More and more, reporters have been asking whether or not climate change could be responsible for this summer’s extreme weather. Thankfully, most have resisted the temptation to pin the events directly to global warming, placing them in proper climatic context instead.
For the last week, news outlets around the world have churned out stories about record-setting temperatures and blazing infernos around Moscow as well as flooding in Pakistan that the United Nations called the worst humanitarian crisis in recent history. To a lesser extent, there have also been plenty of reports about rain-induced landslides in China, severe droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, and the calving of an enormous iceberg from the Greenland ice sheet.
“The occurrence of all these events at almost the same time raises questions about their possible linkages to the predicted increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events” laid out in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2007 assessment report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported Wednesday.
Indeed, before the WMO even made that observation, reporters were seeking out scientific sources that could provide answers. Articles and blog posts from Reuters, The Washington Post, Agence France-Presse, the Telegraph, BBC News, the Associated Press, New Scientist, and The Economist have all come to the same basic conclusion: While no single weather event can be attributed to climate change, more extreme weather events can be expected in a warmer world, and the ones we’ve seen this summer fit the IPCC’s predictions.
The contributions from New Scientist and The Economist are among the best of the bunch. Unlike some of the others, which explore the indeterminate climate connection but leave it that, they both explain (quoting from the latter) that “The immediate cause of the [the Russian heat wave and Pakistani flood, which appear to be linked] is the behavior of the jet stream, a band of high-level wind that travels east around the world and influences much of the weather below it.”
Basically, the jet stream’s current pattern has become “blocked,” as meteorologists put it, by north-south airflows high in the atmosphere. As a result, a high-pressure “ridge” has become locked in place over western Russia (with cooler than average temperatures to the east). The ridge intensifies the hot and dry conditions on the ground, which, in turn, intensify the ridge in a positive feedback loop. Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Rob Carver offered technical but useful explanations of the situation at Weather Underground, and an explanation of blocking is available at the National Weather Service’s Web site.
Peter Stott, the head of the climate monitoring and attribution at the U.K.’s Met Office, had an enlightening column in the Guardian explaining why the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods might be linked, and delved into their connection to climate change. Wired Science’s Brandon Keim delivered a nice, clear explanation of the linkage between the weather events in Asia as well.
There were missteps, of course. The Telegraph mentioned the jet stream’s role in extreme weather, but its importance was obscured by the paper’s unfortunate decision to run the headline, “Climate change experts say global warming could be the cause.” Worse still was the BBC, which didn’t mention the jet stream at all (it only referred to “circulation anomalies”) and ran the headline, “Climate change ‘partly to blame’ for sweltering Moscow.” Such language—which suggests that we can, in fact, attribute specific weather events to global warming—should be strictly avoided.
Still, almost every outlet eschewed the temptation to say, “Look there! I give you global warming!” The New York Times’s Tom Zeller, Jr. saw that temptation coming at the end of July. In a smart piece for The Week in Review, he reminded readers that climate skeptics had seized on unusually cold weather last winter in order to mock climate science, and warned against resorting to such antics in support of it:
In any debate over climate change, conventional wisdom holds that there is no reflex more absurd than invoking the local weather.
And yet this year’s wild weather fluctuations seem to have motivated people on both sides of the issue to stick a finger in the air and declare the matter resolved — in their favor.
Last week, New York Times blogger Andrew Revkin provided a specific example of why scientists are reluctant to attribute single weather events to climate change. In a post about the calving of a massive iceberg from the Greenland’s Petermann Glacier on August 5, he quoted Andreas Muenchow, an oceanographer at the University of Delaware, who spotted the breakaway ice.
According to Muenchow, air temperatures had very little to do with the event, because the glacier is losing more 80 percent of its ice from below, where part of it floats on the ocean. In order to make the connection to global warming, one would need to prove that temperatures under the ice have increased, and Muenchow said he simply doesn’t have the data to do that. In a word of caution against getting ahead of the science, he added:
Global warming and climate change are very real and challenging problems, but it is foolish to assign every “visible” event to that catch-all phrase. It cheapens and discredits those findings where global warming is a real and immediate cause for observable phenomena. Details matter, in science as well as in policy.
Thankfully, there’s some indication that overwrought reporting isn’t needed to get policymakers and the public to sit up and think about the ramifications of manmade climate change. The Christian Science Monitor, The New York Times, and others have run blog posts and articles pointing out that Russian president Dimtry Medvedev seems to have reversed his position that climate change is not a priority.
“What’s happening with the planet’s climate right now needs to be a wake-up call to all of us, meaning all heads of state, all heads of social organizations, in order to take a more energetic approach to countering the global changes to the climate,” he said in late July, according to Time magazine.
Some of these articles are a bit too sanguine, however, and Climatewire deserves credit for talking to the World Wildlife Fund’s climate negotiator in Moscow, who thinks that “once the smoke clears” the Russian government will lose interest in doing anything about global warming. Political and public will are fickle things indeed. Nonetheless, outside Russia, other adamant opponents of addressing climate change are changing their positions, too.
A trip to Greenland this summer caused Michael Hanlon, science editor of the Daily Mail, to rethink his beliefs about global warming (tip o’ the hat to blogger Joss Garman, a Greenpeace campaigner in the U.K.). “I have long been something of a climate skeptic, but my views in recent years have shifted,” he wrote on Thursday. “For me, the most convincing evidence that something worrying is going on lies right here in the Arctic.”
In a separate post on Tuesday, Hanlon explained that he is still not alarmed by the prospect of global warming, and reminded readers that one hot summer does not an altered climate make. But he added that the trip Greenland had made the science “look a bit less equivocal.”
The Wonk Room’s Brad Johnson saw a similar, if less complete, change of tune in CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. While discussing the Russian heat wave with Rick Sanchez on Monday, Myers conceded that a “significant portion” of global warming is due to manmade greenhouse gas emissions. As Johnson pointed out, however, Myers flubbed an argument about solar activity as well, claiming that we are “now in a very hot sun cycle,” when in fact we are just coming out of a very dormant one.
Myers’ gaffe is yet another indication that there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of improving policymakers’, the public’s, and the media’s understanding of science. But the smart, accurate coverage of this summer’s weather, which placed the extreme events in proper climatic context, is a step in the right direction.

What about if it turns out to be globally the hottest year in history, as it's now on course to do? Will that be enough to say it's global warming? Six of the ten hottest years ever have already occurred in the past decade, and as you say, the Sun is about to enter a hotter phase.
I hope America's 'climate skeptics' (most of whom aren't skeptics at all but religious fanatics) will hurry up and concede that the world is actually heating up. Because I fear they have a whole string of fallback arguments to knock down behind that one.
First they'll say 'ok, so the world is warming, but you can't prove it's greenhouse gases' - even though it's basic science that CO2 warms the air. Then they'll say 'ok, so we're warming the planet, but I like it warmer'. Then, when food becomes prohibitively expensive, the Southwest runs out of water, and the Prairie breadbasket becomes a dustbowl, they'll say: 'Let's invade Canada and take THEIR country!'
#1 Posted by OD, CJR on Fri 13 Aug 2010 at 12:55 PM
Context and balance are great and all, but the fact is that the layperson has a very poor understanding of climate change, thanks in no small part to the media's desire to not ruffle any feathers by digging deep on this issue.
There are very uncomfortable conclusions to be drawn from the multitude of current observations, not just weather events. They include ocean acidification, phytoplankton die-off, accelerating arctic methane release, increased range of pine beetles due to warmer winters killing of huge swaths of North American forests, unprecedented dust storms across Asia, decline of arable land and the list goes on. Sea level rise is one of the lesser risks, most easily adapted to. The problem is that these dots are never connected, and the big picture is never tackled because the level of certainty required for journalists to state something as unassailable fact is a rarity in science. However, the worlds leading climate scientist at NASA, NOAA, UK Met Office, World Meteorological Organization, and NSF all state unequivocally that global warming poses significant risks to our existence in a span of decades, not centuries, and our current responses to it are insufficient. Is the risk 100%? No. Is it greater than 90%? Most scientists would say yes.
If the public remains uninformed, especially in light of a massive disinformation campaign by coal and oil lobbies who do everything to magnify the smallest shreds of scientific doubt, then the journalists are not doing their job well enough, plain and simple. The very fact that one sees so many climate related stories only when the weather is hot should tell you that the media is failing to provide context on the greatest scientific research project of this generation. To wit, the aforementioned events we are witnessing now are quite accurately predicted by the IPCC report, but they are also happening at a rate many years ahead of schedule. This should provide a narrative sufficient to capture the interest of people concerned for the future of their children, yet when most people hear about climate, they think about still think about "climategate" and Al Gore.
I suppose that it is important to not conflate weather and climate so as to preserve credibility for journalists who fear being labeled alarmist, but I don't think they take the issue seriously enough to go beyond the superficial and most easily available stories. Some notable exceptions are Elizabeth Kolbert and Kate Sheppard. We the people remain woefully uninformed to face down the biggest threat to civilization, perhaps the fourth estate should not be so eager to pat itself on the back for producing balanced, yet unilluminating, journalism.
#2 Posted by Gabriel, CJR on Fri 13 Aug 2010 at 03:21 PM
"The passengers heard the alarm bell ring and noticed a severe listing of the ship, however none moved in the direction of the life boats, most were totally unaware that the ship was sinking"
#3 Posted by richard pauli, CJR on Sun 15 Aug 2010 at 12:59 PM
It's curious that a host of recent climate news stories didn't make it onto Mr. Brainard's list:
Record low freezing temperatures all over South America.
Below average temps in California.
Below average temps in South Australia.
500 penguins freezing to death in South Africa.
All time low temp record in Antartica.
Somehow, all these stories slipped by our resident scientific "watchdog"...
It's kinda like there's some sort of "bias-like-thingie" going on.
Go figure..
#4 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Sun 15 Aug 2010 at 02:11 PM
The Washington Post has shown some tendency toward hype this summer, kind of leaning toward, "climate != weather, except when it's hot."
#5 Posted by Tom T., CJR on Sun 15 Aug 2010 at 11:02 PM
These increasing extreme weather events are predicted with the rising of global mean temperatures. This means average not without regional excetions. In regard to the resident skeptic, it's winter in South America, and while I'm enjoying a more moderate summer in SoCal, it's 100 today and has been all summer in Palm Springs. Some folks have a problem with complex scientic issues. The more of these events that effect world food supplies we have, the crazier these deniers will sound to even the most reluctant citizen. Dig hole in sand, insert head.
#6 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Mon 16 Aug 2010 at 03:28 PM
With temperatures in the high 90s day after day this summer in DC, I might not be thinking straight. But let's see if I have got Brainard's weather argument straight.
Brainard writes that we have "record-setting temperatures and blazing infernos around Moscow," flooding in Pakistan (called "the worst humanitarian crisis in recent history"), rain-induced landslides in China, severe droughts in sub-Saharan Africa and that enormous iceberg breaking off from the Greenland ice sheet.
But, Brainard insists, reporters should NOT write that any of this could be connected to global warming. Anything but that!
Hmm. OK.
So what does Brainard suggest journalists write instead?
That “the occurrence of all these events at almost the same time raises questions about their possible linkages to" a 2007 climate change assessment that predicted an "increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events.”
Everybody got that?
I wonder if Brainard has ever worked for a mainstream media outlet. (Before a virus disabled me, I did. I spent more than two decades writing for newspapers, culminating in a long stint at USA TODAY.) Trust me: If Brainard tried to write that kind of tortured English, he wouldn't be there long.
#7 Posted by Andy Viner Seiler, CJR on Tue 17 Aug 2010 at 07:48 AM
Andy,
What about the frozen penguins? What about the people fressing to death in South America? What about the fact that this will be the only year that Houston doesn't hit 100 degrees? What about California's near record low summer average temp? What about the all-time record low in Antartica? What about the lull in tropical storms?
HUH?
How do these little "fact-thingies" play into your "mainstream media outlet" mentality?
#8 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 17 Aug 2010 at 08:01 AM
What about the facts I mentioned that you left out? It's winter down there now. Extremes. Concentrate on local extremes in either direction.
#9 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Tue 17 Aug 2010 at 01:22 PM
It's winter now in Houston and California?..
Are you writing yourself prescriptions, "Dr." York?
#10 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Tue 17 Aug 2010 at 01:47 PM
It's 103 here in Cal today. In some places out here it has been all summer. What's your point, zippy? It's not winter in the southern hemisphere now? Just keep think', Butch.
#11 Posted by Mark A. York, CJR on Wed 18 Aug 2010 at 03:41 PM
I do wish that some our commentator would learn that pick a couple of specific spots on the globe does not make a case against the fact that the GLOBE is experiencing its hottest year on the instrument record.
#12 Posted by Trent1492, CJR on Fri 20 Aug 2010 at 02:58 PM
I suppose that it is important to not conflate weather and climate so as to preserve credibility for journalists who fear being labeled alarmist, but I don't think they take the issue seriously enough to go beyond the superficial and most easily available stories
Alex
Mutui Online
#13 Posted by alex, CJR on Wed 27 Oct 2010 at 10:36 AM
Set your own life more simple take the loans and all you want.
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#15 Posted by christel, CJR on Tue 30 Nov 2010 at 11:33 AM
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#16 Posted by katia, CJR on Wed 1 Dec 2010 at 01:28 PM
Weather is becoming crazy here after here. I guess we are in part responsible for that.
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#17 Posted by Julia Sanni, CJR on Fri 3 Dec 2010 at 05:49 AM
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#18 Posted by tonia, CJR on Wed 15 Dec 2010 at 11:02 AM
We all are responsible for that
#19 Posted by Siti Internet Online, CJR on Fri 30 Sep 2011 at 01:22 PM