In a January 2005 paper (200K PDF), Bear Stearns dismissed the government’s estimate as “incomplete,” looking instead at “several micro trends at the community level.” Based on a high number of border crossings and on “very dramatic increases” in the usage of social services such as school enrollments, foreign remittances, and housing permits in a small sample of immigrant gateway communities, Bear Stearns, applying the high rate of growth it saw in those areas to the rest of the country, argued that the number of illegal immigrants “may be as high as 20 million people.”
The study was heavy on extrapolation and light on the large-scale demographic data needed to prove such a contrarian assertion. Common sense suggests that the number of illegal immigrants in the country would tend to be underestimated, but Bear Stearns’ analysis is far from convincing, or conclusive.
We are inclined to believe the much more comprehensive analysis of the Pew Hispanic Center, which reported there were 11.1 million unauthorized migrants in the U.S. in March 2005 and (in perhaps the authoritative study Trasvina referred to) gave “an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for the unauthorized population as of March 2006.”
Dobbs’ suggestion that somehow Bear Stearns’ estimate is just as valid as the better-grounded lower estimates (“11 to 20 million”) just doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny.
The WSJ and the LAT are strong supporters of massive immigration, legal or illegal. So, I wouldn't exactly hold them forth as examples of Truth in Immigration coverage. No doubt a large number of the other papers who've mentioned a figure have also published pro-illegal immigration propaganda in the past.
I'm inclined to believe the Bear Stearns study if only because I live in Los Angeles.
Posted by BigMediaBlog on Fri 31 Mar 2006 at 11:45 PM
Well, when you look at the fact that Dobbs made known whose numbers he was citing, it's not Dobbs that played fast/loose, it was his source.
Yes, there are a lot of disparate sources out there, and it boils down to which source with the larger credibility. Undocumented workers are, by definition, people without documentation and give that, NO source of numbers have reliable information, only guesstimates.
Your source by which you compare Dobbs' numbers is no more reliable than his source.
Illegal immigration was quite the hot topic on all talking-head Sunday programs today and the pro-illegal faction hastens to say that with millions of illegals already here, nothing can really be done after the fact.
I'm saying yes, there is--offering amnesty and full citizenship to the migrant who turns in his boss for full prosecution, for breaking immigrant hiring laws, for violating OSHA laws, for violating overtime/minimum wage/benefits laws, and the law that offers such amnesty should also shut down the entire enterprise that hired the illegals.
Posted by Clara Listensprechen on Sun 2 Apr 2006 at 12:20 PM
To someone with an axe to grind, continually citing "11 to 20 million" is the same thing as saying "20 million" over and over again.
Posted by Xanthippas on Thu 6 Apr 2006 at 11:01 AM
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ON THE LOOSE AT MCDONALDS
Recently I made a valid complaint to McDonalds customer services dept. about McDonalds poor standards at thier Harben Parade branch at Swiss Cottage, London NW3. The complaint concerned slow service, abrasive attitudes, and matters about unacceptable hygeine standards.
The complaint was passed on to the store by customer services, following which the store's manager, Bakry, promptly banned me from the store. He did not deny that my complaint was valid, but was told that I was banned simply becauseI I had made the complaint in the first place. Their management team consists entirely of immigrants, having come here on dodgy visas and the like, and all of which in favour of my ban, which shows how much we are now under the control of illegal immigrants.
Perhaps this is consistent with McDonalds training practices. It would appear that you have to accept their adverse practices without question or suffer the consequences, as I myself did.
Posted by jeremylee on Fri 26 Sep 2008 at 05:22 AM
HELLO LOU , AS YOU CAN SEE WE HAVE THE SAME SURNAMES , IM IN MY 70S,SO IS MY WIFE WE HAVE JUST CELEBRATED OUR 50 TH WEDDING ANNEVERSARY,WE ARE ENGLISH ,BUT WE BOUGHT A LOVELY HOME HERE 8 YEARS AGO , AND WE WOULD LIKE TO BECOME AMERICAN CITIZENS IE GREEN CARD , BUT WE ARE TOLD WE HAVE NO CHANCE ,WE HAVE HAD OUR HOME FOR OVER 8 YEARS AND WE ARE GETTING TIRED OF KEEP GOING BACK AND FORTH TO ENGLAND , WE SPEND A LOT OF MONEY WHILE WE ARE HERE , WE WERE IN BUSINESS ALL OUT WORKING LIVES SO WE WNAT NOTHING FROM THE USA GOVERMENT EXCEPT THE GREEN CARD ,WE ARE NOT EVEN ALLOWED TO ENTER THE LOTTERY BECAUSE WE ARE ENGLISH , YET WE STAND SIDE BY SIDE WITH AMERICA AT TIMES OF WAR , PLEASE ANSWER MY EMAIL ,WE ALWAYS WATCH YOU ON TV, YOURS SINCERELY , JOHN DOBBS,
Posted by john dobbs on Tue 14 Jul 2009 at 11:23 AM