The more interesting issue in Dave’s discussion is why experienced science and health journalists covering the same subject, (obesity, in this case) and all doing precisely what Dave counsels—approaching the literature skeptically and thoughtfully and applying copious common sense—can still come to conclusions that appear to be contradictory conclusions. Dave had his own cover article in Scientific American on obesity, just as Parker Pope and I did in The News York Times Magazine. All are attempts to make sense of the controversy, conjecture, contradiction and confusion inherent in obesity research, and yet all are at odds with each other.
Dave’s conclusions are orthogonal to mine and to Parker Pope’s, which are, as Dave notes, orthogonal to each other. My conclusions, Dave writes, left “the majority of frontline obesity researchers gritting their teeth.” Parker Pope’s apparently left a majority pronouncing her “main thesis — that sustaining weight loss is nearly impossible — dead wrong, and misleading in a way that could seriously, if indirectly, damage the health of millions of people.”
So how are we to make sense of a situation when thoughtful investigations of controversial subjects not only disagree with the conventional wisdom—what the majority of front-line researchers are said to believe—but with each other? Why does this happen? How do we cover it as journalists and interpret it as critical readers? I’ll continue to use obesity and weight loss as the case study here because it is now the subject that I (arguably) know best and it’s at the heart of Dave’s article.
One obvious explanation for the rise of personal health journalism, particularly on the subject of weight loss, is because obesity seems to be such an intractable problem on a personal level. If sustaining significant weight loss was not at least exceedingly difficult—a subject we’ll discuss shortly as it’s central to Dave’s argument—the plethora of books and articles suggesting easy fixes or never-before-tried fixes would be unnecessary. New diet books come along every day because the old books have, at the very least, outlived their usefulness. And because obesity is now such a critical societal problem, effecting the long term viability of our healthcare system and perhaps our economy itself, it’s not unusual these days to even have economists and circuit court judges speculating publicly about its cause and the best means of prevention.
In the late 1950s, less than one in eight Americans were obese, and fewer than 200 articles were published yearly on obesity in the English language medical literature. Today, more than one in three Americans are obese, more than 15,000 relevant articles were published in the academic literature last year alone, and the cost of obesity to the health care system in the US is estimated at $150 billion a year. These numbers alone suggest a research pursuit in turmoil, and a subject that should be ripe for journalistic investigation (and venal exploitation as well). If the conventional wisdom on the subject is correct—if all we have to do to lose weight is eat less and exercise more—then why so much research, and why are so many of us fat, and why so many more now than fifty years ago? And, if it’s not correct, then why not?
The articles by Dave, Parker Pope and myself are all attempts to answer these questions and to make sense of what Dave calls the main thesis of Parker Pope’s article, which he declares dead wrong: that weight loss is nearly impossible to sustain and so obesity is indeed an intractable condition. We’re sifting the evidence in different ways, approaching it from different perspectives, and coming to different conclusions. If the main thesis wasn’t at least mostly right, though, despite Dave’s claim to the contrary, none of us would need to write about this at all, and a over a third of the US population would not be considered clinically obese.

ALL journalists who presume to "cover" obesity would be well-served to read Abigail Saguy's excellent book: http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/in-a-new-book-ucla-sociologist-241999.aspx
#1 Posted by Harry Minot, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 01:10 PM
Great piece, even if it was dissatisfaction with my piece that inspired it.
To the charge that I was kind of a jerk in criticizing the work of my friend Gary Taubes in an article that he helped send my way, I plead guilty.
In all this thoughtful analysis of the conflicting claims regarding the obesity crisis, science journalists might feel worse off than before in trying to help readers find a path to obtaining and maintaining a healthy weight. Consider this approach: Tell your readers to ignore everything that you and other science journalists and scientists tell them about the subject. Instead, advise your readers to do this: First, seek out people who have lost weight and kept it off for years. Next, ask them how they did it. If you can't find any such people, Parker-Pope is probably right. If you find some and they tell you all they did was cut out carbs and the weight just came off and stayed off and they're happy eating this way the rest of their lives, then Gary is probably right. If you find some and they tell you they changed their lifestyles in a number of ways, and now eat a sensible, balanced diet that they carefully track and get moderate daily exercise and enlist the support of friends, family and fellow weightlosers, then I'm probably right.
#2 Posted by David H. Freedman, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 04:11 PM
Taubes' letter is a great discussion of the problem.
It's unclear to me why anyone might think that only one of you (3) can be correct. The problem clearly IS intractable at a societal scale. But that doesn't mean there can never be solutions. Nor should we judge the difficulty of the problem on the basis of the success or failure of a handful of individuals. It's my opinion (a fourth?) that what's brought this on is not profound changes in the character of individuals. We didn't all become gluttonous sloths in 30 years any more than we all suddenly experienced genetic mutations that made us fat.
The difference between now and 1970 is apparently environmental--changes in what we eat, how we eat, how we get to work, and so on. It's almost certain that a combination of changes has got us here and that some fraction of the problem is epigenetic and some fraction is the result of families working two jobs and no one having time to shop and cook, and so on (again).
Also, I would like to add that if a person is a jerk to his friend, especially in a very public way, it's not enough to admit to being a jerk in a kind of light hearted way. That's doesn't really rise to the level of an apology. I recommend the book The Five Languages of Apology.
#3 Posted by Jennie Dusheck, CJR on Tue 5 Feb 2013 at 07:23 PM
I'm so glad you replied, Mr. Freedman! And good-naturedly, too. In general, I think your advice to find long-term "losers" is excellent. However, I'm one of those people who cut the carbs six years ago, the weight came off easily (70 pounds, down to 150), and I'll be happy eating this way the rest of my life, so score at least one for Gary. On the other hand, my boss works out, attends Weight Watchers, and eats a "sensible, balanced" calorie-reduced diet -- all the strategies that failed me for nearly three decades, yet they worked for her. My sense is that Gary is more right than most, in that almost every diet ends up cutting sugar/carb intake to some extent; the differences in dietary response are probably due to differences in how much carbohydrate each individual needs to remove to see benefits.
#4 Posted by Roseanna Smith, CJR on Wed 6 Feb 2013 at 12:33 PM
I liked the beginning of this, when you seemed to be heading toward a more philosophical, overarching discussion of how to report scientific/study findings as a journalist, but then I lost interest as you dove back into your personal debate with these two other reporters about what REALLY causes obesity.
Going back to the much more interesting point about the problems the press has with reporting scientific studies, I think a lot of it stems from basic lack of specificity on the part of the press. The natural tendency is to want to make the headline BIG AND MEANINGFUL AND IMPORTANT TO EVERYONE when the nature of the knowledge (especially causal knowledge) produced by good scientific studies, as you noted above, is instead small, selective, and situational.
To cut down on public confusion, in other words, try to make your headlines and your leads (or "ledes," if you wanna be all journo about it) much more specific about what the study actually tested and concluded. Also, try looking for directly contradictory evidence and publish that if you find it, as well. Then you're correctly leading readers to believe that, overall, "the science" is still unsettled on the matter, even as you present them with novel, interesting findings from whatever specific studies you want to write about.
#5 Posted by Taylor, CJR on Wed 6 Feb 2013 at 04:17 PM
I'm not sure a perspectival bias of the half-full/half-empty kind means a reporter has fallen short. To the extent a good news report is like a good scientific report, it asserts a state of affairs and presents the evidence (or representative data) that the assertion is based on. Take it or leave it, caveat emptor, seems to be the understanding in science. Journalism we seem to expect to be more reader friendly, but the more investigative and/or research-like the news story, the less plausible that seems as a goal, if we take science as the paradigm. Given that science runs on critical thinking, maybe we should expect journalism at times to work that way too. It seems OK to me to portray the graduated cylinder as half full, if your quoted source says that the meniscus was at 50.
#6 Posted by Oliver, CJR on Tue 26 Feb 2013 at 11:13 PM
All three are right in a sense. Of course it is POSSIBLE for people to lose weight and keep it off following the "establishment" guidelines -- low dietary fat, high carbohydrates and exercise. But Pope is right to point out that for most obese Americans, those guidelines are not a solution because most people can't live with the constant blood sugar spikes and falls and hunger pangs. Which is why Taubes' ideas -- the insulin theory, the carbohydrate theory, the Atkins theory -- are so intriguing because they provide a path for people to lose weight by keeping blood sugar and insulin levels low, encouraging fat burning and no hunger pangs. Carbohydrate restriction does not have to mean giving up on a balanced diet with exercise. It only means giving up sugar and starches -- the cheap processed carbohydrates that the food industry makes most of its money producing. This is so easy to see -- particularly if you have tried it -- it is hard to understand why so many doctors and dietitians are unwilling to consider it.
#7 Posted by Tom B, CJR on Tue 16 Apr 2013 at 09:31 AM