By all prognostications, Tuesday’s election in Nevada won’t be a repeat of the Democratic runaway of four years ago. In a post last Wednesday (titled, “This is not 2008”) Ralston—leading the reporter pack—shared with readers why Tuesday’s results will inevitably be much closer.

Four years ago in Nevada, Democrats were an ebullient bunch. Thanks to Democrat Numero Uno, Harry Reid, they had secured an early presidential caucus, registered 30,000 people in one day and were infused with the spirit of hope and change. The Democratic machine didn’t need to turn on these voters…and Barack Obama destroyed John McCain by nearly 124,000 votes in Clark County on his way to a 12 percentage point landslide in the state.

…[U]nlike McCain, who barely made an effort here and had no real ground force, the Mitt Romney campaign, in tandem with the Republican National Committee, has managed a fairly effective workaround. The so-called Team Nevada folks are populated with smart, knowledgeable staffers, led by veteran Chris Carr, and they have given the effort at least the patina of credibility. But since early voting began…these folks and their national counterparts have behaved as if 2008 and 2012 were like comparing Delicious and Macintosh to show just how red this year was going to be in Nevada.

This is not 2008.

It’s now Election Eve, 2012. Pundits, pollsters, and political journalists have all weighed in. When the sun rises on Wednesday, we’ll hopefully have a good idea of which ones did their homework best and, therefore, are the ones to watch come 2016.


Jay Jones is a Las Vegas-based freelance writer who has covered political campaigns for various media outlets in the U.S. and for the BBC in the U.K.