Linda Douglass, who works at the White House Office of Health Reform, smacked the AP last week for its “so-called analysis” in an article describing how young adults could see their insurance premiums rise when health reform takes effect. Douglass was not pleased that the AP had decided to focus only on the role that age rating plays in setting those premiums, a legitimate story that has hardly been touched by the media. The AP had used information from the health division of the Rand Corp., a California-based think tank, as well as information from the consulting firm Milliman. In a study it did for the AP, Rand concluded that premiums for young adults would likely go up by 17 percent on average, or about $42 a month. Milliman estimated that the increases would range from 10 to 30 percent for young men—on average about 15 percent.
Those conclusions were too touchy for the White House, which is working in overdrive to sell the virtues of health reform to the masses. Douglass argued that the AP failed to include the effect of tax subsidies in helping people buy insurance, and the option to buy policies with lower premiums (and skimpy benefits)—the “young invincible” coverage that some insurers are already peddling. “A selective analysis of the cost to young people that excludes tax credits available to them is simply inaccurate,” Douglass claimed.
The AP did tell its readers that the effect of tax credits was not included in its analysis. We asked actuaries from Milliman about this. “Although subsidies may affect affordability for some individuals, they do not affect premium rates,” said Milliman actuary Jim O’Connor. “We did not consider the role of subsidies because subsidies are determined by income, which is a different variable than age.” Milliman spokesman Jeremy Engdahl-Johnson explained further: “The law is not going to affect everyone equally,” adding “it was problematic to use tax credits in an analysis when the AP first contacted us because we didn’t know exactly what was going to happen.”
Douglass noted in her blog that a single person making about $43,000 (or less) would receive a subsidy in the form of a tax credit. But she doesn’t reveal that the subsidy might not be high enough for that person to buy a good policy. That’s part of the story, too, and the AP touched on it by saying that $43,320 is the most a single person can make while still being eligible for a subsidy. “Credits will vary based on income and premium costs,” the AP told readers. We would have liked more explanation here, and we hope that the AP and other news outlets can dig into the affordability question and draw out these points in another story.
It seems to us that the White House blog was a case of the pot calling the kettle black. After stating the White House boilerplate about giving young adults the “security of knowing that they won’t be driven into debt by accident or illness as they are just starting their lives out on their own,” Douglass hit the AP for using insurance industry sources:
Finally, it’s important to take a close look at the source of some of the analyses in the story. For example, the piece cites research done by consulting firm Milliman, Inc.—a firm that has worked for the insurance industry for years. The bottom line is that the insurance industry will do everything within its power to fight these reforms that are going to take the power out of their hands and put it squarely in the hands of consumers.