Given the current configuration of Congress, the fate of health care is likely to depend, in the end, on the incentives confronting conservative Democrats. If they feel that passage of a particular version of “health care reform” will strengthen their re-election prospects in 2010 or 2012, it will probably pass. If they don’t, it almost certainly won’t. The president, of course, has a role to play in trying to shift those incentives by swaying public opinion. But that’s an indirect route to influence, and one in which he’s competing with a lot of other people who know how to play this game.
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This is a solid piece and I agree with much of it, but there's no question that Obama has made numerous mistakes and his political acumen is overrated.
"But much of this criticism proceeds from the assumption that a different approach—either more detailed, or more aggressively partisan, or more specific and straightforward—would have commanded majority support in Congress. Where’s the evidence for that assumption?"
Back in '02, President Bush sold us a unilateral war that nobody needed against a country that didn't attack us, and despite the fact the Democrats had 50 Senators (and Jeffords, if you count him), Bush got 29 of them to vote Aye on the resolution.
I think the real question is whether there is any incentive for Democrats who are already in corporate pockets to pass genuine health care reform. Even if Max Baucus loses in the next election, his income will skyrocket thanks to the profiteers he is protecting right now.
Billy Tauzin knows that lobbying is much more lucrative and less stressful than holding public office.
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