Bloomberg News lands some real blows on analyst Meredith Whitney in a terrific story this morning.
Whitney, famously—or infamously—went on 60 Minutes in December and predicted that fifty to a hundred “sizable” cities and counties would go bust, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal bonds.
Since then, the risk-averse muni-bond market has tanked amidst controversy over whether Whitney’s call makes any sense.
She sparked a mini-panic with the help of a news program and then refused to release her report to show everyone why they were panicking (worse, 60 Minutes never asked her to back up her apocalyptic assertions). As Charlie Gasparino wrote in an excellent column a couple of weeks ago:
And yet, as the municipal market is crashing on her prediction, with deals being pulled and slashed in size, with prices falling and taxpayers having to pay extra so cities and states can sell debt, Whitney is refusing to release the actual report that would tell us how she came to such a brash, and unprecedented prediction, on the grounds that her research is proprietary and for the use of the clients of her research firm only.
It’s about time Whitney came clean and released her report to the public so we can determine if it should be given so much credence; and if it shouldn’t, traders and investors can stop a possibly misguided prediction from causing further damage.
Whitney didn’t release her report. But Bloomberg’s Max Abelson and Michael McDonald force her hand. They got hold of it and report that Whitney doesn’t have any numbers to back up her assertions—she pulled the numbers out of thin air.
Whitney gives them an embarrassing interview that includes these gems of gibberish (emphasis mine):
“Quantifying is a guesstimate at this point,” she said. “I was giving an approximation of a magnitude that will bear out to be correct“…
“A lot of this is, You know it, but can you prove it?” Whitney said Jan. 30 over a breakfast of scrambled egg whites with a chicken-apple sausage, a side of salsa and peppermint tea at the Four Seasons Hotel in Midtown Manhattan. “There are fifth-derivative dimensions that I don’t think I need to spell out to my clients,” she said.
Uh huh. Some analysis.
(A technical aside: I love that Bloomberg puts these nonsensical quotes in here. A lot of reporters would have passed them over for something that makes sense to the reader. I know I’ve done it. In that sense, we present a false picture of sources, making them look smarter and better than they really are. The smart thing to do here was to show how the source can’t talk straight.)
Whitney is the analyst who got famous calling Citigroup a dog back in 2007, and Bloomberg is good to point out that she was not the first to do so. She, a former Fox News talking head, married to a former WWE wrestler who at various points went by the ring names Bad Santa, Death Mask, and Vampiro Americano, was the most media savvy.
Whitney sent her report to her customers back in September, but the mini-panic gained steam six weeks ago with the 60 Minutes report in which reporter Steve Kroft asserted flatly at the top that “there is another financial crisis looming involving state and local governments.” Bloomberg notes that Whitney used the words “panic” and “social unrest” in other interviews.
The problem with using this kind of language is that the muni-bond market is disproportionately comprised of widows and orphans investors. It’s not a place where, say, Lloyd Blankfein is likely to put his money. Cyrus Sanati wrote in Fortune a couple of days after the broadcast that “investors in munis are normally quite risk averse - for them, Whitney’s view on the market was akin to yelling ‘fire” in a crowded theater.”
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O.K., I know there are more important issues at stake here. But I can't get over that ridiculous convention of New York journalism in the second quoted passage, in which we learn what the subject of the story was eating: "a breakfast of scrambled egg whites with a chicken-apple sausage, a side of salsa and peppermint tea at the Four Seasons Hotel in Midtown Manhattan."
#1 Posted by Gregory Korte, CJR on Tue 1 Feb 2011 at 02:27 PM
Great catch. I would have missed this one. Now, is 60 Minutes going to address this? Just what is Steve Kroft going to do about this? It's his credibility/credulousness too. After all, the average person isn't reading Bloomberg or following people like Whitney, but they still watch 60 Minutes and believe the stuff they broadcast. And most people don't have the tools or knowledge to evaluate this kind of story on their own. That's why 60 Minutes owes it to their audience to come back on this story.
Two asides: 1) How about doing a credible piece on those "crazy" pensions. The reality is that 99.99% of them are not "crazy" at all. It would help if someone would put the pension "issue" into some context. You have clueless people like Andrew Sullivan running around waving these misleading OpEds with his beard on fire over The Fleecing Of The Millenials. Some facts might be in order.
2) The convention of detailing the breakfast menu is disconcerting to me as well.
#2 Posted by James, CJR on Tue 1 Feb 2011 at 03:34 PM
Never thought Kroft belonged on 60 Minutes. He just doesn;t have the stuff.
Whitney is another bird entirely. She was put on the Earth to move markets. Question: Is there a derivative bet against Munis? How can one short the municipal bond market, as a whole? And if there is a way, who would do that? And why?
A real good investigative-type reporter might have fun searching for these answers.
#3 Posted by edward ericson, CJR on Tue 1 Feb 2011 at 04:51 PM
Whatever do you mean Ed? .... Oh. I see what you did there.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b1b_1237128864
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 1 Feb 2011 at 07:54 PM
The muni market is "disproportionately comprised of widows and orphans investors"? You have no idea what you are talking about. Tax-exempt bonds are mostly bought by high net worth investors. You know, investors who actually are in a high tax bracket. I wouldn't be surprised that Lloyd owns a good slug of muni debt.
#5 Posted by the bankster, CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 01:56 PM
at the nadir of the market in early 2009, when citi was trading for $1/share she said in an interview that her best call was to short citi. 6 months later it was up over 300%. Nice call whit, never before has anyone been given so much credit over one good call.
#6 Posted by at, CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 03:59 PM
Not to change the topic from Whitney, but Taibbi has an interesting response in his mailbag to a question on muni-debt.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/mailbag-mainstream-punditry-the-financial-crisis-and-the-tea-party-20110117
Letter: "I can't believe what I just read. Jamie Dimon talking about how serious the looming epidemic of municipal bankruptcies is.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/12/municipal-debt_n_807977.html
Ummm... JP Morgan is directly responsible for two very notable ones, JAMIE. The Jefferson County sewer fiasco and the Chicago parking meter swindle.
Where did he find the balls that big to come out and nonchalantly issue advisories about a "terrible" crisis for which his bank is heavily responsible?"
Matt's Response: "Don't forget Denver and a host of school districts in Pennsylvania and Los Angeles County, among many, many others.
I bet that we're going to find out that the corruption in the municipal debt sector has been greater than is currently believed. The whole auction-rate bond world is set up in a way that makes corruption on the part of the banks almost an inevitability -- it's a paradise for churning and fee-gouging, with a setup not to unlike the option-ARM mortgage deals...
The municipal debt business used to be maybe the most boring sector of the whole financial services industry. Municipalities borrowed money at low fixed rates over long terms, then paid the money back on time, end of story. It wasn't until the banks started cooking up these crazy variable-risk instruments and teaming up with corrupt politicians to get taxpayers to sign their futures away on them that these debt problems began spiraling out of control. I think a lot of these auction-rate deals and interest-rate swap deals should be declared illegitimate, certainly when there's a pay-for-play issue (which was the case in Jefferson County and other arenas), if the banks at any time committed fraud during their service of these deals (particularly on the auction-rate side; more on that some other time), and if other predatory tactics were used.
Doubt that will happen, though. I imagine instead we'll see federal and state bailouts of the more troubled regions, with much of the money going to pay off debts to bondholders and/or banks."
What's the matter with you Taibbi? You didn't use the words 'pension' or 'union' once? You're never getting on 60 minutes with that attitude.
#7 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 2 Feb 2011 at 11:32 PM
Hmmmmm....maybe we all take a good hard look at Wisconsin and Ohio now! Her predictions are spot on!!
#8 Posted by Steve, CJR on Fri 18 Feb 2011 at 11:35 PM
As a retired municipal bond analyst, I foresee much uncertainty in the muni market
in the future. Municipal management, in my opinion, is suspect all over the country.
Abuses abound, as is evidenced by stories about Bell, Calif. and the Passaic
Valley Sewer Commission in N.J. This market is non-transparent, has next to
no regulation and is extremely difficult for an individual investor to do due diligence
on. When someone is prescient, and I am, and so is Whitney, don't just disregard
their opinions. In 1978 , I predicted the biggest default in municipal bond history, that of the Washington Public Power Supply System, 5 years before it happened.
All that I received for my effort was to be booed out of meetings and have my life
threatened. Investors of over $2.2 billion in bonds got about 7-8 cents on the dollar.
But when a major municipal bond publication did a lengthy study on this travesty, and asked a professional heavily involved in financing this debacle, what went wrong, the comment was "nothing went wrong, we all made money,
didn't we"?
#9 Posted by Elliot Greenbaum, CJR on Mon 18 Apr 2011 at 07:53 PM