After the recent Group 8 meeting in Italy, news outlets released a flood of reports about certain developing countries—led by China and India—that refuse to accept specific, binding targets for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Negotiators from those nations argue that doing so would curb their economic growth and prevent their citizens from achieving the same living standards that the developed world has enjoyed for decades.
Unfortunately, most of the ensuing coverage focused on conflict rather than compromise. Sure, two weeks after the G-8 meeting, plenty of outlets quoted Hillary Clinton telling the Indian environment minister that she believes “there is a way to eradicate poverty and develop sustainability that will lower significantly the carbon footprint.” But what is that way?
Missing from most of the lead stories about the emissions dispute was a deeper analysis of strategies that developed countries like the United States employ—or, more importantly, could employ—in order to come up with reduction targets that the developing world could accept. In fact, two days before the meeting began, researchers at Princeton University suggested a new way to calculate national emissions caps that might be more acceptable to developing nations. However, it was only in blog posts and online-only reports—at The New York Times, Time, Newsweek, CNN, and FOX News, for example—that major outlets paid it any heed.
The vision behind the Princeton proposal, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is to “treat equally those with the same emissions, wherever they live.” The researchers suggest that, instead of assigning a target based on a country’s overall emissions, negotiators should assign one based on the number of “high-emitters” living there who exceed a universal individual emission cap. The upshot is that because China and India have fewer higher emitters than the U.S. and Europe, it would be easier for them to meet short-term targets; more stringent reductions would become necessary only as their populations become more affluent.
According to the authors of the Princeton proposal, “the universal emissions cap achieves equity and fairness … in the sense that: (i) countries with a larger proportion of high emitters do more, and (ii) countries with similar emission profiles have similar commitments.” In other words, the plan puts countries with high total emissions, but low per-capita emissions, on the path toward reduction in a way that allows continued economic growth. To sweeten the deal for developing countries, the researchers also suggest creating an “emissions floor” ensuring that “the world’s lowest emitters would not be thwarted from obtaining diesel engines to produce their first electricity for lighting, television, and the charging of batteries; gasoline fuel for their first motorized transport; and liquid petroleum gas for their first modern cooking fuel—where these technologies are the lowest-cost options.”
Reporters who covered the Princeton proposal online did a fine job breaking down its mechanics for readers, interviewing the authors, and seeking outside appraisal. For instance, at his Dot Earth blog, The New York Times’s Andrew Revkin posted insightful remarks from lead author Robert Socolow, asking what he would say to climate negotiators from the U.S. and China if they were in an elevator in a tall building. Here’s an excerpt of what Socolow says:
You both can go on disagreeing forever… Take a look at the numbers. There are big demands on both of you… Might there be a pair of targets here, found from this formulation or some modest modification of it, that the two of you could agree upon?