I wrote a post called “The Real Dow” a couple of months ago about how the press almost always fails to put stock-returns in real-dollars context—something that fools people into thinking stocks are better investments than they really are. I mentioned transaction costs, but had limited data on them, so didn’t emphasize them.
But Bloomberg has them in its Chart of the Day story, and it’s a doozy, culled from a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report that analyzes stock returns after inflation and transaction costs, but also taxes. This is ugly:
While the S&P 500 returned an average of 9.5 percent annually for the 50-year period, the comparable figure after all the adjustments was a mere 1.3 percent, according to Bianco’s calculations. Both averages are geometric, a multiplication- based method often used to calculate average returns.
You’re not getting rich on 1.3 percent. Will you retire?
Of course, Wall Street being Wall Street, Merrill uses these numbers as an argument for why stocks are, you guessed it, cheap:
“Current levels of inflation, investment taxes and equity ownership costs are lower” than in past years, Bianco wrote. “We expect them to remain so for the foreseeable future.” The shifts justify a so-called forward price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 that’s seven points higher than the 50-year average of 15, in his view.
A twenty-two P/E is a long way from fifteen—and doesn’t quite smell right. Bloomberg quotes this but doesn’t give us the data to back it up and to let us see for ourselves. It should have.
Still, it’s good to have this issue covered, however minimally. Just remember when those financial advisers tell you to expect 8 percent to 10 percent annual returns that in real money over the last 50 years, you took home a measly 1.3 percent. As I wrote in January:
You have to wonder if there’s a connection to be drawn between the low savings rate and the idea that took hold in the last three decades, which still hasn’t been extinguished even after this miserable decade, that investing in stocks means you’ll get big returns on your money.

Ryan,
You quoted your writing:
“You have to wonder if there’s a connection to be drawn between the low savings rate and the idea that took hold in the last three decades, which still hasn’t been extinguished even after this miserable decade, that investing in stocks means you’ll get big returns on your money.”
A look at the first two charts here
“Real Dow & Real Homes & Personal Saving & Debt Burden”
http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
strongly supports the view that the first two (‘overpricings’ of stocks and homes) abetted the second two (‘misbehavings’ of undersaving and overborrowing).
The ‘fooling the people’ phrasing is very fair -- disgustingly so, for our free country.
#1 Posted by Ed, CJR on Fri 12 Mar 2010 at 12:21 AM
WALL STREET RAPE OF AMERICA
By clarence swinney | March 11, 2010 - 9:54am GMT
Big boost by Reagan + Bush Tax Cuts
1945--1% owned 30%-- Total Financial Wealth
1980-1% owned 20%
1989-1% owned 36% --(RR gift of 80% increase)
2007-10% owned 70%
2007-20% owned 93%
2007-80% owned 7% drip drip drip down
1980-2007-FLUSH UP--piss down
FOLKS WILL YOU SPREAD THIS INFORMATION SO THE PEOPLE WILL KNOW
Democrats are asleep. I do not understand why we do not have more LOUDSPEAKERS?????
clarence swinney
author- Lifeaholics-Workaholic to Lifeaholic
forthcoming-All American Party-How Democrats created the Great Middle Class and Conservatives are determined to destroy it
OR--United States Of America --now --Wall Street Rich Gambling Casino of America
#2 Posted by CLARENCE SWINNEY, CJR on Sun 14 Mar 2010 at 12:06 PM
$14,000 BILLION
Nice Surplus
NOTE—Numbers are rounded and are not exact. Simplistic. Purpose here is for an Overview.
Will be exact in my forthcoming book.
Obama is getting the Clinton $110,000,000 treatment. Smear Smear Karl Goebbels type.
GAO reported Newt Congress spent that amount on Hearings and Investigations smearing Clinton. 13 Hearings on simple land deal.
Lies and distortions on on each Obama proposal
Americans are too uninformed to note lies.
It is shameful when over 50% of Fox viewers believe Saddam was involved in 9-11 and that Osama Bin Laden and Saddam were pals. A poll revealed Fox viewers were least informed of viewers of major news outlets.
Americans are dumb. dumb dumb. Or, is it just Republicans. Or, Just Fox Viewers?
80% have been Shafted since 1980 by Conservatives For The Rich.
No Reagan or Bush Tax Cuts for the very Rich and today we would have a $14,000B SURPLUS
I need to qualify my numbers—I realize the Tax Cuts by Reagan were for several different things.Nonetheless, the total was 750 Billion that did not go to treasury. Most was for Rich.
The Bush Tax Cuts were definitely for the Rich.
A tax cut is money not received by Treasury. However, some may improve the economy thereby increasing Revenue for Treasury. My numbers are simplistic but a macro view which has much truth.
Reagan and Bush were for the Rich. Conservatives were for the Rich. Same ideology as Coolidge and conservatives in 1920s. Free Market knows best and is self regulating. Bunk. Bull, Nonsense.
NO DEBT. ZERO DEBT. $14,000 Billion SURPLUS
24 X $750B=$18,000B Revenue missed (1985-2009)
5 X $1700B=$8,500B Revenue missed (2004-2009)
$26,500B of Revenue missed
Debt is close to $12,000B
$26,500B of Revenue and we would have no Debt but a $14,000B Surplus
14,000 Billion Surplus Praise Allah Amigo ya al
Equal to 4 years of our budget. Wow!
Now you know why THIS occurred? Read this. HERE IS THE BEEF
In 1980 the top 1% owned 20% of Total Financial Wealth
In 1989 it was 36%.
An 80% Increase via good old Ronnie enrich the rich policies shaft middle class.
Even his David Stockman said his Tax Cut was Trojan Horse to enrich the rich.
He did a Great Job. Thanks Ronnie old pal.
At least, the people do not know what you did to them. They never read your record.
Bush took over and now 20% own 93% of Total Financial non-home Wealth.
Top 2.7% got four times as much of Bush Tax Cuts as bottom 80%.
Those are, primarily, Wall Streeter who own our major corporations and during Bush 8 sent 2,300,000 jobs to CHINA. While getting huge bonuses. While closing hundreds of plants in America. While buying our government. The new Wall Street of America formerly USA
All Aboard! Next Boat to China in 2010 carries all jobs from Hanesbrands
Winston-Salem NC jobless thank you
clarence swinney-political historian-Lifeaholics Of America
author-Lifeaholic--Workaholic to Lifeaholic Success
author forthcoming-All American Party—How Democrats created a Great Middle Class and Conservatives are determined to destroy it
#3 Posted by clarence swinney, CJR on Sun 14 Mar 2010 at 12:09 PM