Remember Meredith Whitney’s apocalyptic predictions on the municipal-bond market last year?
Bloomberg News does. And it makes sure Whitney and its readers do too.
Whitney last year predicted a catastrophe in municipal bonds—hundreds of billions of dollars of defaults this year as state and local governments failed to make payments on their supposedly crushing debt burdens. She triggered a panic in the muni markets with a call that she wouldn’t or couldn’t back up, as Bloomberg pointed out back in February in a great piece:
“Quantifying is a guesstimate at this point,” she said. “I was giving an approximation of a magnitude that will bear out to be correct““A lot of this is, You know it, but can you prove it?” Whitney said Jan. 30 over a breakfast of scrambled egg whites with a chicken-apple sausage, a side of salsa and peppermint tea at the Four Seasons Hotel in Midtown Manhattan. “There are fifth-derivative dimensions that I don’t think I need to spell out to my clients,” she said.
The sector Whitney predicted would collapse has instead been the best-performing part of the markets of the past year, up a tax-exempt 10.5 percent, Bloomberg reports.
Public debt benefited as Treasury yields plunged and investors fled volatile stocks, powering the Merrill muni index to its third-best showing in a decade. As the U.S. economy recovered from the longest contraction since the 1930s, revenue rebounded, state and local governments raised the taxes backing their bonds, addressed underfunded pensions, cut spending and borrowed 30 percent less than the record amount of 2010…
In the last four fiscal years, states closed more than $325 billion of deficits, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.
So how many muni bonds ended up going bad this year? Bloomberg reports that muni-bond defaults have fallen 25 percent this year to just $2.1 billion.
Oops.
My favorite part of the story is tucked down toward the end:
She said last year after her September report entitled “Tragedy of the Commons” that state and local borrowers had too much debt and were a systemic risk to financial markets. She didn’t return a telephone call or respond to an e-mail seeking comment yesterday.
That reminds me of Bloomberg’s tough lede in July on where Whitney’s call stood:
Time is running out on the credibility of Meredith Whitney, who has yet to acknowledge that her eight-month-old prediction of widespread defaults this year in the market for state and local government debt is proving unfounded.
What’s nice about today’s story is that it’s just the latest in a series of stories by Bloomberg on Whitney’s call and what it has meant about the big muni-bond market. Best of all was that terrific piece in February that not only quoted her gibberish but called out her track record and raised serious questions about her analysis.
Good stuff.

Before vilifying Whitney (and it might be well deserved), but please read Michael Lewis' book, The Big Short....or, better yet, interview Michael Burry about his trials and travails in going short and calling a market. Timing is a tough thing these days.
Just a thought,
cheers
#1 Posted by Brian Truscott, CJR on Sat 17 Dec 2011 at 12:28 AM
Before vilifying Whitney (and it might be well deserved), please read Michael Lewis' book, The Big Short....or, better yet, interview Michael Burry about his trials and travails in going short and calling a market. Timing is a tough thing these days.
Just a thought,
cheers
#2 Posted by Brian Truscott, CJR on Sat 17 Dec 2011 at 01:02 AM
One more thing - I read the February Bloomberg story and how she was lambasted for her Visa call.
You're aware, right, that when the article was written, Visa traded at around $67/shr.....today? $97.44/shr. - almost $20 above where it was October last year when she made the original call.
Yup, she doesn't know how to call 'em, does she? Wow, I'd take that return in this wonderful market....
again - timing. a bit off? who cares.....if I bought in February, I 'd be up about 44%.
How's your portfolio doing these days?
cheers
brian
#3 Posted by Brian Truscott, CJR on Sat 17 Dec 2011 at 01:22 AM
Meredith Whitney's "bad call" had very bad effects on millions of investors. Her analysis defied logic even when she made it and the media picked up on it like it was candy and made it the "buzz of the financial news". This whole event has been one of the major reasons the markets suffer from a lack of credibility from retail investors which couldn't come at a worse time for our economy. Hurray to Bloomberg! May Meredith Whitney twist slowly in the wind as she's finally getting the accountability she and other financial charlatans so richly deserve.
While we're making hysteria specialists accountable, don't forget Richard Bookstaber, Christopher Whalen, law professor David Skeel and author Frederick Sheehan. Oh, and that other boob Michael Lewis has been skewered by the analysts for his flawed interview of Arnold Swartznegger in Vanity Fair. As a matter of fact, who reads Vanity Fair for financial news anyway?
#4 Posted by Frank, CJR on Sat 17 Dec 2011 at 09:11 AM
The Big Short is about Michael Burry....read it .....it's all about how the banks packaged and waterfalled sup-primes and - here's your quote: had very bad effects on millions of investors. The practice "defied logic even when (it) made it and the media picked up on it like it was candy and made it the "buzz of the financial news". This whole event has been one of the major reasons the markets suffer from a lack of credibility from retail investors which couldn't come at a worse time for our economy......
some articles in vanity fair can be excellent. i haven't read that one by Lewis. but.....arnie...that's your counter? okay.
the jury is not out yet on this one. govt bonds, munis in particular, are in a precarious state,,,,,I wouldn't go near govt bond investments these days....awfulness just waiting to happen. you must know people are using the USD a a safe haven out of habit, that this will end....again, timing.
#5 Posted by Brian Truscott, CJR on Sun 18 Dec 2011 at 11:28 PM
Brian, the same people thought Japan's Yen was going to collapse 20+ years ago. Those people have no clue about how the economy works. USD is a safe haven and always will be because the USG controls the currency.
Michael Lewis is a good writer and hooks readers nicely but the real story was written by Greg Zuckerman and the REAL story in terms of mechanics of the trades was in Econned which is an excellent book.
MW has always been overhyped, if u read her actual research piece on Citi in 2008, it was very basic stuff - mainly that C's dividend exceeded its net income - and did not go into the balance sheet quality. Not to mention Guy Moskowski had a sell report on Citi about 3 months before MW.
Visa is one stock recommendation, I have plenty of stocks that are up 50%+ and pletny that are down a lot too. I could prob cherry pick single stock ideas from MW that have not done well.
MW was an also-ran financial stock analyst that got one call right. Gov't finances are much more different than individual stocks. Munis fall into so many different categories as well and there are often times appropriations bills at the Federal level that can be used to backstop muni troubles.
#6 Posted by bozo, CJR on Tue 20 Dec 2011 at 10:37 AM
@ Brian called it right, it is about the timing.
Consider housing prices continue to fall and ranks of low income and poor are now 50% of population and growing. If Bloomberg doesn't that than something is wrong. And knowing that Bloomberg should know this will affect municipal revenues and debt.
You might also want to keep this in mind. Crisis isnt over and has a aways to go. People know that, even MSM which has published articles pointing out unemployment problem will last decades. Meanwhile some are wondering how long current some will last. This is not first time last Depression of 1800s was raised as an example.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-slump-wont-end-until-2031-2011-12-14?dist=countdown
This slump won’t end until 2031
Commentary: Our predicament parallels Long Depression of 1870s
#7 Posted by May, CJR on Tue 20 Dec 2011 at 01:41 PM