink with things that make you think you know better than the world.” Selzer thinks that her more inclusive screen allowed her to pick up on the strong turnout among first-time caucus-goers–she was within 1%.
She was off base in one area, however. In the end, only 20% of the people at the caucuses identified themselves as independents, half the number predicted in the DMR poll. She’s not sure why. “It’s going to kind of live as a question mark,” says Selzer.
Selzer was “out a little late” last night celebrating with some media friends. But now it’s back to work. She’s been hired by the Detroit Free Press to poll the January 15 Michigan primary.
Clint Hendler is the managing editor of Mother Jones, and a former deputy editor of CJR.