On Wednesday, I argued that the mounting rebuttal of the recent controversies related to the so-called “Climategate” e-mails and alleged errors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) landmark 2007 report deserves more high-profile coverage.
One piece of evidence that I did not mention was The Sunday Times’s recent retraction of article published in January, which set off the whole “Amazongate” meme. The article, which has not been removed from the paper’s Web site, reported that the climate panel’s 2007 finding that 40 percent of the Amazon could be sensitive to changes in rainfall was “unsubstantiated.” In its retraction notice, the Times explained:
The IPCC had referenced the claim to a report prepared for the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) by Andrew Rowell and Peter Moore, whom the article described as “green campaigners” with “little scientific expertise.” The article also stated that the authors’ research had been based on a scientific paper that dealt with the impact of human activity rather than climate change.
In fact, the IPCC’s Amazon statement is supported by peer-reviewed scientific evidence. In the case of the WWF report, the figure had, in error, not been referenced, but was based on research by the respected Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) which did relate to the impact of climate change. We also understand and accept that Mr Rowell is an experienced environmental journalist and that Dr Moore is an expert in forest management, and apologise for any suggestion to the contrary.
The retraction of the article, by Jonathan Leake, drew fairly widespread coverage on mainstream media blogs, with posts at Newsweek, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, among other sites. A second—and admittedly far less consequential—retraction by The Sunday Times received scant attention, however.
A little more than a week before the IPCC story, the Times published an article headlined, “Blonde women born to be warrior princesses.” The piece badly mischaracterized the research of Dr. Aaron Sell, whose work found a correlation between attractiveness and anger, but said absolutely nothing about hair color. That article has now been removed from the paper’s Web site as well. A number of questions remain unanswered, however.
Following the IPCC/Amazon and blondes articles, CJR and many other commentators pointed out the Times did not seem to have its stories straight. Yet despite ample evidence to that effect, the Times resisted taking action until scientists misrepresented in the articles took their grievances to the U.K.’s Press Complaints Commission (PCC), an independent arbiter of such matters with no real parallel in the United States. In the case of the blondes article, Sell immediately requested that the Times correct its representation of his work and approached the PCC when he got no response. Likewise, in the case of the IPCC/Amazon article, Dr. Simon Lewis, an expert on climate change’s impacts on tropical forests, whose views were badly misrepresented in the piece, also went to the PCC (his letter of complaint letter is here) after requests for correction amounted to naught. In its retraction notice, the Times apologized to Lewis:
We accept that, in his quoted remarks, Dr Lewis was making the general point that both the IPCC and WWF should have cited the appropriate peer-reviewed scientific research literature. As he made clear to us at the time, including by sending us some of the research literature, Dr Lewis does not dispute the scientific basis for both the IPCC and the WWF reports’ statements on the potential vulnerability of the Amazon rainforest to droughts caused by climate change.
In addition, the article stated that Dr Lewis’ concern at the IPCC’s use of reports by environmental campaign groups related to the prospect of those reports being biased in their conclusions. We accept that Dr Lewis holds no such view – rather, he was concerned that the use of non-peer-reviewed sources risks creating the perception of bias and unnecessary controversy, which is unhelpful in advancing the public’s understanding of the science of climate change. A version of our article that had been checked with Dr Lewis underwent significant late editing and so did not give a fair or accurate account of his views on these points. We apologise for this.

I don't really want to jump into this, but it seems that the Times' retraction was premature:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7883372/Amazongate-At-last-we-reach-the-source.html
Apparently the IPAM "Report" was just a posting to the WWF web site. "It was merely a brief, anonymous and unreferenced note on the exposure of the forest to fire risks."
Not to mention that IPAM and WWF have a significant economic interest in hyping the risk to the amazon to sell carbon credits.
It all stinks to high heaven.
#1 Posted by JLD, CJR on Sun 11 Jul 2010 at 08:34 PM
Christopher Booker has been a leader in the "months of evasions, obfuscation, denials and retractions" that have formed the stinking pile of accusations which people have dubbed "Climategate". I'm really not interested in reading any more of him given his lacking knowledge about the science, his readiness to spew sensational articles based on that lack, and his willingness to lie about it.
Same goes for Delingpole.
#2 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 12 Jul 2010 at 01:43 AM
Curtis, I'm interested in your take on this (as Thimbles is what I would call a disinterested observer).
I'm actually confused here. Is Booker an evil guy just making up stuff? If so, is there an original report from IPAM that can be produced? Where are the peer reviews of this report?
The whole thing seems pretty binary to me. Is there is a report, or isn't there?
#3 Posted by JLD, CJR on Mon 12 Jul 2010 at 07:19 AM
There's lots of reports and you can go through them here:
http://www.ipam.org.br/biblioteca?arquivo=2010
For instance:
http://www.ipam.org.br/download/livro/The-IPCC-s-AR4-statement-on-Amazon-forest-susceptibility-to-rainfall-reduction-is-correct/357
Booker is quibbling about wording and sourcing when the veracity of the statements hold true. His strategy is throw enough sand in the air and you can blind some people.
If we know that is his strategy, why would the savvy among us bother looking at him?
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Mon 12 Jul 2010 at 12:47 PM
The IPCC claim that 40% of the Amazon rainforest is sensitive to small changes in rainfall has no substance, none what-so-ever..... and the IPCC, WWF, Nepstad and Lewis know that.
As Roger Pielke Jnr puts it, "Those claiming that there is nothing to see here are simply wrong -- the IPCC botched this one. The various defenses of this issue are an embarrassment. "
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/07/deep-into-amazonian-mud.html
If Columbia Journalism Review really do care about a 'strong press' then they should be arguing that Jonathan Leake, an actual investigative journalist, is due an apology because he was simply doing his job.
#5 Posted by Mac, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 06:02 AM
Quote, Nepstad, 1999, "Logging and fire can virtually eliminate previously undisturbed forest in regions with seasonal drought and high concentrations of wood mills, such as Paragominas in eastern Amazonia."
Quote, Simon Lewis, 2010, "it is very well known that in Amazonia, tropical forests exist when there is more than about 1.5 meters of rain a year, below that the system tends to 'flip' to savannah."
Quote, Brazil's National Institute of Space Research (INPE) and the Institute of Aeronautics and Space, 2007. "Global warming alone will cause an 18 per cent reduction in Amazon tropical rainforest by 2099 if the most severe scenario projected by the IPCC becomes reality (2-6C rise). "
These quotes do not support the IPCC claim that "up to 40 per cent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation".
Any journalist worth their salt would see that and act accordingly.
Jonathan Leake is due an apology.
#6 Posted by Mac, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 06:38 AM
Lets review the actual claims being made.
1. Logging and fire presents a greater immediate danger to the Amazon rainforest than long term climate change.
2. A reduction of over 25% in current Amazonia rainfall will see an increasing tendency for rainforest to become savannah.
3. By the most severe IPCC projections up to 18% of the Amazon rainforest is threatened by a potential rise of up to 6C in regional temperatures.
There is nothing to support the IPCC AR4 claim that "up to 40 per cent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation".
What did Jonathan Leake do wrong?
#7 Posted by Mac, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 07:17 AM
This controversy is getting a head of steam again in the media.
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/07/12/14690796.html
The story has changed from the initial controversy over the use of gray literature to the defenses that the WWF, Nepstad, Lewis and the UK Guardian have employed to sustain their unsupported claims.
It was not the orginal crime that did for Richard Nixon but the cover-up that followed.
The WWF's reputation could get quite a mauling in the press over Amazongate once journalists realize the potential $millions that the organization is set to benefit from REDD.
#8 Posted by Mac, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 07:55 AM
And this is important because?
The statements are true. They were confirmed experimentally in the Amazon in 2007:
http://www.ipam.org.br/download/livro/Mortality-of-Large-Trees-and-Lianas-Following-Experimental-Drought-in-an-Amazon-Forest/358
and we've seen how man made disruptions in rainfall patterns (caused by sulfur emissions) can change the landscape in Africa from forest to grass to desert.
There's mistakes, like those in citation, and there's scandal. The mistakes you are dancing around with don't rise to the level of scandal. You must be getting pretty desperate to scarp the bottom of the climate gate barrel to pull out sourcing issues.
#9 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 10:20 AM
Quote, Nepstad, 2007, "A severe, four-year drought episode was simulated by excluding 60% of incoming throughfall during each wet season using plastic panels installed in the understory of a 1-ha forest treatment plot, while a 1-ha control plot received normal rainfall."
This was a experiment in common sense. Deprive the rainforest of 60% of its normal rainfall and it will wither and die. (Go straight to the top of the class)
That ties in with what Lewis stated, namely, "it is very well known that in Amazonia, tropical forests exist when there is more than about 1.5 meters of rain a year (75% of normal rainfall), below that the system tends to 'flip' to savannah."
However, and this is important, a simulated severe four year drought excluding 60% of incoming throughfall is NOT a slight reduction in precipitation.
The IPCC used scientifically unsupported gray literature to state, "up to 40 per cent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation".
Instead of offering a retraction and correcting that error the IPCC, WWF, Nepstad and Lewis have used different arguements to sustain that unsupported assertion or distance themselves from the orginal claim, in fact the WWF have now done both.
If politicians had behaved this way we would applaud journalists for exposing such behaviour.
All Jonathan Leake did was his job. To be criticised is such a manner "Shameful Obstinacy at The Sunday Times" is outrageous.
An apology should be forthcoming.
#10 Posted by Mac, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 11:42 AM
Again, what is the objection? To the word "slight"? To the citation? The tone of the phrase "Up to 40%"?
First it was claimed that the statement came from some enviro-hippie pamphlet and therefore it should not have been used because it wasn't sourced to scientific works.
Now you claim that the sin is that it came from IPAM, but that it was an improper paraphrase and citation.
Now these would be very important if you could show that by these errors the statement was fraudulent. However:
a) the statement itself was an estimate that predicts "between 0 and 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation", so the only way you can establish this is false is by proving that "No! 0% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation" or "No! Over 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation". Have you done either? No? So where is the scandal?
b)the IPCC didn't even define what "slight reduction in precipitation" means, which means you have to go back to the Nepstad papers to see what that change means. It was meant to be a presentation of the general science, not a published paper for pedants to crawl over.
b again) the statement isn't false. In 2005 there was a drought that produced the kind of precipitation change the IPCC was alluding to and it had a drastic effect on the rainforest, turning it from a carbon sink into a carbon stack, going from absorbing 2 billion tons of carbon to emitting 3 billion, a net change of 5 billion:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/revenge-of-the-rainforest-1638524.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5919/1344?ijkey=QKJSaOQ76EHlI&keytype=ref&siteid=sci
And even if all the Roger Pielke business was sound, that doesn't mitigate the reason why Leake got in trouble. He took the words of a scientific expert and misrepresented them to suit his scandal narrative.
And for that he deserves an apology? For misrepresenting the science and the words of his sources, we should apologize to him?
Yeah. we'll get on that.
#11 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Tue 13 Jul 2010 at 01:15 PM
... but here are the killer quotes from a NASA funded study that concluded in 2010 that Amazon rain forests were remarkably unaffected in the face of once-in-a-century drought in 2005.
Arindam Samanta, Boston University, study author. "We found no big differences in the greenness level of these forests between drought and non-drought years, which suggests that these forests may be more tolerant of droughts than we previously thought."
Sangram Ganguly, study author, "Our results certainly do not indicate such extreme sensitivity to reductions in rainfall."
Dr. Jose Marengo, a Brazilian National Institute for Space Research climate scientist, commenting on the study, " "The way that the WWF report calculated this 40% was totally wrong, while (the new study) calculations are by far more reliable and correct."
Jonathan Leake is due an apology for simply reporting the IPCC published an unsupported assertion as a scientifc fact.
Jonathan Leake is due an apology from the WWF for the way it has behaved in this entire matter to limit their exposure to valid criticisms. They simply tried to kill this story by attacking the messenger.
Jonathan Leake is due an apology from Nepstad and Lewis who deliberately went out of their way to obscure the facts surrounding the actual science.
Finally, Jonathan Leake is due an appology from Curtis Brainard who acted more like an advocate than a journalist.
#12 Posted by Mac, CJR on Wed 14 Jul 2010 at 07:17 AM
Sorry Charlie.
That study was based on satellite observation of the canopy, not a measurement of wide spread sample populations over a period of 30 years. The claim it was debunking was not that "rainforests are affected negatively by drought", it was a claim but forth by earlier satellite observation that "short term drought produces more greening in the forest due to the intensity of cloudless sunlight".
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL042154.shtml
Simon Lewis also did a write up on these claims on Real Climate:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/up-is-down-brown-is-green-with-apologies-to-orwell/
but what you need to understand is that the satellite observations could not give much information on the state below the canopy. Bigger trees have larger deeper root systems that could extend below the soil's dry layer preserving the canopy. The less deeply rooted plants under the canopy? Not so much.
#13 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Wed 14 Jul 2010 at 11:12 AM
..........and this just published study (12th July 2010) blows the IPCC, WWF, Nepstad and Lewis completely out of the water.
http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2010/2010-17.shtml
Key quote, Jeffrey Chambers, study author, "We can't attribute [the increased] mortality to just drought (2005) in certain parts of the (Amazon) basin—we have solid evidence that there was a strong storm (2005) that killed a lot of trees over a large part of the Amazon."
How many trees you may ask?
Between 441 and 663 million trees were destroyed - equivalent to 23% of the estimated mean annual carbon accumulation of the Amazon forest.
So the evidence we have is that logging, fire and storms have a much greater impact on the Amazon rainforest than extended droughts (never mind a slight reduction in precipitation).
Johnathan Leake is due one almighty apology from all concerned.
#14 Posted by Mac, CJR on Thu 15 Jul 2010 at 05:20 AM
Give me a break mac. First, yet again, this was a critique of satellite measurements of browning, not of the Phillips, on the ground, sample site observations.
Second, even if the study is valid, unless Leake is some sort of psychic he was unaware of it. Therefore, even if the even if the study confirms Leakegate's allegations now, that's no excuse for his misrepresenting the best known science and the words of the source he used, then.
Leake is not going to get an apology, nor does he deserve one. He's a tabloid hack who confirmed one of your biases, therefore he's your hero, but to an objective viewer of the data, he got quotes from a source, misrepresented the story he was going to tell to the source, twisted his quotes from the source to suit his new story, and published the trash forcing his publisher to appologize to the source he wronged. And the source has the emails to back up his claim:
http://www.desmogblog.com/forest-scientist-simon-lewis-files-formal-complaint-against-uk-sunday-times-over-dishonest-reporting-%E2%80%9Camazongate%E2%80%9D
So no, nobody is going to be apologizing to Leake today. His conduct based on what he knew and the standards journalists are supposed to employ with their sources was putrid. If you want to crusade for shameful conduct, be my guest.
If you want to continue painting shameful conduct as "investigative journalism", I hope you're doing it for the comedic value.
#15 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 15 Jul 2010 at 11:50 AM