Every year, news stories about US gasoline prices appear in the early spring and remain popular until the end of the summer driving season in September. But “pain at the pump” takes on special significance during presidential election years, as Republicans and Democrats use gas prices to attack one another’s energy policies and curry favor with voters. This year, the GOP is blaming the Obama administration for rising prices, but in 2008, it was Barack Obama, then a senator from Illinois, who was pointing his finger at Washington. Make no mistake, all such accusations rest on shaky ground. The price of gasoline is determined primarily by the price of crude oil (in February it accounted for 72 percent of the cost of regular unleaded and 65 percent of the cost of diesel), which is established by a global market over which US energy policy holds little short-term sway.
The 2012 campaign has already seen innumerable claims and counterclaims related to gas prices and domestic oil production. Journalists should be fact checking all those statements, letting their readers and viewers know whether they represent truth or spin. More often than not, however, they drop competing quotes into their stories without assessing their relative merits. This is lazy reporting that does a disservice to voters. We understand it can be hard to dig up the necessary background on deadline, especially while traveling. Here, then, is a Reporter’s Toolbox of primary sources of information related to gasoline prices and oil production in the US, which journalists can use to evaluate and clarify the political rhetoric.
Gasoline Prices
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintains a terrific website called Energy Explained, which provides easy to understand explanations of all of the country’s renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. The section on Gasoline is broken down into five subsections: Where Our Gasoline Comes From, Use of Gasoline, Prices and Outlook, History of Gasoline, and Gasoline & the Environment. The Prices and Outlook subsection is further divided into three parts, which campaign reporters will likely find most useful:
- • Factors Affecting Gasoline Prices: the cost of crude oil; taxes; refining costs and profits; distribution and marketing costs and profits.
- • Price Fluctuations: crude oil supply and prices; seasonal demand for gasoline.
- • Regional Price Differences: distance from supply; supply disruptions; retail competition and operating costs; environmental programs.
The EIA also maintains a useful Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) page covering all energy sources and prices. The Gasoline heading includes answers to queries such as:
- • What’s up (and down) with gasoline prices?
- • Why don’t fuel prices change as quickly as crude oil prices?
- • What do I pay for in a gallon of regular gasoline?
- • Does EIA have gasoline prices by city, county, or zip code?
- • How can I find historical gasoline prices for each State?
- • Where can I find inflation-adjusted gasoline prices?
- • What is the outlook for gasoline prices for 2012 and for 2013?
Those wanting to dig deeper should turn to the EIA’s Petroleum & Others Liquids website. It includes the weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and is denser than the overview/explainer pages, but contains hard data and analyses and projections for prices, crude reserves and production, refining and processing, imports/exports and movements, stocks, and consumption and sales. One of the more useful resources to be found there is the report This Week in Petroleum, which provides information about recent events affecting the petroleum industry and markets.
The Global Oil Market
Since the price of crude oil is the primary determinant of the cost of gasoline, it behooves reporters to know something about the global oil market. A good place to start is the EIA’s primer on Oil Market Basics, which includes chapters on supply, demand, trade, refining, stocks, and prices, among others. The administration also has a helpful page, “What Drives Crude Oil Prices?”, which is updated monthly and quarterly, and which analyzes seven factors that influence oil markets: supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), demand in OECD and non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), inventories and reserves, spot prices, and financial markets.

$4 gas is the result of the worldwide oil cartel of OPEC and its allies acting
to squeeze off oil supplies.
Here are two effective short-term remedies:
1. Require Iraq to start pumping more immediately. It is still producing at
the Hussein level of 2003. Iraq's reserves are near the top in the world.
2. Require Iraq to stop using its membership in OPEC to skyrocket oil prices.
As the ongoing occupying power in Iraq, the US has the power to direct ALL
activities of the Iraq government, including its participation in OPEC.
President Obama should issue the orders, and Congress should hold hearings. The
price of gas was $1/gallon in March 2003 when the occupation started. It should
go back there for the benefit of the American public.
Journalists should be reporting more about the US occupation powers and their actions over the Iraq government.
#1 Posted by Carl Olson, CJR on Fri 23 Mar 2012 at 01:20 PM
Follow the money is most important to track down the culprits. Do you have any good sources as to who of OPEC and its allies has been getting the trillions of dollars of cartel windfalls? Could easily include US big oil companies.
Gas was $1 a gallon (oil at $25 a barrel) in March 2003 when the occupation of Iraq was imposed. Gas skyrocketed and now is $4 a gallon (oil at $100 a barrel), even in the face of the worst recession since the Great Depression.
This reporting would be truly eye-opening and lead to a real debate.
#2 Posted by Carl Olson, CJR on Fri 23 Mar 2012 at 03:14 PM
Obama:Iraq, you have to pump more oil.
Iraq: No.
Obama:Also, you have to stop using your OPEC membership.
Iraq: No.
Now what? Invade again?
Madness.
#3 Posted by LikeThatCouldHappen, CJR on Fri 23 Mar 2012 at 04:50 PM
One nobody mentions is the wave of refinery closures when refiner profits were squeezed over the past few years. No new refineries in about 40 years, and Wall St. management by the quarter militates against keeping temporarily idle capacity intact.
There's a reason prices differ widely from place to place.
Both political parties and almost non-partisan outsiders like to say the country should have a long-trem energy policy, but as long as oil stocks and refinery stocks are traded on Wall St., it never will.
#4 Posted by Harry Eagar, CJR on Fri 23 Mar 2012 at 04:56 PM
Another resource: theoildrum.com, an old-school industry forum. It helped me understand shortages and price spikes in a particular region after Hurricane Ike, caused by the temporary shutdown of a specific pipeline.
It's also on Twitter as @theoildrum. As with any source, remember to bring your skepticism and judge contributors by track records.
#5 Posted by Andria Krewson, CJR on Fri 23 Mar 2012 at 07:53 PM
Harry Edgar had it precisely right. As long as energy resources are commodoties, the speculation by investors and the quarterly profits method will mean gasoline is at the mercy of a few.
#6 Posted by Dan, CJR on Sat 24 Mar 2012 at 02:03 PM
Dear LikeThatCouldHappen:
The US continues as the occupying power in Iraq. As such it can dictate anything for the Iraq government, including oil production its membership in OPEC.
Some people have the mistaken idea that the US has "left" Iraq. Some uniformed "combat" troops left a month or so ago. But tens of thousands of other uniformed troops, DOD security and other contractors, spy agencies such as NSA, CIA, FBI, etc., and others operate out of the largest embassy in the world in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq.
It's about time we in the American public got something out of this occupation. We've paid plenty of blood and treasure.
President Obama should issue the orders, and Congress should hold hearings.
#7 Posted by Carl Olson, CJR on Sat 24 Mar 2012 at 02:10 PM
So...
In order to "stop the spin," you're advising journalists to RELY EXCLUSIVELY ON FEDERAL GOVT SOURCES.
Are you serious?
#8 Posted by Dan A., CJR on Tue 27 Mar 2012 at 01:49 PM
"It's about time we in the American public got something out of this occupation. We've paid plenty of blood and treasure."
I know what you mean. Germany used to feel the same way about Poland.
Meanwhile, if you look into EIA findings you find:
PEAK OIL!
Which makes it a resource easily targeted by speculators and supply hoarders like you know who.
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 27 Mar 2012 at 02:16 PM
And the only person really talking about this, the only person who's gone out of his way to bring public attention to this issue in the past, is Bernie Sanders:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/28/opinion/sanders-gas-speculation/index.html
#10 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 27 Mar 2012 at 02:26 PM
Speaking of things no one's really talking about:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-warming-close-to-becoming-ir
We're worried about the price of oil. In a hundred years, we're going to be worried about...
Ah who cares. If we are determined to cook the world, the world's gonna cook. The kids are going to write some real nasty history textbooks based on us.
#11 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 28 Mar 2012 at 03:11 AM
The U.S. recently became a net exporter of gasoline for the first time in decades, as reported by McClatchy, Reuters and others.
From McClatchy's Kevin Hall on Feb. 21 (his article points to price speculation).
"WASHINGTON — U.S. demand for oil and refined products — including gasoline — is down sharply from last year, so much that United States has actually become a net exporter of gasoline, unable to consume all that it makes.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/21/139521/once-again-speculators-behind.html#storylink=misearch#storylink=cpy"
#12 Posted by SB, CJR on Wed 28 Mar 2012 at 10:52 PM
The fingerprint to watch for? According to the professor Krugenstein:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/oil-speculation/
"Oil speculation is back in the news. Last year I was skeptical about claims that speculation was central to the price rise, because what I considered the essential signature of a speculative price rise — physical withholding of oil from the market, in the form of high inventories — just wasn’t showing.
This time, however, oil inventories are bulging, with huge amounts held in offshore tankers as well as in conventional storage. So this time there’s no question: speculation has been driving prices up."
From the mcclatchy article linked above:
"Inventories of stored oil are also unusually high, the EIA said.
"At 339.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year," the agency said. "Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range."
Hence, no shortage to explain soaring prices.
In fact, U.S. demand and consumption patterns are so abnormal compared to recent decades that oil and gasoline are both now being exported to Europe, Asia and Latin America."
Speculators?! In my oil markets?! *rage face*
#13 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 29 Mar 2012 at 12:07 AM
The U.S. lately became a net exporter of energy for once in years, as revealed by McClatchy, Reuters and others.
#14 Posted by Jerald, CJR on Fri 13 Apr 2012 at 04:57 AM