The New York Times goes A1 with a breathless second-day story that shows some of the perils of deal reporting. This one’s about Microsoft’s $8.5 billion purchase of Skype and all the gee-whiz implications that could potentially maybe happen someday at some point.
The lede is bad, managing to be both reminiscent of so much reporting in Tech Bubble the First while also being a “no shit” lede:
Microsoft has peered into the future, and placed a bet that people the world over want to stay in touch with someone anytime and anywhere — preferably at no cost.
Who’s going to bet that people won’t want to stay in touch, but that if they do, they’ll prefer to pay for it? That’s followed by the the broadening graph:
In agreeing Tuesday to pay $8.5 billion to buy Skype, the pioneer in Internet phone calls, Microsoft is embracing a technology that is transforming the way people communicate at home and at work. And by stitching Skype technology into Microsoft products, used by hundreds of millions of people, the software giant could hasten the mainstream adoption of video communications, especially in businesses.
There are an awful lot of hedges and hyperbole in this piece:
…could hasten the mainstream adoption of video communications… could help it better compete… “could really change things for Microsoft…” could change the way people make even the most routine calls… “could give Microsoft a leading consumer Internet service…” aims to keep people seamlessly connected… could find a lucrative revenue stream… might also benefit from placing advertisements… analysts suggest…
Meantime, here are some of the adjectives:
“amazing”… bold… crucial… leading… seamlessly… formidable… “world-class”… lucrative… “great”…
Buried in the seventeenth paragraph: that Skype—at eight years old, long in the tooth for Webland—still loses money. That’s a critical fact. Again, what is this, 1999?
This is a longstanding problem with deal reporting, one Audit Managing Director Dean Starkman has written about repeatedly. Re-read the Times’s lead—and the whole piece for that matter—and then see Dean’s lede from four years ago:
Is it just The Audit, or does anyone else feel that business stories about mergers and acquisitions sound like they were written as though readers should break out champagne and throw their hats in the air?
And as Dean pointed out then, most deals destroy rather than create shareholder value for acquirers.
The Times does have a B1 story that reports on the troubles Skype has had (UPDATE: I completely missed that the paper ran a very skeptical column from Reuters Breakingviews on B2. The Times failed to refer it, but I should have seen it and included it in this post.) But it’s even more deal-centric than the A1 one, framed as a rah-rah, look-how-much-money-they-made piece about the investors who got Steve Ballmer to cough up $8.5 billion for a money loser. Any discussion of Microsoft possibly overpaying for the money-loser is buried in one sentence in the second-to-last paragraph of the B1 piece:
While some worried that Microsoft paid too much, Skype’s investors stand to profit immensely.
No kidding. There’s also no context here on the sky-high valuations spreading across Silicon Valley. Now, Microsoft is paying ten times revenues for Skype and “three times what Skype fetched 18 months ago,” as The Wall Street Journal puts it.
The Journal and the Financial Times do a far better job of emphasizing how high a price Microsoft is paying. The FT has the bubble context on page one:
The sharp increase in price in such a short period prompted warnings from some analysts that a new internet bubble was building, though Microsoft’s share price slipped only marginally on the news.
And the FT has a whole other story devoted to how the Skype transaction raises serious questions about a bubble, reporting in the deal that it has “eye-watering metrics.”
Here’s the WSJ’s page-one lede:
Microsoft racked up a whopping $8.5 billion phone bill to buy Skype even though there were no signs of other serious bidders, as the software giant moved aggressively to ramp up its growth…
- 1
- 2
Other interesting angles not explored:
Skype's major shareholder after ebay was Marc Anderseen of ye olde Netscape fame (interesting how Marc's approach to selling out has changed in relation to Microsoft).
How much of this is an attack on google gmail and voice which is a pain to set up, but offers free US and Canada calling?
Nice to have an instant mobile app that can do web calls on iPhone, Android and other platforms (and can do so over 3g on the iphone 4 in video in background process).
Youtube had a crappy business model and a horde of users when google paid stupid money for it:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15196982/ns/business-us_business/t/google-buys-youtube-billion/
and slapped ad views all over it. Guess what's going to happen to skype. (They should call it "BillBoard") Microsoft can offer an ad package that covers Bing, skype, hotmail, and who knows what copies google and facebook tech.
The small picture is the bubble and the ROI. The big picture is the war for the marketplace and ad space.
#1 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Thu 12 May 2011 at 09:33 AM
concur.
#2 Posted by edward ericson jr., CJR on Fri 13 May 2011 at 10:01 AM
"The small picture is the bubble and the ROI" sounds suspiciously like the stuff we heard a decade ago. "This is a new paradigm." "We'll lose money on every customer but make it up on volume." "Eyeballs, not revenues." "Revenues, not profit."
I mean, the Microsoft CFO actually dared to utter the acronym "EBITDA" during the press conference -- and not a single reporter even questioned him about it. That's sort of like saying, "We bought Skype because it practices Enron accounting" -- and then all the reporters jumped in the air and went, "Yay!" Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett's partner) famously called EBITDA "bullsh*t earnings."
Incidentally, Google has not earned a profit on Youtube yet. But Google also wasted a lot less money on Youtube. Heck, if Microsoft had bought Skype for the $1.65 billion that Google spent on Youtube, it might actually have been a decent deal.
#3 Posted by Tom, CJR on Fri 13 May 2011 at 04:45 PM
""The small picture is the bubble and the ROI" sounds suspiciously like the stuff we heard a decade ago."
No it isn't. I'm not claiming that the deal makes profitable sense on any sort of level on any sort of time frame. I'm not trying to herd people in to invest on online ads and web service blah blah.
I'm saying that this deal is less indicative of Microsoft's business strategy and more indicative of Microsoft's willingness to spend a lot of money taking out google (or any other rival as the former head of Netscape found out) and taking over their market.
Not business focused, war focused. That is why they are willing to completely over pay for established services with little profit to show.
Now if you're an investor and you look into Ballmer's intense eyes as he talks about taking out google and trying to reclaim its former computing dominance as the market shifts from pc to mobile (and from windows to android and IOS) do you really want to leave your money with them?
Ballmer's praying you'll say yes.
#4 Posted by Thimbles, CJR on Fri 13 May 2011 at 11:22 PM
The Skype deal is a steal for Microsoft.
From city to city, the U.S. is living in 2011 - fiber optic, microwave relay and satellite digital communication. However, within cities, we are living in 1876- copper analog phone lines a low compression, extremely limited digital bandwith.
The local phone systems drive nearly all the commerce in the U.S. and gaining the ability to access these systems and to interface with web applications is worth billions of dollars.
You think Microsoft cares about your Sunday call to grandma? Hardly.
The economic possibilities are limitless- instant searches for any services, parts or inventory to or from a voice line. Voice prompting and voice recognition makes hands free commerce. Video from a vendor to a customer on demand. Etc. etc.. etc...
What small business wouldn't pay Microsoft $500 a year to drive calls for services? What huge business wouldn't pay thousands?
#5 Posted by padikiller, CJR on Mon 16 May 2011 at 07:21 AM