At the end of March, Columbia University awarded the 2011 Oakes Award for Distinguished Environmental Journalism to New York Times reporter Justin Gillis for his ongoing multimedia series, Temperature Rising, examining the fundamental tenets of manmade climate change. Articles in the series, most of which appear on the front page, provide in-depth, back-to-basics assessments of global warming’s effects on glaciers, forests, food supply, weather, and more, and Gillis often follows up with more details on the Times’s Green Blog. Following his latest A1 story, about the strange run from hot to cold temperatures in recent weeks, CJR’s Curtis Brainard talked to Gillis about staying focused on a story that’s lost traction elsewhere in the media.
How did you become interested in climate change?
It was a direct consequence of the Knight Science Journalism Fellowship I did during 2004-2005 academic year, where you take classes at MIT and Harvard. I was covering genetics and biotechnology for The Washington Post at the time, so I was thinking I was going to study biology and educate myself in the field I was covering. But when I got there, no one could talk about anything but climate and energy. So I started taking classes and the more I learned, the more I thought to myself, “This is the biggest problem we have—bigger than global poverty. Why am I not working on it?” From there, the question was, how do I get myself into a position to work on the problem? That ultimately led me to leave the Post and go to the Times because the Times is just better positioned cover the issue.
The Times launched Temperature Rising as climate coverage was in overall decline following the Climategate affair, the fruitless UN climate summit in Copenhagen, and the failure of climate legislation in the US. What inspired the paper to double down?
It was more or less a direct response to Climategate, which led to a lot of questions about the science. One was forced to read the e-mails and ask, “Do they suggest any sort of scientific misconduct?” As we studied them, it became clear to me that they didn’t, so we asked ourselves, “How do we respond in this situation when the evidence is all pointing in the same direction?” Points of contention exist within the science, as they should, but not about the basics of whether we have a problem. So, we asked ourselves, “What can we do to take readers back to square one, and can we better explain the underpinnings for this claim that we have a problem?” That’s when we decided to launch the series. The problem then and now is that it’s such a big topic that you’re really pushing the limits of what’s achievable within the frame of a newspaper story. But we decided to see if we could push those limits and give people climate change in bigger doses that might make more sense to them than the kind of incremental, he-said-she-said way the issue had traditionally been covered.
Has it worked?
It’s gotten a lot of reaction, certainly. Every single one of these stories has climbed pretty high, if not to the top of, the Times most-e-mailed list, which is an indicator of the level of public interest. They’ve also drawn scores—hundreds sometimes—of comments. The reactions are somewhat predictable. You have the diehard climate-change deniers who come out of the woodwork with every one of these stories, and sometimes we take bullets from people on the left who say that we’re not politically correct enough or that we should never quote skeptical scientists at all.
To me, the most interesting reaction has been from college professors writing in, saying, “We’ve never seen newspaper stories like this and we’re using them in our classes to teach students the basics of environmental science.” That’s been a gratifying reaction, and interesting to me. I think what it’s telling us is that there’s so little out there that’s accessible to people who don’t already understand the issue.
"I can reliably count on some sort of attack from somebody saying I shouldn’t have done that. I think these people are just being a little—what’s the right word—ditzy."
I don't know if that is the right word to use. When you create an association between "climate researchers" and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, you are doing a disservice to the discussion. They are not climate researchers. If you want to create a contrast between a an established likely estimate and a possible alternative, you should seek out the climate researchers who have an alternative estimate and discuss their reasons why.
The problem we have when it comes to climate change is that it is a problem that requires political and economic action based on scientific realities. When you discuss the political realities as if they are having an affect on the scientific realities, you unintentionally provide reason for the public to avoid political and economic action due to political realities and biases, not on facts.
Myron Ebell's lack of faith in climate models adds nothing to the story. What CEI thinks is unimportant to the scientific reality of the discussion. Why even mention that coastal researchers and the CEI agree that the government shouldn't subsidize coastal development and the NIFP since their reasons on why they agree will obviously diverge (one believes putting people in threatened areas sets them up for catastrophe, the other believes government should never provide public services even as they question the reality of catastrophe).
When these organizations start acknowledging the scientific realities and creating rigorous solutions within the conservative framework, then their opinions and thoughts will matter. When they are quoted just to say, "other people (on account of their unmentioned political bias) disagree with the science" that is not helpful. If they cannot accept the state of the science, and cannot provide valid scientific reasoning why they question want to question the state of the science, then they have no contribution to offer to the discussion.
The only reason to include them is because of an old:
http://us-intellectual-history.blogspot.com/2012/03/historicizing-conservative-think-tank.html
"massive shift to a new language of public policy argumentation, one which would greatly aid in shifting policy discussions to the right in that it would allow conservatives entrance into public policy debates by virtue of their identity as “conservatives” rather than on the specific content of their beliefs or the rigor contained in their analysis. It was merely enough that they could “create competition” with other institutions and intellectuals that were declared hopelessly liberally biased. This shift created a new dominant discourse of public policy expertise and debate that exists to this day and continues to shift such debates rightward."
That is unacceptable at this stage in the game. If some people can't agree on the facts, that is their problem. If CEI cannot accept that Climategate did not suggest scientific misconduct, which they don't, that is their problem.
When you use them in your stories as a source, you inflict their problems on your readers, in my opinion.
I hope that doesn't make me 'ditzy'.
#1 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 2 Apr 2012 at 03:29 PM
Congratulations, Thimbles. You have expressed exactly the point I wanted to make, and done it far better than I could. Your comment is quite probably more valuable than the article you're commenting on.
#2 Posted by JG, CJR on Mon 2 Apr 2012 at 05:41 PM
*blush* Well I don't want to take away from the work Justin is doing. That he's willing to state and stake that energy and climate change are the most important issues facing our species today, in spite of all the distracting circumstances we face today, is a brave stand.
But yeah, I hope the constructive criticism gives him something to think about.
#3 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 2 Apr 2012 at 06:55 PM
The point about the CEI is relatively minor. I'd really love to see The Times do more on technological solutions to Climate Change. For example, the prospects for large-scale solar thermal, wind, PV, HVDC, energy storage, electrofuels, etc.
#4 Posted by David Snydacker, CJR on Tue 3 Apr 2012 at 07:17 PM
''YOU'VE BEEN MORANO'D!
"You've been Morano'd" is a new internet term meaning that someone, pro global warming or in denial or skeptic or warmist or whatvever, has been singled out for some news item and frontpaged on climate activist Marc Morano's CLIMATE DEPOT blog: examples include Kari Norgaard, and 100s of others over the years. Not all posts are negative, but mostly they are making fun of the person's ideas.
http://pcofftherails101.blogspot.com/2012/04/youve-been-moranod.html
#5 Posted by dann e bloome, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 07:30 AM
No global warming for 15 years:
http://goo.gl/7rLro
Kind of hard to explain away.
IPPC report on weather extremes: "There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change"
"The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados"
"The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses"
http://goo.gl/58xHj
Perhaps Justin made a poor career move? Perhaps should have stayed with genetics and bio?
#6 Posted by Lorenzo Blake, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 12:00 PM
@Lorenzo: First, a recent reanalysis by the UK Met Office has changed the 15-year trend you refer to, with 2010 now showing as the warmest year on record, followed by 2005, and then 1998.
Second, regardless of the short-term 15-year trend, it's worth remembering that the last month in which the global average temperature was below the 20th century mean was February 1985. That was a long time ago.
Third, climate models have never projected a steady increase in global average temperature under climate change, because natural variability and cycles such as ENSO have big effects on global average temperature from year to year. It's like the stock market: lots of up and down swings from year to year, but the overall trend over decades is up.
Fourth, one reason that insured losses have increased in response to extreme events over the past century is that there's more to insure and the stuff that's insured is worth more. So regardless of the trend in extreme events, insured losses are expected to increase. That's a strong and clear signal, whereas attributing individual extreme events to climate change with any useful degree of certainty takes careful analysis (and in some cases isn't possible).
#7 Posted by brad, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 12:46 PM
@brad: Really?... a trend means you don't look at specific years, that's sorta why its called a trend. Please link to the data from UK Met Office where they indicate there has been a statistically significant upward trend between 1997 and 2011.
I assume you disagree with Phil Jones: “Bottom line – the no upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.” I wonder what he would be worried about?
#8 Posted by Lorenzo Blake, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 01:11 PM
@Lorenzo: I don't think the reanalysis has been published yet, but here's an article about it: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/perfect-storm-erupts-over-new-climate-data-20120320-1vib5.html
#9 Posted by brad, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 01:25 PM
"Please link to the data from UK Met Office where they indicate there has been a statistically significant upward trend between 1997 and 2011."
Not this sh*t again:
The trend since 1995 is statistically significant:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510
The temperature data plateaued in comparasion to 1998 but the physical changes recorded have been extensive, the plateau occured during a severe solar minimum, and deep oceans have been absorbing more heat during this period:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Deep-Ocean-Warms-When-Global-Surface-Temperatures-Stall--.html
What you are fighting are the implications of basic physics and chemistry. Why? What is the scientific basis for your objection to the data observed and the propositions used to explain it?
Because if you do not have a scientific basis for your objections, then you have nothing to contribute to the discussion. Some of us are trying to deal with reality, we don't have time to yap with those who are solely interested in denying it.
#10 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 02:14 PM
@Thimbles: Personally I think skepticism is vital to the advancement of science, including climate change science. There are legitimate uncertainties about climate change, including some of the biggest questions like "by how much and how quickly will the world warm over the next 100 years?" Furthermore, science isn't done by vote: one person who's right is worth 10,000 who are wrong.
I think there are three basic types of skeptics: 1) real working atmospheric scientists who see potential flaws in the data or who have identified other factors that could explain the trends we're seeing, 2) people with vested interests who would benefit from postponing or cancelling action to address climate change, and 3) people who generally mistrust "big science," models, consensus views, etc. and who genuinely believe that climate change is some big hoax perpetuated by academics and government agencies that want to increase their funding. Or they believe it's a hoax perpetuated by environmentalists as a way to achieve their agendas.
People in the first camp deserve respect; people in the third camp at least deserve understanding, even if they frustrate us. People in the second camp are more like cigarette-company executives in the 1960s when evidence for the dangers of smoking became widely known; I'm not sure they deserve either respect or understanding, but ultimately they're just trying to do their jobs.
#11 Posted by brad, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 02:43 PM
"Personally I think skepticism is vital to the advancement of science, including climate change science. There are legitimate uncertainties about climate change, including some of the biggest questions like "by how much and how quickly will the world warm over the next 100 years?" Furthermore, science isn't done by vote: one person who's right is worth 10,000 who are wrong."
I completely agree. We should apply skepticism to this science to make sure the propositions we make are reflective of reality. We humans have been known to make mistakes from time to time and we have sometimes made incorrect conclusions about complex systems based on incomplete information.
But there is a difference between being skeptical of a proposition because of observations that do not conform to model or because you've found a different model which better fits the observations - and being skeptical because you do not like the implications of a proposition.
If you're being skeptical of evolution or the big bang because those theories imply a more minimal role for divine intelligence than you're comfortable with, that is not valid scientific skepticism.
If you want to question whether evolution is driven by random genetic mutation or epigentic reaction to changed environments, that's some valid skeptical discussion we can have.
What I see more often on the climatic skeptical side is not people interested in advancing knowledge, but people interested in throwing spitballs at it.
And, if the projections for climate change are correct, we really don't have time for spitballs.
#12 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 03:21 PM
True, we don't have time for spitballs, but they're going to keep coming.
Apart from the industry-funded skeptics, I think the great bulk of denyers out there are the same kinds of people who spend their time trying to debunk conventional wisdom on a variety of topics, such as nutritional advice (e.g., the legions of devotees of Gary Taubes, the legions of paleo diet fans, etc.).
Part of it is the underdog effect, the appeal of a hypothesis that turns conventional wisdom on its head, and part of it is that the arguments put forward by the leading denialists are usually so intuitive; they sound like they make sense even if they don't.
You still hear people arguing, for example, that CFCs can't cause ozone depletion because they're heavier than air so there's no way they can make it to the stratosphere. You also hear the same argument about SF6 as a greenhouse gas. People don't stop to think that particles like dust that are far heavier than individual molecules of CFCs or SF6 can make it up to the stratosphere. Similarly you still hear people claiming that the temperature record isn't accurate because it's simply measuring the heat island bias, when in fact those concerns were studied intensively and laid to rest well over a decade ago. But the arguments make intuitive sense, they're like urban legends and they just don't go away.
#13 Posted by brad, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 03:38 PM
NewsBusters: NYTimes Climate Reporter Justin Gillis Compares Global-Warming Skeptics to Opponents of Evolution
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/clay-waters/2012/04/04/nytimes-climate-reporter-justin-gillis-compares-global-warming-skeptics
#14 Posted by StewartIII, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 05:33 PM
Justin Gillis when you believe in evolution, you must believe what the Darwin Family taught beginning with the grandfather Erasmus Darwin. They taught the Family Tree of Man Evolution with the white races at the top and the black races at the bottom. Shame on you.
#15 Posted by Acushla, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 07:20 PM
@brad: I think your categorization of the types of skeptics is excellent. I would pout myself in the third category, but rather than feeling AGW is a "big hoax" I think it has some validity that has been seriously corrupted by confirmation bias.
"Reporters" like Curtis or Gillis try to outdo each other in affirming AGW. They look at only one side of any issue - the one that confirms their own bias. Curtis will question job losses from cancelled pipelines, but would never in a million years apply the same skepticism to Obama's "green jobs" promises.
Their positions on any given topic are completely predictable. As a result, they have lost their credibility, becoming cheerleaders rather than reporters.
#16 Posted by JLD, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 10:30 PM
"True, we don't have time for spitballs, but they're going to keep coming."
That is true and so I differentiate between people who are seeking the truth but are misinformed and those who are misinformed because they prefer misinformation to the truth. If you make a claim and it gets debunked authoritatively, repeatedly, and yet I still hear it coming from you as if we hadn't been over it a hundred times, then I put you in the latter category.
If you say, "Oh, I did not know that, but I still have questions about climate science," then I put you in the former category since there is still the possibility of constructive dialog. It may be not much of a chance, but I hold out hope.
What annoys me about climate skeptics is that I go to the trouble of investigating my claims because I am skeptical of information and I don't like getting snookered.
Meanwhile, many climate skeptics are still doing things like quoting the "hide the decline" email out of context, despite the readily available explanation. Why can't they do simple tests of their own sources while they're attempting to do forensics on Phil Jones? This is what science is supposed to be: trust nothing, verify everything. That's scientific skepticism and the climatologists have been doing that on their part.
What 'the skeptics' have been doing is quite a different animal.
#17 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 11:02 PM
Just a note to Curtis and to Justin too. I have written you both 125 polite emails asking you to interview me about my polar cities work, blessed by James Lovellock, even, and Curtis promised he would do so three years ago and since then nada. And Justin i sent you 125 emails too and FB msg too about polar cities interview and nada. You guys do not respond to anyone who thinks outside the box re climate chaos. You just want sexy VIP profesor experts so you can blak blah blah about this and that without ever talking about the 1001 pound elephant in the room: POLAR CITIES. your awards do not mean anything if all you write about is safe sexy things and never venture outside your comfy cubicles and risk soemthing to talk about polar cities for survivors of climate change in 2500 AD. What are you afraid of? I have important powerful news for you to get from me, big interview get, and your response. Nada. you don't even have politeness to reply to my emails yes or no. Sigh, Danny BLoom, 1949-2032 with new MORANO'd youtuve vid here and you, Jstuin, you've been Morano''d!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSbHsHEvxgM
#18 Posted by danny e. bloom, CJR on Wed 4 Apr 2012 at 11:14 PM
Sweet music from Chris Mooney:
http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2012/03/chris-mooney-republican-brain-science-denial
"Their willingness to deny what's true may seem especially outrageous when it infects scientific topics like evolution or climate change. But the same thing happens with economics, with American history, and with any other factual matter where there's something ideological—in other words, something emotional and personal—at stake.
As soon as that occurs, today's conservatives have their own "truth," their own experts to spout it, and their own communication channels—newspapers, cable networks, talk radio shows, blogs, encyclopedias, think tanks, even universities—to broad- and narrowcast it.
Insanity has been defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, and that's precisely where our country stands now with regard to the conservative denial of reality. For a long time, we've been trained to equivocate, to not to see it for what it is—sweeping, systemic. This is particularly true of reporters and others trained to think that objectivity will out. Yet the problem is gradually dawning on many of us, particularly as the 2012 election began to unfold and one maverick Republican, Jon Huntsman, put his party's anti-factual tendencies in focus with a Tweet heard round the world:
To be clear, I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy...
What all of this means is that our inability to agree on the facts can no longer be explained solely at the surface of our politics. It has to be traced, as well, to deeper psychological and cognitive factors. And such an approach won't merely cast light on why we see so much "truthiness" today, so many postmodern fights between the left and the right over reality...
So it is not that Schlafly, or other conservatives as sophisticated as he, can't make an argument. Rather, the problem is that when Schlafly makes an argument, it's hard to believe it has anything to do with real intellectual give and take. He's not arguing out of an openness to changing his mind. He's arguing to reaffirm what he already thinks (his "faith"), to defend the authorities he trusts, and to bolster the beliefs of his compatriots, his tribe, his team.
Liberals (and scientists) have too often tried to dodge the mounting evidence that this is how people work. Perhaps because it leads to a place that terrifies them: an anti-Enlightenment world in which evidence and argument don't work to change people's minds.
But that response, too, is a form of denial—liberal denial, a doctrine whose chief delusion is not so much the failure to accept facts, but rather, the failure to understand conservatives. And that denial can't continue. Because as President Obama's first term has shown—from the healthcare battle to the debt ceiling crisis—ignoring the psychology of the right has not only left liberals frustrated and angry, but has left the country in a considerably worse state than that."
This is partially why I'm a bit more direct than most when I put forth my positions. When one sees the success of the right, it's not because they were so conciliatory and reasonable to their opponents, it's because they state a position and commit to it. If you cannot commit to your ideals, you will always look ingenuine to your public. Bernie Sanders is a socialist incumbent. Does he suffer from that association? No. He wears it like a badge. People can respect that.
Band yet respect can be lost when trust is too often violated, which is why I hold out hope for deniers. Come back to reality. We need you.
#19 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 5 Apr 2012 at 03:23 AM
@Thimbles: you may want to (if you haven't already) read Jonathan Haidt's book "The Righteous Mind," which explores many of the psychological issues you mention. But I wouldn't say that "arguing to reaffirm what he thinks" is a trait limited to conservatives; most people do it. Haidt demonstrates this by citing experiments in which people were asked crazy questions like "is it wrong to have sex with a dead chicken?" Just about everyone said it was wrong, but nobody could come up with a coherent argument for why. Our opinions are formed largely by emotion rather than arrived at through careful analysis and logic. The analysis and logic are applied afterward to back up our position.
@JLD, after I posted my comment I realized that I should have pointed out that many of the skeptics in the third camp simply feel that the evidence for climate change is based on poor science. I'm fascinated with the parallels between the climate change debate and the nutrition debate: skeptics of mainstream nutritional advice point out that much of it is based on observational epidemiology, which can only reveal correlations, not causation, and much of it also is based on self-reporting of diet and exercise, which has been shown to be inaccurate. So, for example, the recent study purporting to show that consumption of red meat increases your chances of dying early was roundly attacked as junk science.
One of the big challenges with both climate change and nutrition is that we can't really do controlled experiments. We have only one world and one climate, and while we can compare modeled worlds we know the models aren't perfect replicas of reality. With nutrition, we can't test Gary Taubes' hypothesis by doing a controlled study in which we ask half the people to overeat without consuming any carbohydrates to see if they still get fat, because it's not ethical (people can sign disclaimers, but the health impacts of obesity are significant enough that you'd have a hard time getting such a study through a human subjects committee).
#20 Posted by brad, CJR on Thu 5 Apr 2012 at 06:58 AM
@brad: Anther obvious parallel is between AGW and the economy. Neither can have counterfactuals, and both are reliant only on theories. Of course, the views on how to fix the economy are every bit as polarized as those on AGW.
#21 Posted by JLD, CJR on Thu 5 Apr 2012 at 10:14 AM
@JLD: I'm not sure climate change is "reliant only on theories." We have clear evidence that the increase in CO2 concentrations is due to fossil fuels rather than natural causes (based on isotope ratios), we have clear evidence from satellite instruments that outgoing longwave radiation is reduced in the absorption spectra of CO2 and other GHGs (which shows that GHGs are preventing heat from escaping to space). We have multiple lines of evidence that temperatures are rising (not just from thermometers but sea ice, glaciers, phenology, etc.). That's a bit stronnger than theory. The projections for future change are where things get dicey because we still don't know the climate's sensitivity (i.e., how it will respond to a doubling of CO2), nor do we have a complete understanding of all the feedbacks, etc. And every now and then we discover some new natural cycle that we didn't account for before (I still remember a paper in Nature about 15 years ago that found a connection between global temperature and tidal strength, which varies on a long-term cycle...in periods of strong tides, there is a cooling effect from the upwelling of cold water from ocean depths; when tides are weaker the climate is warmer.
#22 Posted by brad, CJR on Thu 5 Apr 2012 at 11:09 AM
Has anyone done any type of study about the makeup of the climate change deniers? It seems to me that the majority of them have no scientific background at all - yet have no problem doubting the work of many people with advanced degrees that have done literally many years of field work.
#23 Posted by Gill Bates, CJR on Sun 2 Dec 2012 at 09:13 AM