Nothing draws attention on the Internet like a column about Sarah Palin, so David Broder’s latest—arguing that the former Alaska governor offers “a pitch-perfect recital of the populist message that has worked in campaigns past,” and thus she is a force to be reckoned with—has already been picked over pretty well. Still, it’s worth briefly repeating a point CJR has made before: arguments for Palin’s purported popularity run aground on the abundant polling evidence that she is not, in fact, widely popular.
As it happens, there’s a brand-new poll out today from The Washington Post and ABC News. Here’s what it found:
Palin’s own ratings are weaker, apparently hurt rather than helped by her return to the spotlight. Fifty-five percent of Americans see her unfavorably, the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity, and 71 percent believe she’s not qualified to serve as president, a position she said Sunday she’ll consider seeking. Both negatives are at new highs.
Palin’s more popular in her own party — 69 percent of Republicans see her favorably. But far fewer, 37 percent, do so “strongly.” (By contrast, in an ABC/Post poll last month, 70 percent of Democrats had a strongly favorable opinion of Barack Obama.) More problematic for Palin is that even in her own party 52 percent think she’s not qualified for the presidency — up by 16 points from an ABC/Post poll in November, shortly before the publication of her memoir, in which she criticizes the strategy of the 2008 Republican presidential campaign.
That doesn’t mean Palin won’t continue to be an important political figure; a substantial minority of the public likes her very, very much. But as for Broder’s suggestion that she might be what “the American people” are looking for—it seems the people, broadly speaking, do not agree.
Update, 2:15 p.m. Via Twitter, Nate Silver offers some reasons for skepticism about the significance of Palin’s numbers in the latest Post poll.
It may be that Palin is like the Kennedys, in an odd way - people find her interesting as a personality, the way people were interested in the continuing drama of the Kennedy family. But that doesn't mean they would vote for her for president. She has become a 'celebrity'. In the same way, the Kennedys had an almost cult-like following, especially back east. This cult was more urba-affluent and up-market, and, unfortunately included many academics and journalists, let alone people in 'the arts' and entertainment, so it is not interpreted in the same light as is the following for Palin.
#1 Posted by Mark Richard, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 12:42 PM
Yup... a sportscaster and half-a-term governor of 700,000 people is "like the Kennedys," in a very odd way indeed.
John Kennedy was elected president and his approval rating never dipped below 56%, which is also known to mindless dipshits as a "cult-like following."
#2 Posted by Hardrada, CJR on Fri 12 Feb 2010 at 06:03 PM